Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Again....many of the KUs are set up with inverted trofs as preludes. I urge you to review this if you have the book. If not, we can look at it next time we see each other. I know but KU's are rare, model depictions of norluns are pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 A lot of them in Maine sneak up without much modeling showing them at all. I have been in on a few Norluns here over the years.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know but KU's are rare, model depictions of norluns are pretty common. And the actual taking place is fairly common. What is uncommon is heavy snow from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Messenger while the 12h plots are important to some degree, I don't that will change this much at all. Right now it looks like the models are focusing on a more elongated H5 low over LK Erie and eastern MI rather than bringing the whole H5 low through to the coast and south of the region. I still think we have about 36 hours to go before anyone gains confidence in the models. Just the spread on the SREF ensembles is amazing as well as the GEFS means. I think we need to sit back and continue to watch this with open minds. Should be an amazing roller coaster the next 1 and a half days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS and NAM are fairly similar through 24. GFS may be oriented a bit more southerly with the main PV...but other than that real minor differences. EDIT: and that's a radical departure from earlier GFS runs...in terms of the energy west of the PV. It's diving at a much steeper angle earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And the actual taking place is fairly common. What is uncommon is heavy snow from them. Exactly....this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Quite different at H5 comparing 36 hours...not close to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Quite different at H5 comparing 36 hours...not close to me. you mean b/w NAM & GFS? or previous GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS doesn't seem all that different at hr 42, compared to the 12z euro at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's a really tough situation right now. There is still alot of spread possible on the outcome of things. However, I would give a high probability on snowNH getting banned in the near future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's also weaker with the low that scoots out well east of HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Oh boy...just took my first look at that day 8 threat....LOVE that high to the N of ME, but hopefully it remains considering the ungodly lead time......def. shot of 20" via CF enhancement....who knows, but hope abound should this one continue to fall victim to the inverted gods..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 you mean b/w NAM & GFS? or previous GFS run? vs NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is much deeper with the S/w digging from the lakes. Good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's also weaker with the low that scoots out well east of HSE. Yep...hopefully that's helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Quite different at H5 comparing 36 hours...not close to me. Major features are in roughly the same place, structure is similar, big difference is the GFS is coming down at a much sharper angle as mentioned vs the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS doesn't seem all that different at hr 42, compared to the 12z euro at hr 54. Not a bad thing....EURO type evoloution with subtle differences aloft is probably our best bet, at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's also weaker with the low that scoots out well east of HSE. 6mb weaker.. that is good based on what you guys mentioned earlier.. but not further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 6mb weaker.. that is good based on what you guys mentioned earlier.. but not further east. I think we have already seen enough to declare this run a win, regardless of what happens from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Lead piece offshore weaker and further east should help down the road... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think we have already seen enough to declare this run a win, regardless of what happens from here on out. yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Light snow to BOS by 15Z Friday....higher intensity snow around PHL/S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yeah right. Not being sarcastic.....seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yeah right. He's being serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This definitly going to be a better run...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS has a much better angle of attack on the two main players. Not the blunted turd on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This run is going to suck verbatim, but I'm glad the lead storm is a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not being sarcastic.....seriously. well.. I'm growing more confident it will be a better run.. but not when I posted that, so I guess you are getting better at reading these maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NYC gets nice snow Friday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This definitly going to be a better run...... well it couldnt be much worse, recall the 18z GFS gave practically zilcho to boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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