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Pattern/storm inverted trough thread early Jan


Damage In Tolland

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Be carefrul--I made that same observation earlier and Kevin and Steve accussed me of being a Debbie Downer. lol

26.2/17

People can comment if they don't like a run. It shouldn't all be people prancing around the tulips all the time. If it sux..it sux.

But also, people need to realize that major storms are not easy to come by. You just cannot have high expectations because the D5 GFS shows 2'. Could it happen..sure, but people need to look at it and say "ok cool..maybe we'll have something interesting."

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THE 84 HR nam? LOL

Anecdotally, it was the first to confirm we were getting clobbered (up here vs further south) 1/22/05....84 hour NAM.

Now...that said......with the exception of the GFS and it's ens, all models I've seen give a moderate to in some places heavy storm. NAM implies it, CMC confirms it. Anyone seen uncle? I haven't.

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First Ray's talking about how any snow is good snow, now you're seemingly upset at the fact this could still be major as depicted on the Euro and NAM, what is up with this?!

I just don't see this morphing into a huge snowfall..unless someone gets under a heavy norlun type band for 24 hrs. I think it' s more of a general regionwide moderate snowfall that last 24-36 hrs or so. there's too many players and pieces on the field for this to consolidate into something major.

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I just don't see this morphing into a huge snowfall..unless someone gets under a heavy norlun type band for 24 hrs. I think it' s more of a general regionwide moderate snowfall that last 24-36 hrs or so. there's too many players and pieces on the field for this to consolidate into something major.

Agreed for the most part, but I think I see more potential and that's very out of character for you. If that first low is weak and we fling it out why can't we bomb the second one that seems like it may end up in a good spot off HSE?

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I just don't see this morphing into a huge snowfall..unless someone gets under a heavy norlun type band for 24 hrs. I think it' s more of a general regionwide moderate snowfall that last 24-36 hrs or so. there's too many players and pieces on the field for this to consolidate into something major.

i guess this is a safe statement.....considering the chance of a major is relatively low and if one hits ....we will all be so happy and suprised that most forget it was ever made. but to say at 00z it was off the table was clearly wrong given various commets about the 5h set up.

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Still 102 hours out. Why do people always forget that at this range NOTHING is ever set in stone. ESPECIALLY in this pattern.

And This is mostly over the gfs? Or are the others starting to drop? It wont matter the gfs and others will pick the storm back up we always seem to get some sort of a shift in storm track or temps of precip at this time frame. Only to have the come back in few more runs.

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Agreed for the most part, but I think I see more potential and that's very out of character for you. If that first low is weak and we fling it out why can't we bomb the second one that seems like it may end up in a good spot off HSE?

I can't win. if I'm too positive I get accused of being King weenie..if I'm the slightest bit conservative..I get accused of gunning down everyone in my church.

I'm on board for a 4-8 or 6-12 inch type snowfall as of now..Nothing wrong with that

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I can't win. if I'm too positive I get accused of being King weenie..if I'm the slightest bit conservative..I get accused of gunning down everyone in my church.

I'm on board for a 4-8 or 6-12 inch type snowfall as of now..Nothing wrong with that

:lol: Didn't say it was wrong, I just expected with the potential we do have for you to be flinging weenies right now. Those snowfalls look great to me.

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I can't win. if I'm too positive I get accused of being King weenie..if I'm the slightest bit conservative..I get accused of gunning down everyone in my church.

I'm on board for a 4-8 or 6-12 inch type snowfall as of now..Nothing wrong with that

I think it's just out of character to see you shoot down the possibility for a major storm. As far as your predicted totals, I'm basically right there as well, but I see the decent possibility for more.

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I think it's just out of character to see you shoot down the possibility for a major storm. As far as your predicted totals, I'm basically right there as well, but I see the decent possibility for more.

it's his comments contrary to the bolded above ....which would keep the rev's circle of trust membership from being approved.

:scooter:

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I think what concerns me is that the ooz gfs clobberd us with heavy snow the 6z came back with less qpf more to the south. and now the 12z even further south. looks to be a trend. with that said gfs typically does this 3 days out only to come back with a major hit 48 hours out. can't wait to see what euro says. at least we know we will get at least some snow maybe a lot! Snowman.gif

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I heard that a lot a couple of days before the last storm and I got 14". We shall see.

Posters were jumping on and off with every model run last storm, how many times did we hear " this ones done, on to the next" and it ended up being a decent storm. I dont take any of these runs that serious, we're too far out to say anythings definate.

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Not to be outdone by Donny baseball...HM knocks one out the park

Just thought I would throw in a quick update about the January potentials...

1. The weekend storm coming up looks like a New England special. I would urge caution with these Norlun trough setups. Someone may end up with a lot more snow than what is being portrayed on the models, especially if the ratios are high.

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Posters were jumping on and off with every model run last storm, how many times did we hear " this ones done, on to the next" and it ended up being a decent storm. I dont take any of these runs that serious, we're too far out to say anythings definate.

It's too early right now to claim anything. Bridge jumpers should get back into their cars, and hug their families.

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Not to be outdone by Donny baseball...HM knocks one out the park

Just thought I would throw in a quick update about the January potentials...

1. The weekend storm coming up looks like a New England special. I would urge caution with these Norlun trough setups. Someone may end up with a lot more snow than what is being portrayed on the models, especially if the ratios are high.

Norluns always do that. If you're in the band, you overachieve.

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Not to be outdone by Donny baseball...HM knocks one out the park

Just thought I would throw in a quick update about the January potentials...

1. The weekend storm coming up looks like a New England special. I would urge caution with these Norlun trough setups. Someone may end up with a lot more snow than what is being portrayed on the models, especially if the ratios are high.

.....that is your natural tendency anyway....positive.

very nice to hear DON S that bullish and HM as well. gotta like Ray's locale for this event as well. I hope he jackpots with what ever falls.

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