40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nope How is your 1978 thread doing....I imagine it's bustling with activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nope Hook and ladder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Great run anticipation, Scott......if that vort lobe is not there, this is a very impressive hook-and-latter event. OTS verbatim. Like Brian said, the flow is flat, and we need some downstream ridge amplification..not just that vortlobe to get out...but whatever. It's in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Like Brian said, the flow is flat, and we need some downstream ridge amplification..not just that vortlobe to get out...but whatever. It's in la la land. Yea, oh well.....not an H5 expert. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 129 PM EST WED JAN 05 2011 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 08 2011 - 12Z WED JAN 12 2011 ...A COLD PATTERN FOR THE NATION WITH FALSE APPEAL FOR STORM POTENITAL OVER THE US SRN TIER AND UP THE EAST COAST...HEIGHTS ARE TOO HIGH AND THE BALANCED WINDFIELD IS TOO FAST TO ALLOW ANY EMBEDDED IMPULSES TO DIFFERENTIATE THE FIELD ENOUGH TO CREATE A STORM...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS ON THE SURFACE LIKE THE END OF THE WORLD. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT AGAINST THE UNMITTIGAINING NUMBNESS ENNUI AND FRUSTRATION THIS WILL CAUSE AND ONLY HOPE THAT YOUR RESPECTIVE FOOTBALL TEAM THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE NFL PLAYOFF SEASON WINS ENOUGH TO DO WHAT LITTLE IT CAN TO APPEASE FOR THE OVERBEARING SENSE OF LOSS THIS PATTERN IS UNIQUELY QUALIFIED TO PUT THEM THROUGH...BEST SUGGESTION IS TO TAKE A TWO HOUR NAP AND WHEN YOU AWAKE PARTAKE IN A NEW PASS-TIME THAT TAKES YOU AWAY FROM THIS WASTE OF TIME UNTIL SUCH TIME THAT THE ATMOSPHERE DECIDES TO STOP F WITH OUR HEADS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 129 PM EST WED JAN 05 2011 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 08 2011 - 12Z WED JAN 12 2011 ...A COLD PATTERN FOR THE NATION WITH FALSE APPEAL FOR STORM POTENITAL OVER THE US SRN TIER AND UP THE EAST COAST...HEIGHTS ARE TOO HIGH AND THE BALANCED WINDFIELD IS TOO FAST TO ALLOW ANY EMBEDDED IMPULSES TO DIFFERENTIATE THE FIELD ENOUGH TO CREATE A STORM...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS ON THE SURFACE LIKE THE END OF THE WORLD. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT AGAINST THE UNMITTIGAINING NUMBNESS ENNUI AND FRUSTRATION THIS WILL CAUSE AND ONLY HOPE THAT YOUR RESPECTIVE FOOTBALL TEAM THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE NFL PLAYOFF SEASON WINS ENOUGH TO DO WHAT LITTLE IT CAN TO APPEASE FOR YOUR OVERBEARING SENSE OF LOSS THIS PATTERN IS UNIQUELY QUALIFIED TO PUT THEM THROUGH... I'm en route to your house with the paramedics....IT WILL SNOW AGAIN JOHN....IT'S NOT WORTH IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 129 PM EST WED JAN 05 2011 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 08 2011 - 12Z WED JAN 12 2011 ...A COLD PATTERN FOR THE NATION WITH FALSE APPEAL FOR STORM POTENITAL OVER THE US SRN TIER AND UP THE EAST COAST...HEIGHTS ARE TOO HIGH AND THE BALANCED WINDFIELD IS TOO FAST TO ALLOW ANY EMBEDDED IMPULSES TO DIFFERENTIATE THE FIELD ENOUGH TO CREATE A STORM...EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS ON THE SURFACE LIKE THE END OF THE WORLD. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT AGAINST THE UNMITTIGAINING NUMBNESS ENNUI AND FRUSTRATION THIS WILL CAUSE AND ONLY HOPE THAT YOUR RESPECTIVE FOOTBALL TEAM THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE NFL PLAYOFF SEASON WINS ENOUGH TO DO WHAT LITTLE IT CAN TO APPEASE FOR THE OVERBEARING SENSE OF LOSS THIS PATTERN IS UNIQUELY QUALIFIED TO PUT THEM THROUGH... Hook-and-chair: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So Euro delivers possible large geographic area low end warning (though probably not considering duration), NAM not much different, GFS bupkis for most, Crazy Unc....nearly bupkis for most. CMC like Euro. CMC/ECMWF/NAM. A menage a trois made in heaven.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yea, oh well.....not an H5 expert. lol The flatness of the flow is not the issue: it's the speed of the flow that is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 How is your 1978 thread doing....I imagine it's bustling with activity. Does anyone know when the radio show is scheduled? I didn't even know there was a 1978 thread. I need to read the other side more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 .25-.50 is nothing to laugh at...but a dumping....it is a bit less than the euro thru 72 for most GFS ENS are a dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm en route to your house with the paramedics....IT WILL SNOW AGAIN JOHN....IT'S NOT WORTH IT! Que - that's a commiserationg joke for all to share. frankly, I couldn't care any less. I just like the analysis part of it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So Euro delivers possible large geographic area low end warning (though probably not considering