CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It is trending to a more round and compact PV over the OH valley on this run, as compared to other runs. An advisory event for the Cape and messenger, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well only a few hundred more miles west and we're into the money. It really bombs 54+ hours, crawls along but everything is less than ideal for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow... GFS is a big fail. Several inches for NYC... virtually nothing for most of SNE northeast of HVN 1-3" for most of ct except NE CT maybe 2-4" for HVN southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS drops 2-4 statewide in Ct except 3-6 over SW CT not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS drops 2-4 statewide in Ct except 3-6 over SW CT not bad NE Ct maybe gets a coating. Even you only squeak out an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Still snowing in far NNE as the ULL moves through SNE and hangs the sfc trough back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The gfs won't properly diagnose NORLUNs so don't take NYC qpf on the GFS. GFS can't grasp the mesoscale stuff like the NAM can. It doesn't mean the NAM is right, but it's likely the gfs will always take the under with NORLUN qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS drops 2-4 statewide in Ct except 3-6 over SW CT not bad Sure it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Albany and Glens Falls get more than most of New England. Someone check the initialization of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It gon snow.Feeling it in my bones. does that start to happen when you get old? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow... GFS is a big fail. Several inches for NYC... virtually nothing for most of SNE northeast of HVN I fail to see the failure - it ain't great but... GFS drops 2-4 statewide in Ct except 3-6 over SW CT not bad ...yeahhh, when do I get my advisory? Now would be good. I'm still feeling good. Even Ryan can't take this away from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS drops 2-4 statewide in Ct except 3-6 over SW CT not bad Yeah, multiply those numbers by like 0.75 and that's accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Still snowing in far NNE as the ULL moves through SNE and hangs the sfc trough back. Yeah, that second strong s/w with the PV actually helps back precip into Maine. LOL, if this keeps up, the next few runs might bring it to Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 look at the rsm...dont know if its benn posted but LOL http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, that second strong s/w with the PV actually helps back precip into Maine. LOL, if this keeps up, the next few runs might bring it to Ray. At this rate Ray, Dom, and I may not have to clean off the cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If this was the final outcome i would take it, But i know it won't be......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah, multiply those numbers by like 0.75 and that's accurate. .25" of qpf over 36 hours, I'm stoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I am cool with the storm backing into Maine and stalling pretty much. Lock this in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Sure it does. You aren't too bright sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I fail to see the failure - it ain't great but... ...yeahhh, when do I get my advisory? Now would be good. I'm still feeling good. Even Ryan can't take this away from me. The GFS doesn't drop advisory snows in most of CT, not even close really. The .1" line is the notorious clown line and i'm pretty sure it's a recognized bias still today. If the GFS played out as modeled I could maybe see some light snow showers here. I'd expect little or no accumulation even on most of the Cape. The saving grace may be some ocean enhancement. This is the GFS as of now, which did make a significant shift NW. It's a lot closer to a decent hit for ENE/SE NE. But still too far east with storm #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well for messenger and a few living near the coast, with light erly flow to almost 850...there will probably be a few bands of oes stuff, aside from any synoptic stuff..so maybe something to watch. It's pretty cold upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 .25" of qpf over 36 hours, I'm stoked! I truly think some of the people here have lost their mind. People are seriously thinking 0.2" or 0.3" of QPF spread out over 48 hours is going to produce a widespread 3-6" of snow... not to mention the obvious and painful trend that this thing is moving in the WRONG direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 At this rate Ray, Dom, and I may not have to clean off the cars. I'll just keep mine in the garage as a form of protest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I truly think some of the people here have lost their mind. People are seriously thinking 0.2" or 0.3" of QPF spread out over 48 hours is going to produce a widespread 3-6" of snow... not to mention the obvious and painful trend that this thing is moving in the WRONG direction. As Scooter posted...the GFS won't be able to accurately predict qpf. HM says the same thing. Take a step back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GFS doesn't drop advisory snows in most of CT, not even close really. The .1" line is the notorious clown line and i'm pretty sure it's a recognized bias still today. If the GFS played out as modeled I could maybe see some light snow showers here. I'd expect little or no accumulation even on most of the Cape. The saving grace may be some ocean enhancement. This is the GFS as of now, which did make a significant shift NW. It's a lot closer to a decent hit for ENE/SE NE. But still too far east with storm #2. I would get an advisory out of that, as has happened how many times on how many runs. I have high confidence in it, and Upton shares that sentiment. I'm not concerned about the rest of the state or NE. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 As Scooter posted...the GFS won't be able to accurately predict qpf. HM says the same thing. Take a step back here So the GFS is too light by a factor of 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah they're pretty fascinating from a Met stantpoint, but what a pain to figure out. That would probably be nice for NYC and just east if the last 24 hrs of model solutions panned out, but this thing probably isn't done shifting around. I do kind of feel, that some sort of inv trough sets up for a time down there, but the question is what happens afterwards. Does it pivot or dissolve down that way, or does it get shoved off to the south or southeast as low pressure develops and brings snow further north. Some of the models bring downeast and eastern ME into the game. The euro ensembles have decent probs for precip over downeast ME...fwiw. Usually these things set up and do their dirty work in one place then eventually dissolve as the forcing weakens. Kinda like strong mesoscale banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I truly think some of the people here have lost their mind. People are seriously thinking 0.2" or 0.3" of QPF spread out over 48 hours is going to produce a widespread 3-6" of snow... not to mention the obvious and painful trend that this thing is moving in the WRONG direction. I agree, just had a heavy coating here from those squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I truly think some of the people here have lost their mind. People are seriously thinking 0.2" or 0.3" of QPF spread out over 48 hours is going to produce a widespread 3-6" of snow... not to mention the obvious and painful trend that this thing is moving in the WRONG direction. There may be some nice fluff though. If you measure and clear every 6hrs with light totals like that you'll get some nice inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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