Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 So the GFS is too light by a factor of 2? GFS is printing out steady light snows over all of CT...at this juncture that's all we need to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 As Scooter posted...the GFS won't be able to accurately predict qpf. HM says the same thing. Take a step back here Yeah, but I mean for the QPF near NYC, or wherever the NORLUN sets up. It's not producing qpf across most of sne, because there is no reason to, for now anyways. Eastern areas could still see some snow coming up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Haha. NW Conn how funny yet here I am on the lift and you're on your bum in front of the comp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The relatively flat wave exiting NE off the Del Marva around 48 hours going hyper-core as that meso-beta scale 500mb center S of NS should be questioned. That looks like big-time like convective feedback. This run is discontinous over priors due to the compaction of the SPV as Scott has noted ... Remove that feed-back and that opens the door for a farther west surface result. It would not be the first time that we had to get inside of 48 hours to see the western solution modeled. The KU event recently is a good example, though is no way an analog - but suffices to say that the models do not do well when there is a fast flow running over the top of an intense baroclinic axis. The Gulf Stream up underneath all of this is not helping... The models, even the higher resolution ones will key in on any spurious entity in the flow and go nuts with it because the fuel and the fire are not controled in the physics as discretely as necessary to really assess what is the most important components in the flow. The "too fast flow" argument is still in full effect as well, over all; the question is, does that limit only the MA out of the equation, or all...? We could still get a westward solution stem wound on down to 970mb for example, and still have it just too far off-shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, but I mean for the QPF near NYC, or wherever the NORLUN sets up. It's not producing qof across most of sne, because there is no reason too, for now anyways. Eastern areas could still see some snow coming up from the south. Right and some of us are thinking placement over NYC isn't correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You aren't too bright sometimes The GFS delivers .1" over a 6 hour period exactly one time and that's in extreme SW CT. You can add up the .03 to .06 per six hours x 4 periods and come up with an "advisory event" all you want. Stock up on water and bread now just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Right and some of us are thinking placement over NYC isn't correct Who? You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wmasssnowhound Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 next!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Who? You? Several mets and pro forecasters in this thread have stated this should shift NE as most Norluns do. You need to take a break for a few days i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GFS delivers .1" over a 6 hour period exactly one time and that's in extreme SW CT. You can add up the .03 to .06 per six hours x 4 periods and come up with an "advisory event" all you want. Stock up on water and bread now just to be safe. This event looks exactly as it has looked the last 36 hours here in CT... a light event with maybe a couple of inches. Spread out over a long duration it will be even lower impact. Someone who gets under the NORLUN trough could pick up 3-6 or even 4-8. For must of us this will be a huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Right and some of us are thinking placement over NYC isn't correct Well it could still shift, but I think for now...somewhere near NYC will at least start out with the inv trough. I don't think anybody should pin there hopes on it moving to the ne. What they should concentrate on, is how far west low pressure can develop, and if we can get more synoptic or ccb like snow coming up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Upton AFD at 10:19... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL EVENTFOR THE FORECAST AREA FRI...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO REACH WARNING LEVELS...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER. What can I say, at least here I'm waiting for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I truly think some of the people here have lost their mind. People are seriously thinking 0.2" or 0.3" of QPF spread out over 48 hours is going to produce a widespread 3-6" of snow... not to mention the obvious and painful trend that this thing is moving in the WRONG direction. John's very valid comments aside, it's like the twilight zone verbatim with the GFS. At face value it's terrible. At the same time at 500 it's not letting the middle system escape now..note a huge shift back in the same area John talks about. I'm actually a little more upbeat, just not understanding the logic that .03 over 6 hours is robust VERBATIM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What they should concentrate on, is how far west low pressure can develop, and if we can get more synoptic or ccb like snow coming up from the south. This is definitely my hope right now. Something like what the RSM or some of the SREF members are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 John's very valid comments aside, it's like the twilight zone verbatim with the GFS. At face value it's terrible. At the same time at 500 it's not letting the middle system escape now..note a huge shift back in the same area John talks about. I'm actually a little more upbeat, just not understanding the logic that .03 over 6 hours is robust VERBATIM. It's not bad at all for your locale. The 00z euro and now 12z gfs have trended to better precip over se areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's not bad at all for your locale. The 00z euro and now 12z gfs have trended to better precip over se areas. I thought the 12z was a "step" towards something a little better for our area...but that's about all you can ask. I don't need a foot, but a few inches would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I thought the 12z was a "step" towards something a little better for our area...but that's about all you can ask. I don't need a foot, but a few inches would be nice. A 2-4 3-6 type event would suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12z GFS Day 7 system is out to sea...but fairly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Haha. NW Conn how funny yet here I am on the lift and you're on your bum in front of the comp. goin out in a couple of hours, you know you're my main