duration), NAM not much different, GFS bupkis for most, Crazy Unc....nearly bupkis for most. CMC like Euro. CMC/ECMWF/NAM. A menage a trois made in heaven.... Don't forget the NoGaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The flatness of the flow is not the issue: it's the speed of the flow that is the problem. isn't that where the blocking steps up to slow things down as they approach the NE / benchmark area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So Euro delivers possible large geographic area low end warning (though probably not considering duration), NAM not much different, GFS bupkis for most, Crazy Unc....nearly bupkis for most. CMC like Euro. CMC/ECMWF/NAM. A menage a trois made in heaven.... You forgot the NOGAPs and JMA which are both great hits for some. The GFS blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Que - that's a commiserationg joke for all to share. frankly, I couldn't care any less. I just like the analysis part of it - BS....you were crying like a schoolgirl like I was when the precip field shredded, late on that Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 How is your 1978 thread doing....I imagine it's bustling with activity. 1) wrong - it was not a 1978 thread. You just reflected beautifully the on-going selective reading problem that goes on around here 2) if one reads it, it elaborated on what was wrong with the flow - namely, too much compression, too much wind speed. It was modeled then, and it appears still be problematically handled now. Can we somehow thread the needle - perhaps. But the probability stands in the way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yea, oh well.....not an H5 expert. lol No you were right as well...just saying we need some downstream ridging. You're getting better with H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1) wrong - it was not a 1978 thread. You just reflected beautifully the on-going selective reading problem that goes on around here 2) if one reads it, it elaborated on what was wrong with the flow - namely, too much compression, too much wind speed. It was modeled then, and it appears still be problematically handled now. Can we somehow thread the needle - perhaps. But the probability stands in the way at this point. Wrong-what I reflected beautifully was an effective means of quelling despair with humor. Lighten up, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 As of now, it shouldn't be bad...perhaps at worst, a delay. Most of the snow is Friday night. Nice. I'm psyched valley ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 isn't that where the blocking steps up to slow things down as they approach the NE / benchmark area. No, not really... When a block develops, it will lower heights near 45N, which in turn has the effect of transitively increasing the gradient in the deep S and SE to above normal amount. Other times, those heights are initially lower, such that when the block evolves, the transitive effect is less gradient, thus balanced wind velocity -- which means there is less wave interference, and you get the N-S orientation to the flow. This is not one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No you were right as well...just saying we need some downstream ridging. You're getting better with H5. Well, the vort lobe I got from you....I didn't deduce that myself, but I am slowly learning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro wants to give a cutter. Some of the ensembles hinted at this, but also has a swfe look too. Sometimes these happens when the trough is so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wrong-what I reflected beautifully was an effective means of quelling despair with humor. Lighten up, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 .25-.50 is nothing to laugh at...but a dumping....it is a bit less than the euro thru 72 for most nice dryslot in florida. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro wants to give a cutter. Some of the ensembles hinted at this, but also has a swfe look too. Sometimes these happens when the trough is so far west. Well, that was a hell of a way to cut a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, that was a hell of a way to cut a storm. I was hoping snowNH would post another weenie speech with that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wrong-what I reflected beautifully was an effective means of quelling despair with humor. Lighten up, bro. Dude I realize you were kidding, but you still just reflected beautifully on the selective reading that goes on around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Dude I realize you were kidding, but you still just reflected beautifully on the selective reading that goes on around here. I hear ya. Always gotta bust ballz in the face of dissapointment. Still looks like a cold, powder keg of a pattern to me....good winter in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Don't forget the NoGaps. Wow...models can be swingers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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