moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EC goes to town for CNE on Sunday. 0.50"+ for a lot of us. Lots of win. Wow-it gives you .5 on Sunday in addition to what comes down through Saturday? Share the wealth, man! Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So I have to ask, what's the likelihood of flight disruptions on Friday? As of now, it shouldn't be bad...perhaps at worst, a delay. Most of the snow is Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 congrats Birmingham & Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It brings the PV over sne and restrengthens the srfc trough over the Gulf of Maine. Dendrite and Mainejayhawk getting hit now. Jackpot area is extreme ne ct and nrn RI up through ORH and sw VT with just over 0.5" qpf through hr 96. This is what I was expecting ... well, hoping ... to hear. EC goes to town for CNE on Sunday. 0.50"+ for a lot of us. Lots of win. Two words: 1. Kick 2. Azz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow-it gives you .5 on Sunday in addition to what comes down through Saturday? Share the wealth, man! Congrats. No...sorry. lolI get 0.50" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Miller A is gonna Miller whiff, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Most of sne ne of HFD up through Dendrite and right to the ME border get just over 0.5" qpf. you can tell if that were all just a bit more consolidated aloft it would be substantial...notice how many times pressures lower s/sw/se of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 96h forecasts FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The NORLUN starts out over NYC, but the question all along is...what does it do after? Well the 12z euro shifts the trough ever so slighty to the ne and weakens, but the forcing from the upper level low, along with low level erly flow and srfc convergence from the inv trough, blossom areas of -sn over head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 96h forecasts FTW. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No...sorry. lol I get 0.50" total. That's cool. From Scott's description, I think I'm in the .5 area as well. So is the south of 84 crowd that misses in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The NORLUN starts out over NYC, but the question all along is...what does it do after? Well the 12z euro shifts the trough ever so slighty to the ne and weakens, but the forcing from the upper level low, along with low level erly flow and srfc convergence from the inv trough, blossom areas of -sn over head. I hate these events in which 7 diffierent mechanisms work in tandem to produce an advisory event over the span of 48 hrs. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ? people excited about sunday Euro qpf from a norlun /inv trough 96 hrs out are more than likely to be SOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Miller A is gonna Miller whiff, again. The 00z ensembles were a whiff and then jumped nw as that trough approached from the Midwest. You can see the 00z and now 12z run try to run ots, but then it begins to feel the tug of that trough approaching. Models have been all over the place with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 people excited about sunday Euro qpf from a norlun /inv trough 96 hrs out are more than likely to be SOL You know, you're really not making a good case for 2011 WOTY with that attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That's cool. From Scott's description, I think I'm in the .5 area as well. So is the south of 84 crowd that misses in this? Everyone SW of PWM is 0.25"+. 0.50" runs from about MVL-LCI-PSM on the north end and PSF-GON on the south end. It'll change a lot more, but it's nice to see the jackpot back into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That's cool. From Scott's description, I think I'm in the .5 area as well. So is the south of 84 crowd that misses in this? Yeah on this run, you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 00z ensembles were a whiff and then jumped nw as that trough approached from the Midwest. You can see the 00z and now 12z run try to run ots, but then it begins to feel the tug of that trough approaching. Models have been all over the place with that. I'm not worried...just relaying the run. Models are "all over the place" with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You know, you're really not making a good case for 2011 WOTY with that attitude. I think people are just expressing what the model is showing. I was making a lighter comment poking fun at the fact that it just shifted/shafted NE a few hundred miles and made a fairly dramatic shift - again. No consistency from any model really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hold the phone....gonna be close; trough going neg.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hold the phone....gonna be close; trough going neg.... Yeah....it's probably going to be a hit. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think people are just expressing what the model is showing. I was making a lighter comment poking fun at the fact that it just shifted/shafted NE a few hundred miles and made a fairly dramatic shift - again. No consistency from any model really. Well, I don't think any model should be expected to nail down an inverted trough at 48 hrs, nevermind 96.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hold the phone....gonna be close; trough going neg.... AWT. It will probably be too late, thanks to a little vortlobe over New England, but you can see how the low reacts, as the trough approaches from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 WOW...maybe a hook-and-latter this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS ENS are a dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 people excited about sunday Euro qpf from a norlun /inv trough 96 hrs out are more than likely to be SOL Lol, I think there has been a positive trend in the models today towards a better ULL shape/orientation and redevelopment coming closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 WOW...maybe a hook-and-latter this run The whole flow is just so flat though...it'd be nice to get some upstream ridging and amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EC goes to town for CNE on Sunday. 0.50"+ for a lot of us. Lots of win. I think that is just because there are more people who want it down here ...which of course means that once we've given into our schiteating down here, you're next hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Great run anticipation, Scott......if that vort lobe is not there, this is a very impressive hook-and-latter event. OTS verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 WOW...maybe a hook-and-latter this run Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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