Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think as we almost always do..that the Norlun is modelled too far sw..and in the last 24 hrs we'll see it shift NE to mostly take NYC area out of the jackpot and include more of SNE as the bigger snow areas...I don't know that there's ever beena setup where a norlun has focused SW like the GFS has. Nam already has bumped it back NE from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So much for the idea of waking to a vivid understanding of what's going to play out. But whatever it is, the first flakes will be flying in 48 hours. I think Ray said he'll give two more model runs. By my calculations, that's 36 hours out. That's a pretty small window of forecast certainty. Fun times! I'm not sure of the climatology of norluns, but like Kevin said, a small shift may bring a whole bunch of posters into the mix. Hell, 30 miles will bring a whole bunch of CT and GC to the table. 25.7/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WEAKENING OVER NY STATE...IT APPEARS THAT A LONG INVERTED TROUGH COULD SET UP BETWEEN THIS WEAKENING LOW AND THE OTHER WELL OFFSHORE. THIS COULD BRING A BAND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH CURRENT POSITIONING ACROSS CT/S RI INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND E NY STATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THIS BAND OF SNOW NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 So much for the idea of waking to a vivid understanding of what's going to play out. But whatever it is, the first flakes will be flying in 48 hours. I think Ray said he'll give two more model runs. By my calculations, that's 36 hours out. That's a pretty small window of forecast certainty. Fun times! I'm not sure of the climatology of norluns, but like Kevin said, a small shift may bring a whole bunch of posters into the mix. Hell, 30 miles will bring a whole bunch of CT and GC to the table. 25.7/18 Right now those areas you mentioned are in the bullseye..though suspect more share in the fun as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WEAKENING OVER NY STATE...IT APPEARS THAT A LONG INVERTED TROUGH COULD SET UP BETWEEN THIS WEAKENING LOW AND THE OTHER WELL OFFSHORE. THIS COULD BRING A BAND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH CURRENT POSITIONING ACROSS CT/S RI INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND E NY STATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THIS BAND OF SNOW NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE. FOR NOW...SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS /AT LEAST/...BUT TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. Expect we should do well here in the high terrain when all is said and done with this system(s). Love the uncertainty. Have had a little -sn overnight. Heading to Hunter in a few minutes looks like they've been picking up some snow overnight. Dust on crust. I'd expect there will be some surprises with the 12z suite and again at 00z tonight. For those that are inclined to jump of bridges this is a good time as the ice makes body recovery a little easier. Do it soon though as the heavy snow latter this week will make it harder to spot the corpse. Have a wonderful day. Kev, fight the good fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 03 SREF mean is a CT screwgie as well as most of GC. Love teh consistency. EDIT: There's a really bizarre spread of solutions there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 03 SREF mean is a CT screwgie as well as most of GC. Love teh consistency. EDIT: There's a really bizarre spread of solutions there though. Not worth much at this range. You little ray of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 For once, can't we just get a normal widespread 9-12" event that is modelled well 72 hours out? This has been ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 For once, can't we just get a normal widespread 9-12" event that is modelled well 72 hours out? This has been ridiculous. What's the fun in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not worth much at this range. You little ray of sunshine. Pete--just saying what it is. There's not a point of optimism nor pessimism in my post. I was highlighting the vastly different qpf between the mean the 00z gfs/nam runs (I can't see qpf of the others) and how comical the inconsistencies are. I'm pretty sure a whole bunch of us will have a blanket of snow. Will it require shoveling? Perhaps not for all, at lesat using my criteria (but then again I don't wash my car either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Pete--just saying what it is. There's not a point of optimism nor pessimism in my post. I was highlighting the vastly different qpf between the mean the 00z gfs/nam runs (I can't see qpf of the others) and how comical the inconsistencies are. I'm pretty sure a whole bunch of us will have a blanket of snow. Will it require shoveling? Perhaps not for all, at lesat using my criteria (but then again I don't wash my car either). ... or rake leaves, or mow the lawn, or commit chipmunkocide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ... or rake leaves, or mow the lawn, or commit chipmunkocide. Actually, I love mowing the lawn. A few hours of mindlessly driving around is very therapeutic. As is raking leaves, but I would never do that until they're all down (and this year paid someone to do it). But we digress--let's fast foward to the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think the person most eagerlly awaiting snow is Dave who is really jonesing for a snow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 