H2Otown_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was all set with 1978, anway......awful style. It was bound to lose it eventually. Although I would have thought it'd take a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When listing the five criteria found necessary the paper says "NGM T1-T5 temperature difference is 10C or greater" "NGM BL RH (R1) > 50% with a wind component from off the ocean on one side of the trough" "500mb PVA is observed with associated NGM positive 700mb VV values" What does NGM mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There's a good chance that Northfield will end up with less snow than Newark, NJ this winter. Yeah...climo evening out. lolI can't complain after 07-08 and 08-09. I'm coming back to Earth and DC made up for a few rough winters last year. NYC metro overall has been insane for the 2000s so far so they're due for some dead ratters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When listing the five criteria found necessary the paper says "NGM T1-T5 temperature difference is 10C or greater" "NGM BL RH (R1) > 50% with a wind component from off the ocean on one side of the trough" "500mb PVA is observed with associated NGM positive 700mb VV values" What does NGM mean? NGM was an old model they just retired a little under 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well at least the Canadian gives ern areas some snow. The ensembles have a strong low well east of the BM, but look to at least gives ern areas some snow. They do show the inv trough feature starting out near NYC and sw CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When listing the five criteria found necessary the paper says "NGM T1-T5 temperature difference is 10C or greater" "NGM BL RH (R1) > 50% with a wind component from off the ocean on one side of the trough" "500mb PVA is observed with associated NGM positive 700mb VV values" What does NGM mean? Man did you just make me feel old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When listing the five criteria found necessary the paper says "NGM T1-T5 temperature difference is 10C or greater" "NGM BL RH (R1) > 50% with a wind component from off the ocean on one side of the trough" "500mb PVA is observed with associated NGM positive 700mb VV values" What does NGM mean? Nested Grid Model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That's what first came to mind but I wasn't entirely sure if they meant the model or if was some sort of acronym for something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well Ray gets his Miller A wish on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When listing the five criteria found necessary the paper says "NGM T1-T5 temperature difference is 10C or greater" "NGM BL RH (R1) > 50% with a wind component from off the ocean on one side of the trough" "500mb PVA is observed with associated NGM positive 700mb VV values" What does NGM mean? Wow I feel really old right now. Do you know what the AVN or MRF is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nested Grid Model? No Good Model?? Actually, per Drag and other Mets I know..it was decent in picking out things like elevated instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow I feel really old right now. Do you know what the AVN or MRF is? Wasn't the AVN the old name for the GFS..and I think MRF was NAM-WRF (I'm younger than Paul ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No Good Model?? Actually, per Drag and other Mets I know..it was decent in picking out things like elevated instability. Back in the mid 90s it wasn't so bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No Good Model?? Actually, per Drag and other Mets I know..it was decent in picking out things like elevated instability. And the MOS was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And the MOS was pretty good. The MOS made me seem like a genius for forecasting highs in KLEB... Oh the days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And the MOS was pretty good. Yeah it was. Many times the NGM and AVN were the way to go while the Eta had some funky solutions (with weenie QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow I feel really old right now. Do you know what the AVN or MRF is? Yeah I know what they are I knew what the NGM was but I just wasn't sure that they were actually referring to the model, thought maybe it was some acronym for something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wasn't the AVN the old name for the GFS..and I think MRF was NAM-WRF (I'm younger than Paul ) NGM and ETA were the short range models. MRF was the medium range...AVN was shorter range. MRF/AVN were basically the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah it was. Many times the NGM and AVN were the way to go while the Eta had some funky solutions (with weenie QPF). I use to look at NGM fous a lot at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NGM and ETA were the short range models. MRF was the medium range...AVN was shorter range. MRF/AVN were basically the GFS. MRF was the same as the AVN but run on a lower resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NGM and ETA were the short range models. MRF was the medium range...AVN was shorter range. MRF/AVN were basically the GFS. So there was no such thing as a model that went out 384 hrs? How far out did the MRF go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No Good Model?? Actually, per Drag and other Mets I know..it was decent in picking out things like elevated instability. I'll make everyone feel worse and say that I knew that from reading about it in older texts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I use to look at NGM fous a lot at work. Back in the old chat days Jerry would always post the Eta and NGM FOUS data first before a big storm. When LGA was getting hammered it was a good sign. How far we've come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So the current models can pick up a norlun trough? At what point can you be pretty sure where it sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So there was no such thing as a model that went out 384 hrs? How far out did the MRF go? The AVN went to 72 hours. I'm thinking the MRF went 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 MRF was the same as the AVN but run on a lower resolution. Yeah that's sorta what I meant. I think the resolution dropped off from like 100km to 150km. We've come a long ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The AVN went to 72 hours. I'm thinking the MRF went 10 days? Yeah 240hrs I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So there was no such thing as a model that went out 384 hrs? How far out did the MRF go? MRF went out to 10 days...so 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm telling you, I'm feelin' somethin' here. Close to locking in an advisory event. For some reason the unpredictable keeps telling me I won. Well OKX seems semi-confident on a advisory level snow event for the CWA.. and that was before the 0z runs. THERE IS A MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL EVENTFOR THE FORECAST AREA FRI...BUT MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR AWARNING LEVEL EVENT. ENHANCED BANDING WITH SUCH A SETUP WILL NOTBE CLEAR UNTIL WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT START TIME...AND EVENTHEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES TO THE ORIENTATION. THESE TYPE OFEVENTS ARE RARE AND OFTEN IMPACT A VERY NARROW...YET LONG SWATH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The AVN went to 72 hours. I'm thinking the MRF went 10 days? Yeah I think it did. I remember how pumped I'd be when it showed a monster around d9 or d10..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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