Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's realy trying. I guess the big deal here is the angle is much better on the diving energy which keeps us from having a flat bottomed trough. So close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Man, this is like jekyl and hyde (check for spelling) on the models here. I don't know if anyone could be confident with their forecasts for this late week into the week period. 00z CMC had a better solution then it had been showing, still mostly precip from the inverted trough, but the main storm was closer to really producing at least for most of eastern MA and RI. A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes this run screws CT... lock it in! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The key on this run, is the strength of the vortlobe coming down from the Lakes. It's pretty strong on this run, and keeps intact as it rotates into the waters, south of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So close. IF we see the increasing sharpness in angle/better trough structure thoughout the suite that's great news and it's game on. This is the 2nd system that instead of getting booted kind of hangs around and if you look at 700mb the moisture is eventually wrapped back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The key on this run, is the strength of the vortlobe coming down from the Lakes. It's pretty strong on this run, and keeps intact as it rotates into the waters, south of sne. yeah it stays nice and consolidated. that's kind of like the ec did a couple runs back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This norlun keeps trending further south...do not like! Granted...I think these things sometimes make pretty big jumps within 60 hours...but can't help and be nervous. Whoever gets under that thing gets a nice 5-10" event...everyone else will be lucky to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes this run screws CT... lock it in! lol BWI has more than Mt. Tolland at 66z. lol Meanwhile, heavy overcast and flurries here, 27.9/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This still reminds me of the system that gave me 13" of snow on 2/25/90 on eastern LI. Setup looks pretty similar. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1990/us0225.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This still reminds me of the system that gave me 13" of snow on 2/25/90 on eastern LI. Setup looks pretty similar. http://www.meteo.psu...1990/us0225.php You would think someone in LI could do well with Atlantic moisture source right there. Nice e-ne moist winds converging with colder/drier west winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think the models will trend for a better surface low position and strengthening period. I just think the NAM and most models are just too far to the east. I guess we will know in another 3 1/2 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You would think someone in LI could do well with Atlantic moisture source right there. Nice e-ne moist winds converging with colder/drier west winds. Just depends where the narrow convergence zone sets up. I remember getting 13" of snow while places like Brookhaven lab not too far to my west only got like 3 or 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just depends where the narrow convergence zone sets up. I remember getting 13" of snow while places like Brookhaven lab not too far to my west only got like 3 or 4". At 78 Hrs on the 12Z NAM looks like it wants to develop some kind of convergence over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Congrasts northern NJ, kinda congrats CC. I'm enjoying the heavy, heavy flurries happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I get some inverted troughiness action as H5 finally dives over SNE anyway. Unless we can finally get that low cranking it's going to be a headache to figure out all of these mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 At 78 Hrs on the 12Z NAM looks like it wants to develop some kind of convergence over our area. I just saw that...it will be interesting to see how this pans out. It's all mesoscale stuff for the most part...so there's gonna be lots of model problems for a few runs I assume. They may have the right idea...but perhaps not in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes this run screws CT... lock it in! lol Garbage in, garbage out. It's amazing how it's just close enough and far enough in time we could still get a big one, however unlikely. I'm still locked in to advisory level. Oh yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just depends where the narrow convergence zone sets up. I remember getting 13" of snow while places like Brookhaven lab not too far to my west only got like 3 or 4". Yeah they're pretty fascinating from a Met stantpoint, but what a pain to figure out. That would probably be nice for NYC and just east if the last 24 hrs of model solutions panned out, but this thing probably isn't done shifting around. I do kind of feel, that some sort of inv trough sets up for a time down there, but the question is what happens afterwards. Does it pivot or dissolve down that way, or does it get shoved off to the south or southeast as low pressure develops and brings snow further north. Some of the models bring downeast and eastern ME into the game. The euro ensembles have decent probs for precip over downeast ME...fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 its pretty hillarious in a sick way, that the norlun is slowly shifting to NJ. i mean how can you not laugh, like a deranged maniac that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The NAM giving an inch of qpf to the NYC area, is pretty scary. Somebody would have a serious dumping..but that someone may be limited to within 10 miles..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The key on this run, is the strength of the vortlobe coming down from the Lakes. It's pretty strong on this run, and keeps intact as it rotates into the waters, south of sne. IMO the key to this run are the earlier systems acting to sharpen the trough so that when the trailing systems come down it isn't a flat POS. Compare the 48h 12z to 60h 0z at 500 then run back 24 hours. The ND s/w is stronger in the end and digs further south which kind of sets up the trailing systems. At 42h the s/w over the Carolinas...I no longer believe it's a reach to think it will be stronger/deeper and in turn may lead to a much better solution again if the evolution here is correct. (get that system mid-game to dig a little more in advance of the big dog system and we ended up with a much more amplified system out under us vs the pancake now that fails to get the job done) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 No kidding lol I think we'll see this tick northward a little. Jackpot east slopes of the Berkshires I think it still comes NE to include most of CT and RI and ORH in NW/SE heading..in a wider band than what is being modelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Out of the box thought. Does the inverted trough shifting S, maybe imply that we are seeing more digging of the ULL, hence the more robust surface development? Weenie thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think it still comes NE to include most of CT and RI and ORH in NW/SE heading..in a wider band than what is being modelled Let's hope so! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Out of the box thought. Does the inverted trough shifting S, maybe imply that we are seeing more digging of the ULL, hence the more robust surface development? Weenie thoughts. Yes, I believe it does... The 12z NAM was more amplified...which caused the best dPVA to be located further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Out of the box thought. Does the inverted trough shifting S, maybe imply that we are seeing more digging of the ULL, hence the more robust surface development? Weenie thoughts. It's just highly unlikely NYC ends up the jackpot from a Norlun..I'm not sure if that's ever happened..they usually shift NE the final 24 hrs..which is why Maine always gets them in the end under normal circumstances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes, I believe it does... The 12z NAM was more amplified...which caused the best dPVA to be located further south. It's just highly unlikely NYC ends up the jackpot from a Norlun..I'm not sure if that's ever happened..they usually shift NE the final 24 hrs..which is why Maine always gets them in the end under normal circumstances Well, I'd prefer we see a shift S then with the trough feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's just highly unlikely NYC ends up the jackpot from a Norlun..I'm not sure if that's ever happened..they usually shift NE the final 24 hrs..which is why Maine always gets them in the end under normal circumstances Well the H5 depiction argues for the trough developing down there. I think that will happen. Question is, what happens afterwards. Does it rot overhead, or do we see low pressure developing and begin to pull the band east or se. I feel pretty confident they will see an inv trough somewhere near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's just highly unlikely NYC ends up the jackpot from a Norlun..I'm not sure if that's ever happened..they usually shift NE the final 24 hrs..which is why Maine always gets them in the end under normal circumstances I beleive that December 1946, NYC's second biggest snow of all time, was essentially a Norlun that nailed NYC to SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, I'd prefer we see a shift S then with the trough feature. Has it really shifted south? I think models were hinting at NYC since 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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