ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well red flag for potentially localized hvy totals. Those kind of qpf totals with this setup. Anytime we have a potent ULL going under us we have to watch out for something big. Its a more extreme version of "any time there is a ULL overhead we have to watch for light snows"....when it goes under us, the threat for heavy snow is always there. Because its more of an inverted trough, it will be tough to pin down who gets the heaviest...we could see a lot of people get screwed or we could see a larger area of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I hope this is the beginning of the 'upwards' trend in QPF for the region. Looking at the model evolution and duration, I would be willing to bet some get under the .5-.7 blue bracket on the next 1 or 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Spurs. Don't know where i got Miami from......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thankfully we have a big C's game towards the end of the dead zone tonight. Yes Dom, big C's game, although how much does it matter if KG is not playing tonight? I disagree. How is this the worst GFS run?? I agree with you Scot, this is far from being the worst GFS run. The energy involved in the northern stream will likely continue to muck up the mid levels until this timing issue becomes resolved. I expect this around tomorrow's 12z runs or not until 00z Friday runs. Phil, do you think we can reach warning criteria snows? GFS wants to develop a CCB over us or just a tad to the north of us from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS ensembles with next week's storm are maybe 70 miles se of the BM. Better than the op anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hmmmmm ..... another model takes a step north. Climo FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS ensembles with next week's storm are maybe 70 miles se of the BM. Better than the op anyways. Ensembles look nice for both this weekend (nice in a tempered down expectation version) and next week. And the OP model brought 492 thicknesses overheard in the fantasyland range....now THAT'S cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Some of the SREF members had that qpf max near and just E of the Cape further west over the region....so that is what we can hope for if you want to try and get greedy for a larger event. I don't think that would describe any of us here........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 In fairness we think everything is a nice setup for snow right up until we get nothing. lmao i am a weenie. yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not true , I think you need to know who to listen to.Whiffs happen but I take the word of some here before ANYONE. Trying to put a group monikor on all is silly. As we thought is a joke originated here for LOL stuff. Come to a GTG and meet the guys some day, it's not all about a bar stool, you might be surprised some here actually are as intelligent as you. I know you have plans with the kid but someday hopefully you will. None of us would be here if we didn't have the ability to see the silver lining which in most cases is more snow, a closer pass of a hurricane, severe storms or a bigger flood. We focus on how storms can be a better hit while quite often ignoring how they can be an easy miss and that's fine it's the nature of the hobby/job/science. As far as the GTG goes maybe in the summer there would be interest in Newport, the chart room/cataumet, or places up in Plymouth through Hingham where I met weathafella last year. I'd do a ski GTG too. This winter may very well set the record for number of bombs modeled that did not verify. Worst GFS run regarding this system yet is this 18z run. Those limey green puck level QPF paints are usually fuzzy cus and virga/flurries in partly sunny and the GFS is almost succeeding at drilling all that mechanical power and potential through the area while not producing anything - real close to pulling that off. Interesting. The other thing that is new about this over the last 24 hours is that the 500mb surface is weakening ....not deepening. That may be an artifact of failing ...pretty much any cyclogensis at this piont, but it's hard to say. I don't disagree really. I just hope it's in process to a better solution. The 18z is trying to make a move to reforming south of us faster which in the end would be a good thing. surface low is one place, 8h low another, 7h further sw and 500mb furthest sw. 3 days out still plenty of time to change and we can be certain at 0z we will see more change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 well harvey L just spelled out every possiblity under the sun during the 6pm cast. seems to like the coast for 3-6" but in typical harvey fashion did not make a snow total map, just talked up the futurecast model maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There's some pretty good weenie solutions on the 18z GFS ensembles for the system next week...a lot of timing discrepancy though....some members are hitting us by 138h and others don't until 168h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 well harvey L just spelled out every possiblity under the sun during the 6pm cast. seems to like the coast for 3-6" but in typical harvey fashion did not make a snow total map, just talked up the futurecast model maps. Always one of the most reasonable. I would say the same thing...and not commit to totals yet, but outline that the most likely possibility is for an advisory 3-6" type snow for a lot of area....with perhaps a chance at a bit more than on the coast while also saying there could be spots that get a lot less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There's some pretty good weenie solutions on the 18z GFS ensembles for the system next week...a lot of timing discrepancy though....some members are hitting us by 138h and others don't until 168h. Do you have a link for the individual 18z members? Edit: Nevermind! Ewall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Do you have a link for the individual 18z members? