dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here's the SREF total precip...definitely some huge weenie solutions in there. edit: Brian beat me to it. There's a first for everything. Some of those runs go bonkers with H5 and turning a firehose inverted trough of snow into a landfalling bomb through Ray's backyard. Fun to look at, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It looks like it's just going to come down to the lucky people in the 50 mile or so wide swath of the inverted trough where some decent snows falls. Someone will like this pattern...someone with just flurries will hate it. I just want to say given the degree of change in the NAM in 12 hours although I'm a little bummed it didn't show a better solution it doesn't make me feel better or worse about this system. My expectations are of light hit to a miss, so this doesn't change that much one way or the other. If the GFS and one other model agree that this is a flat diddly dick system where we have to rely on trough snows wake me up Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cue the funeral music for this one.... setting your expectations on an inverted trough is like setting your expectations on winning 330 million on mega millions tonight i'd rather win the 330mil... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There were getting some snow in BTV because I had 92.9F on from there and the traffic report said roads were slick etc. That station came in good all the way down to maybe 20 miles above ALB. Montreal stations were saying 2-4 cm ...not exactly a blizzard. we got about an inch here. very weak clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cue the funeral music for this one.... setting your expectations on an inverted trough is like setting your expectations on winning 330 million on mega millions tonight It's definitely been a bad trend.Dec 16: unlimited posts/day Dec 26: 5 posts/day Jan 6: ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There's a first for everything. Some of those runs go bonkers with H5 and turning a firehose inverted trough of snow into a landfalling bomb through Ray's backyard. Fun to look at, but that's about it. There will be an inverted trough for sure from this...but I think the legit question is whether it can be wrapped up into a pseudo CCB feature and really go nuts over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cue the funeral music for this one.... setting your expectations on an inverted trough is like setting your expectations on winning 330 million on mega millions tonight Norluns can be surprising and sneaky...I'd untie yourself for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's definitely been a bad trend. Dec 16: unlimited posts/day Dec 26: 5 posts/day Jan 6: ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Maybe the NAM took all my leftover beer from New Years. I have a lot left over, need a major weekend storm to put a dent in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There will be an inverted trough for sure from this...but I think the legit question is whether it can be wrapped up into a pseudo CCB feature and really go nuts over the region. What determines whether a given storm produces a Norlun, Will? How do we know this is guaranteed to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You would on the 18z gfs. You and I share a "high" fetish, my friend.....the likes of which will be catered to next week. This winter is just starting and the cold is endless.....NBD in the grand scheme if this shats the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I can see this end up pissing alot of people off, some towns will see very little of anything while some other towns could end up seeing several inches. Despite any lack of significant QPF maybe some of that can be compensate for with some fairly good snowfall ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If that 5 h stays elongated west to east you can also kiss your day 8 bomb goodbye, just saying , things are not evolving as planned yesterday ULL wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There will be an inverted trough for sure from this...but I think the legit question is whether it can be wrapped up into a pseudo CCB feature and really go nuts over the region. I understand this sentiment, but from my perspective, it's best to not devote your life to following it because even it does evolve into some sort of grand, 50-mile-wide party, chances are that you (not you, personally) won't be in it. Time better spent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What determines whether a given storm produces a Norlun, Will? How do we know this is guaranteed to? You normally need a nice cold deep upper level low going over a region and a storm trying to escape east...this usually tugs back the isobars as the upper level support is favoring cyclogenesis, but the baroclinic zone is kind of shot off to the east...so what ytou get is a focused area of low level convergence (usually E or NE winds on the east side of the inverted trough and W or NW winds on the west side...where the winds are converging you see a narrow but intense area of lift....and you end up with a narrow band of snowfall (or even sometimes rain) as a result. The cold pool aloft helps with instability too which can enhance the lift. They are extremely difficult to predict and the location can change 100 miles ona model run as little as 12-24 hours before the event. So that's why if the event is likely ot have an inverted trough as the main feature, its impossible to get detailed ona forecast until