CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Exactly what I think will transpire; OP gfs and EURO didn't worry me for a moment....I'm gonna beat you and Jerry, this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Come on guys, just admit this "Norlun trough" stuff is all an elaborate joke. I've seen the clown maps with a low hundreds of miles offshore and some silly blue finger snaking back to ORH_wxman's deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro likes the NORLUN, but at least we have some snow coming into ern mass by hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro likes the NORLUN, but at least we have some snow coming into ern mass by hr 78. qpf in CT? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EURO coming in? OK...it's coming in...NORLUN FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Euro likes the NORLUN, but at least we have some snow coming into ern mass by hr 78. These leading shortwaves really need to get in a better configuration...they are really mucking things up. The ULL is going to end up decently south this run but we aren't going to see much to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 These leading shortwaves really need to get in a better configuration...they are really mucking things up. The ULL is going to end up decently south this run but we aren't going to see much to show for it. I give it one or two more runs and what you see (or don't) is essentially what you get, but I'm pretty confident we aren't going to see much more than nuisance snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 These leading shortwaves really need to get in a better configuration...they are really mucking things up. The ULL is going to end up decently south this run but we aren't going to see much to show for it. No kidding. I want to see a nice vortmax congealed at the leading edge of the vortlobe moving off the se coast. We're just not getting that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 0.50" near NYC 0.25" line NW to SE in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No kidding. I want to see a nice vortmax congealed at the leading edge of the vortlobe moving off the se coast. We're just not getting that right now. Yeah its looking like we might find another way to screw ourselves out of a decent event. I already said this to Brian, but it would be quite ironic if NYC got more snow than most of us in this given the setup is heavily skewed toward hitting SNE climatologically. I guess it was DC/BWI last year, and now NYC this year...2011-2012 is our winter if the progression continues. Or we could end up getting hit in this anyway....long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 qpf in CT? thanks Looks like 0.35" or so up to Waterbury. Maybe 0.25 for HFD. Kevon maybe 0.2". Looks like cstl pym county and the Cape get over 0.5". With the cold ne winds, I would think someone gets some OES, combined with the inv trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like 0.35" or so up to Waterbury. Maybe 0.25 for HFD. Kevon maybe 0.2". Looks like cstl pym county and the Cape get over 0.5". With the cold ne winds, I would think someone gets some OES, combined with the inv trough. Nothing north of PYM Co? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NYC will likely beat us in that Miller A, too. ...at least the eastern half of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nothing north of PYM Co? Well BOS might get a 2-4 or 3-5 deal. Very sharp cutoff just to the nw. Maybe an inch out to Lowell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NYC will likely beat us in that Miller A, too. ...at least the eastern half of the region. Why do you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well BOS might get a 2-4 or 3-5 deal. Very sharp cutoff just to the nw. Maybe an inch out to Lowell. Alright...i'm going to keep my expectations low on this one. Maybe we can eek our way out of the D4 snow hole and see snowier solutions in the days to come. NYC jackpot in a NORLUN setup. Unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The day 7 threat is flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There's a long way to go in this setup. The spread is amazing..there's a reason the ensemble means have a decent amount of qpf for E MA and some big qpf into downeast ME despite the OP models obsessing over that norlun feature. We had almost a perfect consensus last night on E MA getting huge snows from inverted trough by GFS/GGEM/Ukie and then it changed quickly...this setup is about as volatile is it comes because its completely dependent on tiny features in the flow. The 00z suite obviously saw some little perturbation in the flow that caused this solution, but its very easy for that little perturbation to be totally different tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Why do you say that? The timing of the max H5 strength will probably be better for them and the mid levels center will probably tucked in close again....not complaining....just what I think.....long way out; just conjecture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Alright...i'm going to keep my expectations low on this one. Maybe we can eek our way out of the D4 snow hole and see snowier solutions in the days to come. NYC jackpot in a NORLUN setup. Unlikely. There is still about a day left for this to change, but under these circumstances, move on and don't expect sh**.......oes and inverted trough garbage will only lube you up. Not saying oes won't happen, but it will be of trivial consequence where we live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There is still about a day left for this to change, but under these circumstances, move on and don't expect sh**.......oes and inverted trough garbage will only lube you up. Not saying oes won't happen, but it will be of trivial consequence where we live. We get an inv trough from your Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We get an inv trough from your Miller A. Not worried at all....I'm confident that tracks between ACK and the cc canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 we got snowstorm this friday and one next week for sne area . i just dont go by models all the time just look at the weather pattern its coming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 we got snowstorm this friday and one next week for sne area . i just dont go by models all the time just look at the weather pattern its coming . Pattern recognition ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We get an inv trough from your Miller A. You'll have the deformation band, and I'll enjoy the CF from the low moving near ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You'll have the deformation band, and I'll enjoy the CF from the low moving near ACK. Tip gets snow pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Tip gets snow pellets. Its sleet...you are WRONG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 OT: Going through my deceased mother's old photo albums.... FOUND BLIZZ OF 78' PHOTOS!!!!!!! Also a 1975 first year of busing graduation yearbook!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, big change on the 6z GFS ... seems like it booted the inverted trough idea and instead retrogrades a low through northern Maine. WTF?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nice to see modelling continue to zone in on the Norlun. 6z Nam is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.