Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We did not do as well here in the Blizz of 78........ This is evolving nothing like 78 at the surface. I'm still struck by the fact so many reputable outlets made comparisons to it so early but oh well. Things could change for the better today, or not. Oes would be fun but it's too early to think about it. That said we are trying to jam a square peg in a round hole for a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is evolving nothing like 78 at the surface. I'm still struck by the fact so many reputable outlets made comparisons to it so early but oh well. Things could change for the better today, or not. Oes would be fun but it's too early to think about it. That said we are trying to jam a square peg in a round hole for a biggie. The 78 reference was in an hpc disco the other day...making comparisons to the 5h pattern. Unfortunately...it got misinterpreted by many apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The euro ensembles really like the d7 threat. So does the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is evolving nothing like 78 at the surface. I'm still struck by the fact so many reputable outlets made comparisons to it so early but oh well. Things could change for the better today, or not. Oes would be fun but it's too early to think about it. That said we are trying to jam a square peg in a round hole for a biggie. My statement on the 78 storm was just in general as it was not great here. Its really looking less likely for a biggie unless the trough feature becomes legit for someone, I am just looking for a few inches out of this, a 2-4" deal or 3-6" would work so we can get back out on the trails up here, I don't think it could get worse here as i sit in the precip hole ATTM, So it can only get better from here or stay the same, Should be interesting today and tonight model watching........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you guys remember correctly the blizzard of 1978 was really just a norlun trough with some oes. This is very similar. Moneypit said he hoped we got clarity last night but didn't, I think we may have. Messenger--I think we got clarity with there being a norlun. I think the big question is really to the placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The euro ensembles really like the d7 threat. So does the gfs. I wistfully recall the current storm at day 7 when it showed me getting over 2" QPF. Yes, those were good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 78 reference was in an hpc disco the other day...making comparisons to the 5h pattern. Unfortunately...it got misinterpreted by many apparently. A lot of people took it that this storm was going to be like 78 was when in fact it was what the upper air pattern looked like at the time of the discussion which had nothing to do with the final outcome, It also for a time on the models looked a little like Feb 1969 stalling the low just NE of the cape and retrograding it back towards the Maine coast....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 78 reference was in an hpc disco the other day...making comparisons to the 5h pattern. Unfortunately...it got misinterpreted by many apparently. Any mention of one of the largest storms in 100 years will raise eyebrows which is why it doesn't make much sense to do it so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Any mention of one of the largest storms in 100 years will raise eyebrows which is why it doesn't make much sense to do it so far out. I'm sure we've had setups since then that resembles '78, but of course..they failed to produce the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What I find most fascinating is that the models don't agree on whether the pv comes underneath us. I saw Will's post that on the GFS eventally the whle PV comes under us. Other models don't show this right? I can understand models being confused and disagreeing on little shortwaves but disagreeing on the entire pv at 72 hours out? While somewhat depressing (despite HPC and GYX suggesting a moderate event) this whole thing is fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is evolving nothing like 78 at the surface. I'm still struck by the fact so many reputable outlets made comparisons to it so early but oh well. Things could change for the better today, or not. Oes would be fun but it's too early to think about it. That said we are trying to jam a square peg in a round hole for a biggie. This is kinda ridiculous dude...it was HPC remarking about the 500mb evolution a few days ago. And guess what...that 12z NAM from yesterday would have produced something similar to 78... But alas...I think we can all agree that the very extreme solutions are off the table, and it appears we are at the stage of a general light snow with embedded mesoscale areas of moderate to heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Any mention of one of the largest storms in 100 years will raise eyebrows which is why it doesn't make much sense to do it so far out. The HPC isn't worried about weenie emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What I find most fascinating is that the models don't agree on whether the pv comes underneath us. I saw Will's post that on the GFS eventally the whle PV comes under us. Other models don't show this right? I can understand models being confused and disagreeing on little shortwaves but disagreeing on the entire pv at 72 hours out? While somewhat depressing (despite HPC and GYX suggesting a moderate event) this whole thing is fascinating. Yes, this goes back to the orientation of the leading s/w. Some models really dig this s/w and in turn, it gets pulled under sne, as surface low pressure forms and helps amplify the whole trough. What you want to see is basically what models showed a couple of days ago. You want the leading s/w to dig southeast and begin to curl northeast as the surface low develops. When you see this leading s/w get kicked se and become more diffuse...it's going to lead to a low developing way offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The HPC isn't worried about weenie emotions. i have to admit that i didn't like seeing it said only because this is always the result. people not understanding what the reference means. oh well. no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Trough signature on the 03z SREF's is pretty strong. Let's see what the 09z SREF's reveal, if anything new. Should be out in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The HPC isn't worried about weenie emotions. When model error has probably been 500 miles at that range they weren't too interested in relevant historical references either. They have been as inconsistent as the models. One day aggressive the next day a new forecaster on the same data changes tunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 LOL at the NAM. 12 hours in it's changing how it handles the energy coming in west of the main PV. Angle looks totally different. Handling the energy around TN with the lead impulse differently too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Trough signature on the 03z SREF's is pretty strong. Let's see what the 09z SREF's reveal, if anything new. Should be out in a few minutes. Hopefully they won't continue the southward march into PHL. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 09z SREF's not as robust for western areas of Mass. .25" line now cuts from the coast of NH down to Westerly, RI now where the 03z had the .25" line back west of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hopefully they won't continue the southward march into PHL. lol Nope, it's still there over the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 09z SREF's not as robust for western areas of Mass. .5" line now cuts from the coast of NH down to Westerly, RI now where the 0 hasd the .5" line back west of ORH I think that's the 0.25" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Does anyone still think it's not gonna snow Thursday nite-Saturday night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 09z SREF's not as robust for western areas of Mass. .5" line now cuts from the coast of NH down to Westerly, RI now where the 0 hasd the .5" line back west of ORH there might be some serious weenie solutions in that run despite the qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Does anyone still think it's not gonna snow Thursday nite-Saturday night lol Probably two little "max" qpf areas. One with the NORLUN, and the other perhaps from OES contribution. Hopefully, the NORLUN moves ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think that's the 0.25" line. My bad, I will edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 new NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes, this goes back to the orientation of the leading s/w. Some models really dig this s/w and in turn, it gets pulled under sne, as surface low pressure forms and helps amplify the whole trough. What you want to see is basically what models showed a couple of days ago. You want the leading s/w to dig southeast and begin to curl northeast as the surface low develops. When you see this leading s/w get kicked se and become more diffuse...it's going to lead to a low developing way offshore. So we have 3 scenarios then, broadly 1. dream scenario, the sw digs hard, doesn't get pulled offshore, deepens, curls and pulls the whole pv down and under. Blizzard 2. the pv stays north, doesn't come under, low pressure develops offshore and deepens setting up a trough between the strong pv sitting back in nyc or the eastern great lakes which creates a norlun type trough somewhere and some scattered/light snow elsewhere 3. the pv does come under eventually but in a spread out diffuse manner with energy getting pulled out to sea in the intensifying offshore low. The result is some sort of inverted trough and some general light snow cause by have the pv energy underneath us. Is this right and what do ya'll think of the odds of either scenario. Another thought here is that if we get a low level ne e or se flow with all this energy to our west, this could create some long duration light snow in areas of elevation. Is that a possible scenario? Thanks for your thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Does anyone still think it's not gonna snow Thursday nite-Saturday night lol yeah. not straight through but that's the period of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 there might be some serious weenie solutions in that run despite the qpf Yeah, I'm sure there is. It's still looking ok for us for some light accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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