the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 someone asked me earlier how much and I said .5" to 20" leaning towards .5 .. looks like srefs have even more spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You normally need a nice cold deep upper level low going over a region and a storm trying to escape east...this usually tugs back the isobars as the upper level support is favoring cyclogenesis, but the baroclinic zone is kind of shot off to the east...so what ytou get is a focused area of low level convergence (usually E or NE winds on the east side of the inverted trough and W or NW winds on the west side...where the winds are converging you see a narrow but intense area of lift....and you end up with a narrow band of snowfall (or even sometimes rain) as a result. The cold pool aloft helps with instability too which can enhance the lift. They are extremely difficult to predict and the location can change 100 miles ona model run as little as 12-24 hours before the event. So that's why if the event is likely ot have an inverted trough as the main feature, its impossible to get detailed ona forecast until the last second. Great answer...interesting! I always feel as if inverted troughs tend to set up to my Northeast but maybe NYC metro gets lucky this time. That's what the NAM seems to think, although I doubt we get the .75" QPF it shows from this scenario. Thinking we have a shot at 3-6" snowfall but not much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's definitely been a bad trend. Dec 16: unlimited posts/day Dec 26: 5 posts/day Jan 6: ? Lmao!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Great answer...interesting! I always feel as if inverted troughs tend to set up to my Northeast but maybe NYC metro gets lucky this time. That's what the NAM seems to think, although I doubt we get the .75" QPF it shows from this scenario. Thinking we have a shot at 3-6" snowfall but not much more. Yeah climo tends to say coastal nh/me..sometimes ma. Makes sense when you consider the players needed/involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Great answer...interesting! I always feel as if inverted troughs tend to set up to my Northeast but maybe NYC metro gets lucky this time. That's what the NAM seems to think, although I doubt we get the .75" QPF it shows from this scenario. Thinking we have a shot at 3-6" snowfall but not much more. Just having a fair snowpack when the real arctic cold hits is good enough for me. Nothing is more frustrating than big time cold with nothing but bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Watch the 00z suite pitch a shutout, only have the EURO retrograde 1978 into our region.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Great answer...interesting! I always feel as if inverted troughs tend to set up to my Northeast but maybe NYC metro gets lucky this time. That's what the NAM seems to think, although I doubt we get the .75" QPF it shows from this scenario. Thinking we have a shot at 3-6" snowfall but not much more. I'd say a majority of the time norluns "set up" on weather models only. GFS is running, let's hold the phone on storm cancelleation until after the full run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah climo tends to say coastal nh/me..sometimes ma. Makes sense when you consider the players needed/involved. Care to elaborate....I know that that area is favored, but I'm not quite sure as to why.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd say a majority of the time norluns "set up" on weather models only. A lot of them in Maine sneak up without much modeling showing them at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cue the funeral music for this one.... setting your expectations on an inverted trough is like setting your expectations on winning 330 million on mega millions tonight Go read the Kocin-Uccelini book. Some of the really epic NE storms came in that way. Not to say we get anything but MOST storms have inverted trof elements in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd say a majority of the time norluns "set up" on weather models only. GFS is running, let's hold the phone on storm cancelleation until after the full run. Norlun wise 90% of the regions posters will be shafted, we need a return to previous 5 h solutions to get more than dustings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Watch the 00z suite pitch a shutout, only have the EURO retrograde 1978 into our region.... Thats baiscally what happened 2nights ago...all the models sucked and then the Euro went nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd say a majority of the time norluns "set up" on weather models only. GFS is running, let's hold the phone on storm cancelleation until after the full run. Again....many of the KUs are set up with inverted trofs as preludes. I urge you to review this if you have the book. If not, we can look at it next time we see each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Compared to the changes we saw on the NAM the 12h GFS changes are much more minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah climo tends to say coastal nh/me..sometimes ma. Makes sense when you consider the players needed/involved. Yeah usually norluns trend a bit NE with time...but occasionally you can get a good inverted trough south. Philly had that one in Feb 2009 that gave them like 8 inches of snow...so it does happen on rare occasions south. But E coast of MA up through Maine are the sweet spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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