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Taken from this page http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There's some pretty good weenie solutions on the 18z GFS ensembles for the system next week...a lot of timing discrepancy though....some members are hitting us by 138h and others don't until 168h. Will do you see that as a very low probability? Some people seem to be jumping the gun and comparing it to KU events, but I think most of us have it well under control. Just noting the enhanced potential for something big perhaps occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Taken from this page http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallmref.html thanks anyways! I should have looked a little deeper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Will do you see that as a very low probability? Some people seem to be jumping the gun and comparing it to KU events, but I think most of us have it well under control. Just noting the enhanced potential for something big perhaps occurring. Yeah I would keep expectations tempered for next week. One good trend for the coast and M.A. is that the NAO block seems to be hanging on a bit longer/stronger than previous runs...so that would help prevent some of the more inland tracks that we have seen on occasion the past 2 days. Most of the tracks are going SE the past model run or two. But there's still a lot of things that have to come together. We really need to see what this first system does because a lot of the features from this first system will impact what happens afterward....particularly the strong vortex position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Should be a tough game against the heat....... Lebron says they're the Heatles now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z GEFS means show a possible developing CCB in the QPF fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 00z CMC was better than the 12z CMC, not a concern given the history of this model. BTW the 12z EURO ensembles are better with the handling of the SPV H5 low, they actually have strengthened the low since the 00z runs as it passes our longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z GEFS means show a possible developing CCB in the QPF fields. Between now and the time you leave, we'll get you one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Long duration...even 6 or 7 inches over 36 hours does not meet warning criteria. I think you need at least 8" if the duration is longer than 24h. It would be a high end advisory. Yeah I wasn't thinking of it in those terms..I was thinking everyone would have 6+ but forgot it was a long multi day event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah I would keep expectations tempered for next week. One good trend for the coast and M.A. is that the NAO block seems to be hanging on a bit longer/stronger than previous runs...so that would help prevent some of the more inland tracks that we have seen on occasion the past 2 days. Most of the tracks are going SE the past model run or two. But there's still a lot of things that have to come together. We really need to see what this first system does because a lot of the features from this first system will impact what happens afterward....particularly the strong vortex position. Will these are some great points-- especially noting that the first system needs to get out of the way first, as I think that might have been an issue with the Dec storms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well red flag for potentially localized hvy totals. Those kind of qpf totals with this setup. Yea should be interesting, nice moist airmass over a cold dome, not like our usual crazy dynamics with subsidence zones, closer to the coast and oro areas should max out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Between now and the time you leave, we'll get you one. Thanks, although I leave next Tuesday. I think this one will come through for me, I have one of those its gonna snow a lot feelings. Although one could say it is wishcasting or hoping for snow, but I am seeing the clear trends in the H5 setup as well as the tracks of the H7 and H85 lows and this is getting better. We need the northern stream energy to remain on the faster trends in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Does anyone think that CC will get warning criteria snows? 18z GEFS means show .50-.75" of QPF for CC and Islands and parts of SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Should be a good period of NW flow upslope snows as this system departs... hopefully that can make up some ground as the inverted trough moisture is definitely going to be southeast of the N.VT region. I'm out of town for the week so don't really care, but it would be nice to come home to a nice snowpack again. Looks like Stowe picked up 5-6" today in the upper elevations (3K+ feet) and 2-4" down in the town/populated area (800-1,500ft). Lets keep the snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah I would keep expectations tempered for next week. One good trend for the coast and M.A. is that the NAO block seems to be hanging on a bit longer/stronger than previous runs...so that would help prevent some of the more inland tracks that we have seen on occasion the past 2 days. Most of the tracks are going SE the past model run or two. But there's still a lot of things that have to come together. We really need to see what this first system does because a lot of the features from this first system will impact what happens afterward....particularly the strong vortex position. The never ending saga since it first appeared, the models, especially the Euro and it's ensembles breaking down the block continues. Man how about that AO forecast, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Does anyone think that CC will get warning criteria snows? 18z GEFS means show .50-.75" of QPF for CC and Islands and parts of SE MA. Has the GFS shown this on more than just this run? It seem every run it picks a different place to drop the most. Sometimes NE Mass, sometimes W CT, your place... The next 12 hours should make everything crystal clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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