Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS inv trough qpf is getting skinnier and shorter and less potent run by run. just an observation. hopefully the NAM is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 SREFs looked nice, but we are in la la land with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I have been thinking next week is the bigger deal.... Clearly my kind of coast hugger at 192 hours ..then it truncates and has the low well east at 204.... No kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Boy--the wind got taken out of the balloon here. No one has anything good to say except for threats down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Regarding the first storm, the NAM looks eerily similar to the Dec 26, 2004 storm. You got the OES in eastern MA. I believe Beverly got 7" before the actual synoptic snow even began. That storm was modeled to be a Norlun event, but the storm trended closer to the Cape with each successive run as we got closer in. That was a great storm. I got 8", but some areas near the coast wound up with 15-20". Not saying that would happen now 7 years later, but just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I have been thinking next week is the bigger deal.... I don't care if I only get 2-4" with this next one. I like the pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Boy--the wind got taken out of the balloon here. No one has anything good to say except for threats down the road. LOL..what? Everyone is still on board for a nice snowfall Fri thru Sat... unless you were dreaming of a big bomb type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 MPM, ru serious? LOL, still early GFS truncation for the loss those total precip maps are all screwed up, 6 hourly shows 2 inches in 6 24 shows 1 etc at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 DT has a chat room? yes from main page of wxrisk.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 MPM, ru serious? LOL, still early GFS truncation for the loss those total precip maps are all screwed up, 6 hourly shows 2 inches in 6 24 shows 1 etc at 192 We may have a new negative Nelly in SNE replacing Debbie Downer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Great setup for us, but don't do it to yourself. YEs I noted that an noone responded :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 LOL..what? Everyone is still on board for a nice snowfall Fri thru Sat... unless you were dreaming of a big bomb type storm I'm speaking of the volume of posts and the shift of them from this weekend to next week. That' all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This upcoming week is in some ways similar to what happened a couple of weeks ago. Where the set up for the first storm was ok but it just went out to sea with a second storm coming up after it was the better looking of the two and ended up being the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 If all we get is the inverted trough scenario then I think realistically most people shouldn't be thinking more than 6 inches. Yes Will had pointed out inverted troughs that really nailed us (or NE) in the past, but just as a practical matter I'm not gonna go nuts over the potential from an I.T. alone. But still hoping we can get the actual low to pop closer to the coast.... GFS inv trough qpf is getting skinnier and shorter and less potent run by run. just an observation. hopefully the NAM is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 See, at least the Euro and Canadian have a weak low preceding the main event. The gfs develops it into a sub 990mb low. That's my only question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This run blows f unless a jackpot of 4-6 in parts of CT and eastern NY State from inverted trof are what you want. BOS maybe an inch or 2 if that. like what I have been saying since the last storm.I will take inverted trophs/deformation zones instead for now on.After seeing what they can do over ny/nj who would want anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Canadian is more of an eastern MA/RI special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Canadian is more of an eastern MA/RI special. Jackpot 3-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't care if I only get 2-4" with this next one. I like the pattern going forward. hasn't everyone been saying that since t-giving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Canadian is a little less "diggier" with the ULL, but drives a nice spoke underneath sne, that gets the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hasn't everyone been saying that since t-giving? Well I had over 22" in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS says back-to-back sharp latitudinal gradients? meet the new year, same as the old year. No reason to panic yet though. The only thing that seems inevitable right now is an arctic outbreak, which I welcome whole-heartedly, heating bills aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 given the tenuousness of this whole set up I am totally intrigued to see what the Euro does. Wouldn't be surprised to see a stemwinder for Friday. Then 18z latches on and we are all up for 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Today was supposed to be a clipper day, bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Man the gfs ensembles really blow up that first low, that kills us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 See, at least the Euro and Canadian have a weak low preceding the main event. The gfs develops it into a sub 990mb low. That's my only question. I had mentioned on the 1st page of this thread that the 1st piece that ejects out of the south is fouling this all up, It gets to far north then trys to retrograde back NW enough to pull the 2nd low that we want ESE......Weaker is better or further east out of the way i think is best....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS says back-to-back sharp latitudinal gradients? meet the new year, same as the old year. No reason to panic yet though. The only thing that seems inevitable right now is an arctic outbreak, which I welcome whole-heartedly, heating bills aside. Any winter weather is better than no winter weather. We'll get both (Steve and Kevin--needed to say this lest you think less of me!) 26.3/16, stray flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Well I had over 22" in December. Wouldn't the GGEM give all of SNE some snow? Looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ensemble mean says no one gets more than in inch or 3....well maybe GON gets 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Wouldn't the GGEM give all of SNE some snow? Looks like it Yeah it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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