CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I dunno...maybe I'm positive Pete, but this run was better imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It may in fact play out as a SWFE but the deep antecedent cold should help us (even me) keep snow longer. Net gain of snow is what we need. I don't think this will track any closer than the cc canal; I'm far more concerned with dry slotting (negated by cf maybe) rather than precip type issues....at least imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Tonights runs have assurd me of another good nights sleep............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So this now bears absolutely no resemblance to 1978 right? I always cringe when I see those things tossed about so many days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So this now bears absolutely no resemblance to 1978 right? I always cringe when I see those things tossed about so many days in advance. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Crazy Uncle...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So this now bears absolutely no resemblance to 1978 right? I always cringe when I see those things tossed about so many days in advance. I think that came from a discussion of how the upper levels resembled it at the time it was being modeled a few days ago, not as an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I dunno...maybe I'm positive Pete, but this run was better imo. Better, I agree. But still just gives us a NORLUN scenario. It's going to take a lot to give us some of the more weenie solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you compare the euro and gfs at H5, they are not that far apart, but the GFS clearly likes the NORLUN, probably because the s/w is stronger over NYC. Verbatim it's better then previous runs. I think a NORLUN is def on the table, but it wasn't far off at the surface for something better. I agree with Will and Ryan, that this will start out as an inv trough...almost a given, but what happens afterwards?? Yeah...should be entertaining. I'm out for tonight. Here's to the ec bringing a powerhouse Near the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I dunno...maybe I'm positive Pete, but this run was better imo. Yeah I didn't mind it. It did shove the whole vortex south of us eventually...we just need to get that initial push a little sharper in orientation and weaken that lead wave more. Not easy to do, but certainly within the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Better, I agree. But still just gives us a NORLUN scenario. It's going to take a lot to give us some of the more weenie solutions. When we have blocking of this magnitude, alot is often not too much, as we saw with respect to last week's MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Better, I agree. But still just gives us a NORLUN scenario. It's going to take a lot to give us some of the more weenie solutions. I'm not looking for those...just give me that trough to the south with cold ne winds. I got the help of Atlantic moisture. I do like the fact it moves to the euro, which was less severe with the stupid NORLUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well I'm out. Need to be on the T by 7:30 AM. Here's to improving possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Crazy Uncle...... That looks to be just outside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That looks to be just outside the benchmark. It is. So is France. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well I'm out. Need to be on the T by 7:30 AM. Here's to improving possibilities. I think the 7 year itch would be more entertaining than these computer models lately. Have a good evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The TV mets dont like to use the N word, do they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm locking 1-3" for me from this "event" unless we can get that NORLUM thing.. to move north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like the Miller A will also whiff; what an awful, awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was all set with 1978, anway......awful style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 00z models are definitely seeing something that is really keeping the base of that trough rounded....it looks the same on the Ukie at 72h. Hopefully what they are seeing is something that will be augmented in future runs with better data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 geez, GFS sucks tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The TV mets dont like to use the N word, do they It would probably confuse the hell out of people. I still don't even really get what norlun trough means? How's it differ from an inverted trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It would probably confuse the hell out of people. I still don't even really get what norlun trough means? How's it differ from an inverted trough? Have you read this before? http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Have you read this before? http://www.weatheran...lic/NORLUN2.pdf I have not. I've bookmarked it and will start reading it now. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEM likes NYC/CT as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEM likes NYC/CT as well. That would be kind of funny if NYC metro ends up getting the most out of this after it looking like a SNE special for most of the way....and ona norlun trough too which favors MA/NH/ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That would be kind of funny if NYC metro ends up getting the most out of this after it looking like a SNE special for most of the way....and ona norlun trough too which favors MA/NH/ME NE-SW gradient. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEM likes NYC/CT as well. I'm telling you, I'm feelin' somethin' here. Close to locking in an advisory event. For some reason the unpredictable keeps telling me I won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NE-SW gradient. AWT. There's a good chance that Northfield will end up with less snow than Newark, NJ this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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