Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd definitely want the inverted trough in this position at 48-60 hours out from the event. Let it shift a little northeast and we get it good. I was watching the pivot of the 5H low on the NAM, but the inverted trof just remained focused in the same spot...seemed suspect to me. I think it still comes NE to include most of CT and RI and ORH in NW/SE heading..in a wider band than what is being modelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Has it really shifted south? I think models were hinting at NYC since 12z yesterday. Well is was modeled in CT at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Has it really shifted south? I think models were hinting at NYC since 12z yesterday. Yeah but it's moved to NYC south now as opposed to NYC to me and north a bit. I was in that blue all day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well the H5 depiction argues for the trough developing down there. I think that will happen. Question is, what happens afterwards. Does it rot overhead, or do we see low pressure developing and begin to pull the band east or se. I feel pretty confident they will see an inv trough somewhere near NYC. I guess that's possible..just very strange to have it down there while it's sunny over all of SNE...I'd still say wagons northeast with the trough axis..maybe even as far NE as BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well is was modeled in CT at some point. It started in NYC and went into sw CT, but I think NYC has been signaled for a while. In any case, we are probably not done seeing some shifts, but for now..I feel they will at least deal with it for part of the time...at least some location nearby. Could be 30-50 miles either side..who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I beleive that December 1946, NYC's second biggest snow of all time, was essentially a Norlun that nailed NYC to SW CT. dec 47. it was an inverted trough on steroids... i wouldn't call it a classic norlun. the area of heavy snow was pretty wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I guess that's possible..just very strange to have it down there while it's sunny over all of SNE...I'd still say wagons northeast with the trough axis..maybe even as far NE as BOS Why? We've seen PHL get crushed in setups like these. It's more common to see them over Maine but given the setup something south of us certainly makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd definitely want the inverted trough in this position at 48-60 hours out from the event. Let it shift a little northeast and we get it good. I was watching the pivot of the 5H low on the NAM, but the inverted trof just remained focused in the same spot...seemed suspect to me. At this time range you certainly do not want to be to the south or southwest of the inv. trough you either want it over you or to be NE of it. I like where most of us in SNE stand at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I guess that's possible..just very strange to have it down there while it's sunny over all of SNE...I'd still say wagons northeast with the trough axis..maybe even as far NE as BOS We could see the trough align more east to west near sne, but I think it at least starts out down there. But you know how these go...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 you can sort of see why the gfs has the heaviest snows SW of here...the sfc winds to 850 would appear align nicely down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 At this time range you certainly do not want to be to the south or southwest of the inv. trough you either want it over you or to be NE of it. I like where most of us in SNE stand at this point we already know you are going to measure 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 we already know you are going to measure 10" We already know you're losing your hair badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 you can sort of see why the gfs has the heaviest snows SW of here...the sfc winds to 850 would appear align nicely down there Yeah that's a good signal there as well. It's still going to depend on how the upper levels are, but if that verifies...big signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah that's a good signal there as well. It's still going to depend on how the upper levels are, but if that verifies...big signal. I'm not really sure what changes we can hope for to get a heavy snow signal up here. The best shot, proabably only shot (and a longshot at that) is to get into the ccb in the latter stages and wrap around something into ENE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS coming in about the same. I edited this, had the maps flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm not really sure what changes we can hope for to get a heavy snow signal up here. The best shot, proabably only shot (and a longshot at that) is to get into the ccb in the latter stages and wrap around something into ENE? That's the only shot I see. The 2nd system that for a few days was modeled to be weak and well SE gets hung up along the coast as the next batch of energy moves down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm not really sure what changes we can hope for to get a heavy snow signal up here. The best shot, proabably only shot (and a longshot at that) is to get into the ccb in the latter stages and wrap around something into ENE? Yeah something like the euro had..with maybe some oes contribution. It would at least give some snow. Edit, I mean for eastern sne. There is a chance of some light snows with the upper level low and some erly flow aloft over NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS slowed the 2nd low by about 200-300 miles...not sure it's enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12z gfs slows everything, at least comparing the 30hr 12z vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The slowly swd placement of the NORLUN, may be a good thing, like some proposed. If it digs a little more, it would probably allow for better Atlantic inflow over sne. In any case, the gfs has a dam strong vortmax over ND at hr 42...stronger than any previous model over the last 12 hrs. Wonder what that will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12z gfs slows everything, at least comparing the 30hr 12z vs 0z It's slower and stronger with the s/w exiting the Carolinas at about 30 hours. Similar placement with the other two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's slower and stronger with the s/w exiting the Carolinas at about 30 hours. Similar placement with the other two. by 42 I see what you mean. redevelopment taking place off the coast by 42ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Go baby go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's better with the surface low as compared to 06z. Further nw, and baggy isobars south of sne..perhaps a signal for low pressure close to developing. Inv trough still into NYC. It seems to be a little more concentrated with the vortmax off the NC coast, as compared to other runs. Lets face it, it could only get better from 06z..lol. Still not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wrong benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like it's snowing decent along the s-coast and Cape at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It gon snow.Feeling it in my bones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow... GFS is a big fail. Several inches for NYC... virtually nothing for most of SNE northeast of HVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We lose it all quickly by 72hr. Close, but not enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's better with the surface low as compared to 06z. Further nw, and baggy isobars south of sne..perhaps a signal for low pressure close to developing. Inv trough still into NYC. It seems to be a little more concentrated with the vortmax off the NC coast, as compared to other runs. Lets face it, it could only get better from 06z..lol. Still not quite there. ULL looking better as well. Not as strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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