interesting that the hpc snow map has all of NE except extreme se mass in the mod prob for 4 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Also a 1975 first year of busing graduation yearbook!!! Talked to my maintenance guy in my office the other day about the busing issue. He grew up in Southie int he 70s. Funny story he told: The police on horses were being used for crowd control of his neighborhood. So the local kids started throwing darts at the horses butts. The horses would go ballistic and buck the police officer off the horse. The local stores had to stop selling darts. It was viscious back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 interesting that the hpc snow map has all of NE except extreme se mass in the mod prob for 4 inches or more. 40% chance 3 days out is pretty decent. Interesting how small their 8" zone is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think mets including BOX are worried this will blow up in someone's face. Our job is easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think mets including BOX are worried this will blow up in someone's face. Our job is easy. Yuppers!!!! Easy for us here in the peanut gallery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 40% chance 3 days out is pretty decent. Interesting how small their 8" zone is. I was surprised to see that and that was at 349 so all the guidance was out including the 6z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 a lotta snow likelys in here. MEZ018-NHZ006-008>010-013-060115- INTERIOR YORK-SOUTHERN CARROLL-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD- INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANFORD...BERWICK...WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE... CONCORD...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...DOVER... SALEM...DERRY...EXETER 602 AM EST WED JAN 5 2011 .TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 13. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS 11 TO 17. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .FRIDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS AROUND 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 a lotta snow likelys in here. MEZ018-NHZ006-008>010-013-060115- INTERIOR YORK-SOUTHERN CARROLL-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD- INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANFORD...BERWICK...WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE... CONCORD...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...DOVER... SALEM...DERRY...EXETER 602 AM EST WED JAN 5 2011 .TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 13. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS 11 TO 17. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .FRIDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS AROUND 15. Congrats, you even get mention of accumulation in yours. Not bad two days out. OKX is going categorical snow Friday/Night--at least in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Congrats, you even get mention of accumulation in yours. Not bad two days out. OKX is going categorical snow Friday/Night--at least in the NYC area. no accum mentioned in yours eh? based on the models aren't they being a bit optimistic? Although the GFS does show .21 qpf here. Who the hell know what will happen but it would no surprise me to see that nyc band move ne. Not hard to see you getting a good snow...you deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 no accum mentioned in yours eh? based on the models aren't they being a bit optimistic? Although the GFS does show .21 qpf here. Who the hell know what will happen but it would no surprise me to see that nyc band move ne. Not hard to see you getting a good snow...you deserve it. I'll be satisfied by covering the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 quite the NORLUN for western areas on the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Suddenly next week's threat is off the table...that is a bit disconcerting. I feel like we are right on the envelope of a very snowy stormy weather pattern for the northern mid atlantic through just about all of new england, we are due a major major snow break here!! the last storm was devastating enough here in the valley, i simply cannot endure another winter like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The day 7 threat is flat. Back in the GFS again. Things looks very interesting for the next 2-3 weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well 12z should be interesting, We have had different solutions so far every model run, Guess we will see if it continues or align with something we have already seen........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you guys remember correctly the blizzard of 1978 was really just a norlun trough with some oes. This is very similar. Moneypit said he hoped we got clarity last night but didn't, I think we may have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you guys remember correctly the blizzard of 1978 was really just a norlun trough with some oes. This is very similar. Moneypit said he hoped we got clarity last night but didn't, I think we may have. We did not do as well here in the Blizz of 78........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you guys remember correctly the blizzard of 1978 was really just a norlun trough with some oes. This is very similar. Moneypit said he hoped we got clarity last night but didn't, I think we may have. We'll see how it goes. I don't think were done yet...perhaps I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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