Madmaxweather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Here we go again! The 12z GFS has a decent storm for the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This is about the same time frame where we licking our chops in regards to the Christmas storm and we all know what happened. The bus crashed! The pattern seems more favorable for this storm to become a reality. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Here we go again! The 12z GFS has a decent storm for the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This is about the same time frame where we licking our chops in regards to the Christmas storm and we all know what happened. The bus crashed! The pattern seems more favorable for this storm to become a reality. Thoughts? Verbatim, it kind of screws us by hanging back this little tail of lower heights over Quebec. You can see it really clearly at 174 at H5. But I think that's a very low confidence feature, and if it's absent, this has the chance of being my first southern stream induced snowfall of 2010-2011. Edit: Actually, the inch I saw on December 12 was southern stream induced. Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Oh great, you dun gone and jynxed the storm. NEVER start a thread about a storm 7 days away in a blocky pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm liking it. Probably the only time I've hyped a potential "good" storm in the 6-8 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Oh great, you dun gone and jynxed the storm. NEVER start a thread about a storm 7 days away in a blocky pattern. This is a weather board, so I guess if he wants to start a thread to discuss a possible upcoming storm, it's okay. However, I think we should make a rule that anyone who starts a thread about a possible storm beyond 120 hrs should be banned from starting any storm threads if the original target area busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I'm liking it. Probably the only time I've hyped a potential "good" storm in the 6-8 day range. You guys west of the Mississppi and 40N south are definitely in a better position for this storm than us in the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You guys west of the Mississppi and 40N south are definitely in a better position for this storm than us in the Great Lakes. We'll see. I think the northern extent can reach the QC, southern WI, southern lower MI, ON. Obviously depends on the amount of confluence hanging around, amongst other things, but the details are far from being resolved. Long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 6z GFS didn't have it so much, 12z run has it. A heckuva slow mover for some areas picking up alot of snow in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Lets discuss what can wrong? 1. Late phasing 2. Early phasing 3. no phasing 4.????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know how you guys feel about JB from Accuweather but he has been onto this storm since last week. He said this in yesterdays blog: "I want to again be clear that the storm I think will pack a real coast-to-coast wallop is next week, before the complete arctic attack occurs, and may lay down the snowcover for the Emperor of the North to attack with." Also said this about the cold coming: "This kind of coast-to-coast cold, not just regionalized where the West and Plains are cold, and the East warm, or Plains and East cold, West warm, has really not been seen since the great Arctic attacks of the 1980s. While the fun and games are in a 15-day period Jan. 8-22, the real core of this is more like the 10th-20th and I guess if you really want to hone as far as the coldest day nationwide... right at the midpoint of the weatherman's winter (December, January, February) Jan. 15. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And there we go, 12z GGEM has a 999mb low in SE Iowa at 144. I'll quit this hobby for the rest of winter, if this turns into another MN special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z GEM really shoots this thing north... from sw OK to se KS to se IA. There would be plenty of snow from NE/KS to MO/IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And this is what happens without that little tail in QC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 lol, I should have posted this in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The 1st vort was much stronger then the GFS had it...creates a major winter storm for the southern part of the region. GFS is nice for a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 like this one better for here, but lol at the U.P. Oh and geez on the GEM. Though verbatum still looks like mostly frozen way east of the L? Either way, I guess I have to like where I sit, on the SE fringe of the GEM and the N fringe of the GFS. Still see accumulating snow in both cases, but if we can get a nice compromise..BAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 And there we go, 12z GGEM has a 999mb low in SE Iowa at 144. I'll quit this hobby for the rest of winter, if this turns into another MN special. I cant see this being a MN Special but who knows with this winter If the blocking weakens does that create a strong SE Ridge? which would allow this solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Oh and geez on the GEM. Though verbatum still looks like mostly frozen way east of the L? Either way, I guess I have to like where I sit, on the SE fringe of the GEM and the N fringe of the GFS. Still see accumulating snow in both cases, but if we can get a nice compromise..BAM! Verbatim, most of the precipitation on the GGEM (east of the low) is in the "warm sector" (132hr). By the time it reaches here the enregy splits west & east (144hr). Apparently by that point the low has fully occluded, which tells me despite its further west track it's also picking up on the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I cant see this being a MN Special but who knows with this winter If the blocking weakens does that create a strong SE Ridge? which would allow this solution? I second that question. Wonder if the block and se ridge are related as to when the block weakens it allows for a se ridge, or the se ridge is strong enough to push the block away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I cant see this being a MN Special but who knows with this winter If the blocking weakens does that create a strong SE Ridge? which would allow this solution? Anything is on the table, but I certainly didn't see it cutting that far west before I saw the 12z GGEM. There's always scenarios where a block/confluence in the NE weakens, with a high coming in from the NW (depending on location and strength)...trough goes neutral/negative over the center of the country and the storm splits the uprights, sort of speak. It'll be an interesting system to watch, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 didn't we have a storm do this early in the season....almost due north from Kansas? I think this solution is as reasonable as any. Funny thing is that DT berated Harry and me in another forum last night for even suggesting that this could be a threat further north into the OV and lower lakes..... oooooooops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I will say this, if it it's going to cut this far north, I'd suspect the euro to sniff it out very very soon....euro loves to lock and load on lakecutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 didn't we have a storm do this early in the season....almost due north from Kansas? I think this solution is as reasonable as any. Funny thing is that DT berated Harry and me in another forum last night for even suggesting that this could be a threat further north into the OV and lower lakes..... oooooooops Although the low is technically further west, the precipitation wtih the GGEM itself pans out just like the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Doesn't some of the precip from the front wave end up getting most along I70? even if the 2nd wave is north, the 1st will lay down a swath of snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Doesn't some of the precip from the front wave end up getting most along I70? even if the 2nd wave is north, the 1st will lay down a swath of snow and ice. At least the upper level temps on the GGEM are too warm for snow with the frontal wave along I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Doesn't some of the precip from the front wave end up getting most along I70? even if the 2nd wave is north, the 1st will lay down a swath of snow and ice. no way...not if it moves north that far west....it'll pump that ridge hard ahead of it and best case scenario for south of i-80 is probably some sort of slop to rain....then back to leftover flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 didn't we have a storm do this early in the season....almost due north from Kansas? I think this solution is as reasonable as any. Funny thing is that DT berated Harry and me in another forum last night for even suggesting that this could be a threat further north into the OV and lower lakes..... oooooooops Where were they thinking? East Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 no way...not if it moves north that far west....it'll pump that ridge hard ahead of it and best case scenario for south of i-80 is probably some sort of slop to rain....then back to leftover flakes. That is not going to happen looking at the H5 chart. the Upper Levels might be to warm for all snow but you will see a major ice storm before you see slop. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html the zone is STL..then moves ESE from there....when you get to hour 120 you can see colder air in place, but qpf is lighter further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Where were they thinking? East Coast? of course...MECS...HECS... the usual. Remember where we are. The default is that any low pressure crossing the Miss river valley is a potential HECS until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I will say this, if it it's going to cut this far north, I'd suspect the euro to sniff it out very very soon....euro loves to lock and load on lakecutters. The Euro had a lakes cutter for this time period on its 12Z run last Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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