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Pattern/storm inverted trough thread early Jan


Damage In Tolland

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The NAM is borderline trough porn, I'm all over it. Time to start getting the warnings ready for SW CT. I'm feeling mighty fine with that thing hitting me solidly for the better part of the last 60 hours of runs.

Probably should give it another 24 hours seeing as things will most likely change.

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This would be nice, just a little further south.

The 18z NAM is decent..all things considered. This whole setup will turn people grey, by MLK day. We may not know what's going to happen until it starts snowing..lol.

100-125 miles south and this is an entirely different situation. 100-125 miles north and it's craptastic.

The NAM is borderline trough porn, I'm all over it. Time to start getting the warnings ready for SW CT. I'm feeling mighty fine with that thing hitting me solidly for the better part of the last 60 hours of runs.

History has demonstrated that this year the last place you want to be is in the bullseye from 60-96 hours.

Awesome. Chalk it up for another awesome solution post Feb 2006

This really is spectacular. Heavy, heavy light snows.

The models change every single run but none have delivered a substantial hit in several runs.

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Looks good to me.

There's going to be some weird mesoscale things imo. These things always do that...and not just NORLUN troughs either. You throw in cold temps aloft with erly flow..makes it interesting to forecast. As long as we can get the PV to not stretch out like Gumby and role underneath us, the better we'll be.

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Main differences I am finding in the last four cycles of the NAM model is that the lead shortwave that heads out to sea is getting stronger. I don't know what it could mean for the overall H5 low, but it could end up tugging the H5 low further southeast. I like how the NAM holds the H5 low together throughout the run, unlike previous GFS and EURO/CMC runs where the models just sheared the H5 low as it came towards SNE. We just need this to happen a little big sooner and further southeast so that it can act to tug the surface low in closer to the coastline.

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There's going to be some weird mesoscale things imo. These things always do that...and not just NORLUN troughs either. You throw in cold temps aloft with erly flow..makes it interesting to forecast. As long as we can get the PV to not stretch out like Gumby and role underneath us, the better we'll be.

They can be prolific and unexpected snow producers too

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Obviously

100-125 miles south and this is an entirely different situation. 100-125 miles north and it's craptastic.

History has demonstrated that this year the last place you want to be is in the bullseye from 60-96 hours.

This really is spectacular. Heavy, heavy light snows.

The models change every single run but none have delivered a substantial hit in several runs.

i wouldnt say that for sure

the euro gave NYC practically nothing

i dont think we'll know until tomorrow night.

Good lord, does anyone have the debbie downer video ready? This is a sad place right now. :axe:

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BTW the euro ensembles develop zucker ridging in the west during the 11-15 day. So here's what we have on tap for now...

1) Day 7 Miller Ray potential

2) Deep polar PV digs in the west and pumps up heights in the east. Maybe some sort of a swfe or cutter...not quite sure, but it could be messy.

3) After this passes, we get ridging developing in the west, and some sort of a -nao block delivering more cold to the northeast.

There are differences in the GFS and Euro ensembles. The GFS is both stronger with PNA ridging and -NAO blocking and is frigid. The Euro is weaker with both and has more zonal type flow. It's still cold, but not quite as cold as the GFS..though the euro ensembles drive the cold in, at the end of the run.

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Hey Messenger, I can already see dramatic changes at H5 on GFS, at -03 minutes....unreal.

Time to turn to the RUC...

I think Feb 5 1978 is back on the maps as well as a bunch of other very snowy analogs. HPC has me in the 4-8 inch range so I know I'm as good as doomed. All that has to happen now is a radio show and Mike Seidel getting flown in from TWC and it'll be sunny and 60 on Saturday. If the RUC someday was 100% accurate and showed a dryslot riding over our heads many would deny it until the sun appeared.

---

DAYS 2/3...

...NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

EMBEDDED H7-H5 SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ROTATES MOVES FROM THE

GREAT LAKES/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A

SURFACE WAVE FORMING OFF THE JERSEY COAST. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO

FOCUS ON FRIDAY ALONG AN AXIS OF H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS FROM WESTERN

NY TO NRN NEW JERSEY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS...IN THE 4-6 INCH

RANGE...ACROSS THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS. PLAYED OUT A SLIGHTLY

SLOWER/FLATTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS

THE COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

MORNING...IE THE ECMWF/NAM BLEND...WITH CONTINUED SNOWFALL

TRACKING/MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND

LONG ISLAND INTO CT/RI AND WESTERN MASS. THIS ALLOWS FOR DAY 2

SNOW TOTALS APPROACHING 6-10 INCHES ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE

EASTWARD INTO LONG ISLAND SOUND...BEFORE THE SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKS

EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...COLD-SECTOR WRAP-AROUND

MOISTURE...ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SLRs ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE

ISOLATED 4-8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CAPE

COD...EASTERN MASS AND THE MAINE COAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE

SYSTEMS EXITS THE NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS.

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There's going to be some weird mesoscale things imo. These things always do that...and not just NORLUN troughs either. You throw in cold temps aloft with erly flow..makes it interesting to forecast. As long as we can get the PV to not stretch out like Gumby and role underneath us, the better we'll be.

The Euro kind of did this...has some good easterly flow and it produced decent qpf over the central hills. It was aided by ll convergence/inverted trough but you can tell there was some more general lift going on there.

I'm hoping as we get closer, we start seeing more synoptic lift...the models are starting to do that. If we can keep the ull pretty potent and have it track underneath us, then we could see something like the nam 700mb chart you posted but perhaps even a bit more robust.

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BTW the euro ensembles develop zucker ridging in the west during the 11-15 day. So here's what we have on tap for now...

1) Day 7 Miller Ray potential

2) Deep polar PV digs in the west and pumps up heights in the east. Maybe some sort of a swfe or cutter...not quite sure, but it could be messy.

3) After this passes, we get ridging developing in the west, and some sort of a -nao block delivering more cold to the northeast.

There are differences in the GFS and Euro ensembles. The GFS is both stronger with PNA ridging and -NAO blocking and is frigid. The Euro is weaker with both and has more zonal type flow. It's still cold, but not quite as cold as the GFS..though the euro ensembles drive the cold in, at the end of the run.

Where did the EC ens mean take the Miller Ray...

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The Euro kind of did this...has some good easterly flow and it produced decent qpf over the central hills. It was aided by ll convergence/inverted trough but you can tell there was some more general lift going on there.

I'm hoping as we get closer, we start seeing more synoptic lift...the models are starting to do that. If we can keep the ull pretty potent and have it track underneath us, then we could see something like the nam 700mb chart you posted but perhaps even a bit more robust.

Yeah I commented earlier, that the euro boosted qpf over your region....likely due to orographics. Almost like we talked about yesterday...lol.

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how common are Norluns over NYC area? and does this set up with the SPV Favor something out of the usual climo spots? pro's?

According to SnowGoose, norluns are much more common both to the south and north of NYC-- IOW both Philly and Boston are much more likely to see them (something having to do with the irregular shape of the coastline.) But Long Island is somewhat different climo, so Long Island can still get heavy snow out of a norlun that screws NYC. In short, the CWA is much larger than the width of one of these things lol.

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I am just worried (not worried, but feel bad), that parts of central and southern New England will be in between these two points of precipitation, I will call them. The first is the trough over NYC and CT, and second is the developing low in the Gulf of Maine. Since these two are developing somewhat separately of each other, couldn't a lot of people potentially get screwed in the middle?

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