dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That's what the Doc brought to the table, isn't it? Not really, It had it over Mass, You and i saw .25" qpf wheras down there was .50"....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not a bad run. Virtually everyone (or someone...lol..) gets a few inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 LOL Jerry. Trying to get a rise out of Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 nam now has lp in the gom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Through 78 hours, a rather small penis of 0.25 goes through Ray's BY and out to the ocean just north of BOS. Still going then. NAM works out great for everyone in SNE that doesn't like snow aside of SW CT. Manages to spin around and put us in the cake hole...Maine FTW. This storm could win the aware for most unique solutions inside of 72 hours by a storm since modern modeling began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Taken 0.25+ for 84 hours widespread. Screw zone begins in Plymouth CTY out through the Cape. I don't believe it will happen that way.RI is also screwed this time. I think 0Z tonight we'll have some better ideas and we probably won't lock anything in until nowcast or at least not before 0Z tomorrow night. Just a tough and weird setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 nam now has lp in the gom What a crazy run. Kinda gives me the FU but I like the general idea. What a painfully slow evolution this seems to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 nam now has lp in the gom Probably not the best place for a lost of us being south/southwest of the redeveloping low/8h lows. Funny solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 NAM spreads the love with a couple inches of snow for all of SNE..Better than 12 z...Euro is the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If this run actually verified I would probably get more snow out of this than I did with the Blizzard So would I--not quite true, but a very sad statement nonetheless! lol Solid 3-5". Edit: Didn't see 84. 5-7". 7 will beat the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 friday 00z at the earliest with any degree of confidence. disaster for the mets in the norlun zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NAM works out great for everyone in SNE that doesn't like snow aside of SW CT. Manages to spin around and put us in the cake hole...Maine FTW. This storm could win the aware for most unique solutions inside of 72 hours by a storm since modern modeling began. The good news is that I think it has exhaused it's supply of soloutions that suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 nam now has lp in the gom yeah...lol. looks like the ETA and a few of those SREF members. It helps me out on Sunday as the mid level lows move through SNE. I'll take a snowy Sunday of football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Taken 0.25+ for 84 hours widespread. Screw zone begins in Plymouth CTY out through the Cape. I don't believe it will happen that way.RI is also screwed this time. I think 0Z tonight we'll have some better ideas and we probably won't lock anything in until nowcast or at least not before 0Z tomorrow night. Just a tough and weird setup. If the NAM is close to right I'll be heading up for a day or two of skiing next week at SR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks like one jackpot over S. NY SW CT C. LI and then possibly another around Portland/ Lewiston maine. until the euro shows some consistency i think you gotta nod to the HPC 6-8 swath over S. NY LI SW CT. Meso models have liked this area better than any other. and watch for continuity near the portland area to develop in the next 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not really, It had it over Mass, You and i saw .25" qpf wheras down there was .50"....... Nice step in the right direction is what I would call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If the NAM is close to right I'll be heading up for a day or two of skiing next week at SR. the NAM looks a lot like the euro at the end getting that low into the GOM and along the Maine coast...which is encouraging i suppose over a single low east of nova scotia. what do we need to do to get that area of LP stronger and more prolific and take off quicker? (that is if anything can be done) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Great solution for the mountains of Maine. 7h low sitting SE NH right on the coast spinning moisture in. Not too windy so the snow won't get blown over the peaks this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It should be noted that the gfs had the norlun originally over bos-mht-rut.. I think it will make it back NE.. remember that conveyer belt last year will? Started in NY on the models 48 hours out then moved back right over ORH.. poured snow until it changed to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Climatology of the NORLUN Instability Trough: Initial Development and Use in Improving New England Snowstorm Forecasts Gregory A. Zielinski, Daniel K. Cobb and Hendricus J. Lulofs (National Weather Service, Caribou, Maine) "From these analyses we suggest that there are at least two NORLUN types. A Type I NORLUN appears to occur most frequently as a 25 to 50 mile wide band of heavy snowfall amounts with the axis of heaviest snowfall oriented NW-SE extending from the coast into the hills of interior New England. Synoptically, this type appears to be characterized by a weakening surface low moving into the St Lawrence River valley with a developing ocean storm too far to the east to affect New England directly. This situation is often associated with onshore flow of potentially buoyant air from 500 to 1500 meters above the surface ahead of a trough axis that connects the two low centers. A Type II NORLUN produces a snowfall axis that tends to mirror coastal topography in areas south of Mid-Coast Maine. In this case, there is only one low (i.e., an ocean storm passing too far to the east to directly affect New England) with a significant inverted trough extending to the northwest of the developing low center. The inverted trough appears to be the result of an advancing shortwave aloft with heavy snow along and ahead of the trough axis. However, the orientation of the snow bands tends to be parallel to the coastline and not necessarily parallel to the trough indicating that a secondary mesoscale response, such as coastal convergence induced by frictional differences between sea and land, may be more directly responsible for the maintenance of the 2 to 4 inch per hour snow rates. Consequently, geography of the coastline may be critical to development of a Type II event. We expect that these characteristics, as well as others discovered in the evaluation of additional NORLUN events, will be components of our conceptual model for the NORLUN instability trough." interesting now i'm looking for nor luns that have hit Long island SW CT. and there characteristics..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 mrg maybe should've waited a couple more days to go to Hunter. Looks like it'll be pretty good over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 how common are Norluns over NYC area? and does this set up with the SPV Favor something out of the usual climo spots? pro's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Right..which is what i was saying this AM..I just don't think NYC is where it rips. Nice to see the Euro give all of us advisory -low end warning snows I could see this trending better as we get closer. We are starting to see the model spit out more general qpf over SNE the last 12 hours...esp as the upper level low passes just S of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The good news is that I think it has exhaused it's supply of soloutions that suck. I could see this trending better as we get closer. We are starting to see the model spit out more general qpf over SNE the last 12 hours...esp as the upper level low passes just S of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This would be nice, just a little further south. The 18z NAM is decent..all things considered. This whole setup will turn people grey, by MLK day. We may not know what's going to happen until it starts snowing..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This would be nice, just a little further south. The 18z NAM is decent..all things considered. This whole setup will turn people grey, by MLK day. We may not know what's going to happen until it starts snowing..lol. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Still waiting for a lonely soul to post "GAME ON!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Still waiting for a lonely soul to post "GAME ON!" Kev will get right on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The NAM is borderline trough porn, I'm all over it. Time to start getting the warnings ready for SW CT. I'm feeling mighty fine with that thing hitting me solidly for the better part of the last 60 hours of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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