ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah I think it did. I remember how pumped I'd be when it showed a monster around d9 or d10..lol. Back in college, we used to call the MRF the "Medium Range Fantasy model" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah maybe only 168 hours way back when I first looked at it in 1994....or I didn't have access to it beyond that. Only two runs a day and that was fine ....less stress than dealing with the wild 6z and 18z runs. We only got the 12Z ECMWF and we didn't usually see it until around 7 or 8 PM. The AVN went to 72 hours. I'm thinking the MRF went 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The AVN went to 72 hours. I'm thinking the MRF went 10 days? MRF went out to 10 days...so 240 hours. Thanks guys. Last question (since all of this is way OT) when did NCEP introduce the GFS? 2002 or so...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Back in college, we used to call the MRF the "Medium Range Fantasy model" Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Do these things usually have a good probability of producing thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah maybe only 168 hours way back when I first looked at it in 1994....or I didn't have access to it beyond that. Only two runs a day and that was fine ....less stress than dealing with the wild 6z and 18z runs. We only got the 12Z ECMWF and we didn't usually see it until around 7 or 8 PM. Yup... in the late 90s it came out first on like the univ of wyoming website at like 730pm lol. I think they only ran the Euro once a day too (just 12z) NGM FOUS came out first shortly after 10... Eta FOUS right before 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Weenies don't realize how good the models are now compared to even 15 years ago. We had the MRF at 150km resolution past 72hr (almost 3x as bad as the NOGAPS) and now the GFS is about 28km out to 192hr and the Euro is 16km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The Euro was run only once a day until like 2002 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I see the 0Z GFS now has next weeks Miller A closer to Bermuda than Cape Cod. LOL I think I'd be skeptical of that solution. Yup... in the late 90s it came out first on like the univ of wyoming website at like 730pm lol. I think they only ran the Euro once a day too (just 12z) NGM FOUS came out first shortly after 10... Eta FOUS right before 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yup... in the late 90s it came out first on like the univ of wyoming website at like 730pm lol. I think they only ran the Euro once a day too (just 12z) NGM FOUS came out first shortly after 10... Eta FOUS right before 11. Your boy Boris (who reminded me a lot like Drag), used to love the NGM fous. He used to tell me, that when they signaled big qpf or winds....look out. I actually look at fous for a quick and dirty "overview" when writing TAFs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I see the 0Z GFS now has next weeks Miller A closer to Bermuda than Cape Cod. LOL I think I'd be skeptical of that solution. The ensembles park it near the Cape..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Weenies don't realize how good the models are now compared to even 15 years ago. We had the MRF at 150km resolution past 72hr (almost 3x as bad as the NOGAPS) and now the GFS is about 28km out to 192hr and the Euro is 16km. What's the word on the AmericanWx weenie wrf??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 18z models didn't even exist until 2001 I don't think...maybe they ran some in 2000, but I never saw them until 2001. I remember looking at the ETAx for the March 2001 storm...the ETAx was the ETA between 60-84 hours as the regular ETA only went to 60 hours at that time. They only had the ETAx on this terrible page on NCEP which had the worst graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Personally I think all that extra resolution helps more inside about 60 hours and with meoscale features. I dunno if model skill out at 5, 6, 7 days has improved markedly. Weenies don't realize how good the models are now compared to even 15 years ago. We had the MRF at 150km resolution past 72hr (almost 3x as bad as the NOGAPS) and now the GFS is about 28km out to 192hr and the Euro is 16km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What's the word on the AmericanWx weenie wrf??? Cory is about 90% there. He's actually hoping to get it running soon. It may not be the cluster running the full US domain initially, but he'll have an Eastern domain until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Personally I think all that extra resolution helps more inside about 60 hours and with meoscale features. I dunno if model skill out at 5, 6, 7 days has improved markedly. I think our skill for a 120 hours forecast is now equivalent to the skill of a 72 hour forecast from the 1990s...but I may wrong on that. I do know there's been quite a bit of improvement for 5 days and in...but not sure on 144 hours and beyond....probably not a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Personally I think all that extra resolution helps more inside about 60 hours