CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The gfs and euro aren't all that different at H5, but the gfs loves the NORLUN. This GFS run is an improvement though, from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cha Ching for CT on this run. Norlun or bust... unfortunately that means "bust" for most people. The lucky few will cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The same fate is suffered on the GFS that the name had...the base of the whole trough is too rounded as it goes negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 well it couldnt be much worse, recall the 18z GFS gave practically zilcho to boston. This run looks to bring 6+ to NYC.....jury is still out on the rest of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cha Ching for CT on this run. Norlun or bust... unfortunately that means "bust" for most people. The lucky few will cash in. Not sure I'd want "cha ching" at this stage......that will trend ne and less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not sure I'd want "cha ching" at this stage......that will trend ne and less impressive. As I've been saying all night most of us will get screwed on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cha Ching for CT on this run. Norlun or bust... unfortunately that means "bust" for most people. The lucky few will cash in. It's preferred we cash in while Kevin gets heavy, thick overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NYC/SW CT FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 well it couldnt be much worse, recall the 18z GFS gave practically zilcho to boston. It is for some.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 As I've been saying all night most of us will get screwed on this one. I'm already mentally and emotionally detatching from this one and looking toward next week.....but I'll keep an eye on it through tmw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cha Ching for CT on this run. Norlun or bust... unfortunately that means "bust" for most people. The lucky few will cash in. I keep winning or being near it - I'm starting to feel good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, no Mega Millions cha ching here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I keep winning or being near it - I'm starting to feel good! Don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just don't really see given the current setup how this trends better than a narrow NORLUN bringing fun to some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'll take it at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I keep winning or being near it - I'm starting to feel good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This will shift NE with time to it's usual climo position giving me, Ray, and Eric a nice little 5-8'' snow. In my dreams...see you tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 As Will said...verbatim it blows but it's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Did that guy whose girlfriend posted we were being mean to him return yet? I could easily answer his questions with, "most likely, no good snow for you" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 As I've been saying all night most of us will get screwed on this one. There are just so many pieces to this puzzle...that's a ballsy call this early (props to you though if that's indeed the case). I could just see a few subtle interactions not going as modeled tonight bringing an entirely different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Don't. I'm trying! It's sucking me in. I can't help it, I've been in the blue time and time again today. If there are any odds for this sort of thing, which I know can't be predicted basically even through midday Friday, I have to be near the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 As I said earlier in the day. Of the two potential storm systems coming the first looks ok/horrible while i feel like it will be the second one that will be the winner in the pair much like back in the last two weeks of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm not even paying attention to the next week threat. D8-9 threats can easily be displaced into irrelevance without substantially effecting verification scores of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just don't really see given the current setup how this trends better than a narrow NORLUN bringing fun to some areas. Look at some of the good SREF members...I think thats how we would do it. We don;t have such a rounded base of the trough as it goes negative...instead we have a sharper base with more focuses vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm not even paying attention to the next week threat. D8-9 threats can easily be displaced into irrelevance without substantially effecting verification scores of models. That one is for real. Only limiting factors being that it's Miller A and has a propensity to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm not even paying attention to the next week threat. D8-9 threats can easily be displaced into irrelevance without substantially effecting verification scores of models. I know I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you compare the euro and gfs at H5, they are not that far apart, but the GFS clearly likes the NORLUN, probably because the s/w is stronger over NYC. Verbatim it's better then previous runs. I think a NORLUN is def on the table, but it wasn't far off at the surface for something better. I agree with Will and Ryan, that this will start out as an inv trough...almost a given, but what happens afterwards?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There are just so many pieces to this puzzle...that's a ballsy call this early (props to you though if that's indeed the case). I could just see a few subtle interactions not going as modeled tonight bringing an entirely different outcome. Well I think a couple inches is the most likely scenario for many areas... but people expecting a 6"+ event will likely be disappointed. Even if we get a nice NORLUN setup only some cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That one is for real. Only limiting factors being that it's Miller A and has a propensity to hug. It may in fact play out as a SWFE but the deep antecedent cold should help us (even me) keep snow longer. Net gain of snow is what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Look at some of the good SREF members...I think thats how we would do it. We don;t have such a rounded base of the trough as it goes negative...instead we have a sharper base with more focuses vorticity. Yeah, but it's still a NORLUN. It's either a strong NORLUN that slowly transitions to CCB or just a regular old norlun that pounds a couple counties. Unfortunately the trends have been moving away from a stronger and sharper trough toward a broader one so I think odds favor a weaker solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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