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Pattern/storm inverted trough thread early Jan


Damage In Tolland

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It may in fact play out as a SWFE but the deep antecedent cold should help us (even me) keep snow longer. Net gain of snow is what we need.

I don't think this will track any closer than the cc canal; I'm far more concerned with dry slotting (negated by cf maybe) rather than precip type issues....at least imby.

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So this now bears absolutely no resemblance to 1978 right? I always cringe when I see those things tossed about so many days in advance.

I think that came from a discussion of how the upper levels resembled it at the time it was being modeled a few days ago, not as an analog.

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If you compare the euro and gfs at H5, they are not that far apart, but the GFS clearly likes the NORLUN, probably because the s/w is stronger over NYC. Verbatim it's better then previous runs. I think a NORLUN is def on the table, but it wasn't far off at the surface for something better. I agree with Will and Ryan, that this will start out as an inv trough...almost a given, but what happens afterwards??

Yeah...should be entertaining.

I'm out for tonight. Here's to the ec bringing a powerhouse Near the bm. :snowman:

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I dunno...maybe I'm positive Pete, but this run was better imo.

Yeah I didn't mind it. It did shove the whole vortex south of us eventually...we just need to get that initial push a little sharper in orientation and weaken that lead wave more. Not easy to do, but certainly within the realm of possibilities.

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Better, I agree. But still just gives us a NORLUN scenario. It's going to take a lot to give us some of the more weenie solutions.

I'm not looking for those...just give me that trough to the south with cold ne winds. I got the help of Atlantic moisture. I do like the fact it moves to the euro, which was less severe with the stupid NORLUN.

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The 00z models are definitely seeing something that is really keeping the base of that trough rounded....it looks the same on the Ukie at 72h. Hopefully what they are seeing is something that will be augmented in future runs with better data.

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