man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12z GFS Day 7 system is out to sea...but fairly close. Yeah models have flip-flopped with that. The euro ensembles were a pretty good hit with a low near the Cape. At least something is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah models have flip-flopped with that. The euro ensembles were a pretty good hit with a low near the Cape. At least something is modeled. right...and it's tough to get a good handle on that system when you can't get a real good handle on how the PV evolves with the day 3 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's not bad at all for your locale. The 00z euro and now 12z gfs have trended to better precip over se areas. As modeled I think it blows, but I'm not that worried about it because I like what I see aloft. At 500 we have energy right now over western Neb. that dives down and around ahead of the energy coming into NC/VA by 36-42. Together they help to develop the 2nd low and then the entire complex is spun up into the diving big dog. Right now it's too far east, but the shift west was large this run and we may be heading closer to a solution from a few days ago with a more powerful low to the west but still ENE of Ptown. I don't see this is feedback just normal bias. We'll see whether this shift was just a model aberration or something more meaningful. the NAM is more extreme and probably closer to accurate in this situation, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12z GFS Day 7 system is out to sea...but fairly close. Given the setup how do you think this one will trend? Looked like a Miller B on the GFS yesterday. I'm guessing that our PV will determine how much confluence there is over NE to keep it squashed. If we want a big system up the coast next week I suppose we want the PV to get the hell out the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looking at the last three GFS runs today, I think there is a clear trend. There is strong vorticity located near Manitoba, Canada around 00z Friday on the models. The trend in the GFS is to speed this system up more. I think this is cleary showing the bias of the models in a La Nina ran Pacific Jet stream where the energy modeled is too slow compared to what we are actually noticing. So that was the trend with the last two big storms, one almost out to sea, but shifted westward, and the other that was favoring eastern areas just 48 hours out from the event, only to give New York City a 20" snowstorm. The correction west is quite noticeable, even on the GFS surface maps. However the GFS has also trended from splitting up the SPV as it moves to our south or right over the region, to actually staying intact as it moves south of the region. Also if the trend continues throughout the 12z suite and continues throughout this afternoon and tonight, I think it is clear that this system is coming west. Take a minute and picture that the trend of the faster pacific jet shortwave that rotates around the SPV as it tracks over the Great Lakes, coming in faster and faster in each run, guess what happens? It phases to the south of Nantucket, MA and pulls the SPV to the southeast more than currently modeled. GFS is leaning this way even though the low ends up east of the region with little to any fanfare with exceptions to SW CT/NYC with the inverted trough. So what I think happens is that with a faster northern stream disturbance the models will start to key in on this system's speed over the next 36 hours and end up producing a big storm at least from RI eastward and points northward. The trend could continue even more and allow most if not all of SNE to get snow from this storm. This is just my opinion, however something to perhaps look forward to, over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 right...and it's tough to get a good handle on that system when you can't get a real good handle on how the PV evolves with the day 3 system. LOL, exactly. Just put it on the back burner for like 5 days. If anything, this year has been a nice lesson to some hobbyists. It shows you why you shouldn't fall in love with d5+ solutions on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Decent little squall moving thru Windsor..Enough to whiten the ground a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Decent little squall moving thru Windsor..Enough to whiten the ground a bit 0.7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 0.7"? Watched the newscast last nite. No mention of snow by you at all for today. Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looking at the last three GFS runs today, I think there is a clear trend. There is strong vorticity located near Manitoba, Canada around 00z Friday on the models. The trend in the GFS is to speed this system up more. I think this is cleary showing the bias of the models in a La Nina ran Pacific Jet stream where the energy modeled is too slow compared to what we are actually noticing. So that was the trend with the last two big storms, one almost out to sea, but shifted westward, and the other that was favoring eastern areas just 48 hours out from the event, only to give New York City a 20" snowstorm. The correction west is quite noticeable, even on the GFS surface maps. However the GFS has also trended from splitting up the SPV as it moves to our south or right over the region, to actually staying intact as it moves south of the region. Also if the trend continues throughout the 12z suite and continues throughout this afternoon and tonight, I think it is clear that this system is coming west. Take a minute and picture that the trend of the faster pacific jet shortwave that rotates around the SPV as it tracks over the Great Lakes, coming in faster and faster in each run, guess what happens? It phases to the south of Nantucket, MA and pulls the SPV to the southeast more than currently modeled. GFS is leaning this way even though the low ends up east of the region with little to any fanfare with exceptions to SW CT/NYC with the inverted trough. So what I think happens is that with a faster northern stream disturbance the models will start to key in on this system's speed over the next 36 hours and end up producing a big storm at least from RI eastward and points northward. The trend could continue even more and allow most if not all of SNE to get snow from this storm. This is just my opinion, however something to perhaps look forward to, over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Be ironic if it trended far enough west to kill off the inverted trough but not west enough to do much of anything. Based on this, the GFS and NAM i'd put up watches for all of New England to play it safe. For those keeping score the GGEM cut the QPF max from 15 to 6 in one run for this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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