40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When no one says anything, it usually means that the run was bad. Right, and when every other model is bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Is anyone else? Looks like its moved further NE over Mass thru NH, VT and upstate NY but is more of a trough...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Caveat this with "I am not a modeler," but all of the modeling guys I know like the ARW physics package a lot better than the NMM package. some mets say the inverted trough norlun will show up better on models like the ARW (esp) and the MM5. MM5 i believe is outside it's range...too bad cause it has a 985 low just off ACY fri am. looking for ARW Now....anyone got it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The euro starts the inv trough over NYC but then slowly lifts it ne and weakens. At the same time, Atlantic inflow combined with s/w starts to spread some light snow over sne. Actually a tiny bullseye in extreme ne CT at hr 72. So is this consistent with the 0z or is the Euro flopping around like an Asian Carp again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The PV also continues the trend of remaining more round and compact. Looks like it is trying to go under sne, with a strong s/w helping to dig it ese at hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like its moved further NE over Mass thru NH, VT and upstate NY but is more of a trough...... Not a suprise to see it move NE and weaken it...that is what usually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The PV also continues the trend of remaining more round and compact. Looks like it is trying to go under sne, with a strong s/w helping to dig it ese at hr 78. That sounds good. I really wish those Europeans would share their weather computer models with the rest of the world for FREE like their US counterparts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So is this consistent with the 0z or is the Euro flopping around like an Asian Carp again? It's more widespread with the light snow as compared to 00z. It actually brings the inv trough right over ern mass. I think it looks better at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So is this consistent with the 0z or is the Euro flopping around like an Asian Carp again? lol You hate that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The PV also continues the trend of remaining more round and compact. Looks like it is trying to go under sne, with a strong s/w helping to dig it ese at hr 78. We are more into the Sat-Sun time frame now........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That sounds good. I really wish those Europeans would share their weather computer models with the rest of the world for FREE like their US counterparts. What do you think they are over there? Socialists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 nice snowy weekend per the ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It brings the PV over sne and restrengthens the srfc trough over the Gulf of Maine. Dendrite and Mainejayhawk getting hit now. Jackpot area is extreme ne ct and nrn RI up through ORH and sw VT with just over 0.5" qpf through hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The euro starts the inv trough over NYC but then slowly lifts it ne and weakens. At the same time, Atlantic inflow combined with s/w starts to spread some light snow over sne. Actually a tiny bullseye in extreme ne CT at hr 72. That's the 2-4" on Kevin's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 lol You hate that model I think it's consistency and accuracy are vastly over-rated. If I lived at 500mb I'm sure it would be a great model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not a suprise to see it move NE and weaken it...that is what usually happens. AWT, They always end up this way somewhere, The whole thing is weak unless something pops late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It looks like the combo of inv trough and erly flow gives central hills a nice boost of qpf. This is kind of what I meant by more widespread oes..or perhaps ocean enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think it's consistency and accuracy are vastly over-rated. If I lived at 500mb I'm sure it would be a great model. Its 1000mb hgt scores are tops too. I'm not saying it's been great lately, but it's still a force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks like most of sne ne of hfd is >.4 or .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It brings the PV over sne and restrengthens the srfc trough over the Gulf of Maine. Dendrite and Mainejayhawk getting hit now. Jackpot area is extreme ne ct and nrn RI up through ORH and sw VT with just over 0.5" qpf through hr 96. And me! Good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It looks like the combo of inv trough and erly flow gives central hills a nice boost of qpf. This is kind of what I meant by more widespread oes..or perhaps ocean enhanced. wachusett FTW? wonder if this will bounce around another 100 miles or so as we still have 48 hrs with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Snow rotates back down through eastern areas by hr 102. At least it's a nice long duration here. The problem is that this could be mesoscale city....that is some areas will overachieve, and some will be burnt. Still, not a bad depiction and better than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 nice snowy weekend per the ec Plenty of time left for improvements too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It brings the PV over sne and restrengthens the srfc trough over the Gulf of Maine. Dendrite and Mainejayhawk getting hit now. Jackpot area is extreme ne ct and nrn RI up through ORH and sw VT with just over 0.5" qpf through hr 96. I love the sound of the trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It looks like the combo of inv trough and erly flow gives central hills a nice boost of qpf. This is kind of what I meant by more widespread oes..or perhaps ocean enhanced. Cool, the immediate coast and the hills do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EC goes to town for CNE on Sunday. 0.50"+ for a lot of us. Lots of win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cool, the immediate coast and the hills do well. You do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So I have to ask, what's the likelihood of flight disruptions on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Most of sne ne of HFD up through Dendrite and right to the ME border get just over 0.5" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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