and with meoscale features. I dunno if model skill out at 5, 6, 7 days has improved markedly. D5-7 is WAYYYY better than it used to be. There is actually skill now versus a dart board decades ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Remember they used to have like the meso ETA which was run at 6z and 18z. It didn't run as far out in time. That seemed to predate the full intermediate runs that we have today. The 18z models didn't even exist until 2001 I don't think...maybe they ran some in 2000, but I never saw them until 2001. I remember looking at the ETAx for the March 2001 storm...the ETAx was the ETA between 60-84 hours as the regular ETA only went to 60 hours at that time. They only had the ETAx on this terrible page on NCEP which had the worst graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Come on guys, just admit this "Norlun trough" stuff is all an elaborate joke. I've seen the clown maps with a low hundreds of miles offshore and some silly blue finger snaking back to ORH_wxman's deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Maybe the problem is with 4 runs a day you get the perception that it is just jumping all over the place... If you just stick to ensemble means it probably looks a lot more stable. D5-7 is WAYYYY better than it used to be. There is actually skill now versus a dart board decades ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cory is about 90% there. He's actually hoping to get it running soon. It may not be the cluster running the full US domain initially, but he'll have an Eastern domain until then. Awesome. Looking forward to it. All you guys did great with the whole forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Come on guys, just admit this "Norlun trough" stuff is all an elaborate joke. I've seen the clown maps with a low hundreds of miles offshore and some silly blue finger snaking back to ORH_wxman's deck. They rarely verify what models show at this time range, thats for sure. So we're all pretty much sitting tight and waiting for the Euro to show something totally different. If it doesn't, it probably will tomorrow in this delicate setup. I hate inverted troughs from a forecasting perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 18z models didn't even exist until 2001 I don't think...maybe they ran some in 2000, but I never saw them until 2001. I remember looking at the ETAx for the March 2001 storm...the ETAx was the ETA between 60-84 hours as the regular ETA only went to 60 hours at that time. They only had the ETAx on this terrible page on NCEP which had the worst graphics. Yeah and before the ETA only ran to 48 hours. Some epic discussions with messenger, jerry, rick, and myself about extrapolating a 48 hour Eta or NGM panel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah and before the ETA only ran to 48 hours. Some epic discussions with messenger, jerry, and rick about extrapolating a 48 hour Eta or NGM panel lol I remember how big of a deal it was when the extended the ETA to 60 hours in 2000. Everyone was so excited. The old ETAx back in 2001....it scored its first huge coup in the March '01 storm. It had it crushing New England at 84 hours while others were only hammering the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I remember how big of a deal it was when the extended the ETA to 60 hours in 2000. Everyone was so excited. The old ETAx back in 2001....it scored its first huge coup in the March '01 storm. It had it crushing New England at 84 hours while others were only hammering the Mid-Atlantic. Yeah Scott and our old friend Brian totally nailed that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It seems to me the NGM MOS went to 60 hours while the maps went to 48 hours. So I was always trying extrapolate what the 60 hour map might look like. Yeah and before the ETA only ran to 48 hours. Some epic discussions with messenger, jerry, rick, and myself about extrapolating a 48 hour Eta or NGM panel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well Jerry had to make sure he got his forecasts in for the NEMAS BOS office. LOL Yeah and before the ETA only ran to 48 hours. Some epic discussions with messenger, jerry, rick, and myself about extrapolating a 48 hour Eta or NGM panel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 They rarely verify what models show at this time range, thats for sure. So we're all pretty much sitting tight and waiting for the Euro to show something totally different. If it doesn't, it probably will tomorrow in this delicate setup. I hate inverted troughs from a forecasting perspective. At what time range is the model reliable forecasting a norlun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The ensembles park it near the Cape..lol. Exactly what I think will transpire; OP gfs and EURO didn't worry me for a moment....I'm gonna beat you and Jerry, this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 At what time range is the model reliable forecasting a norlun? Usually not until inside 48 hours...but even then it can be off...its never truly safe until almost up to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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