CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think it's still up in the air as far as NORLUN or inv trough snows that evolve into somewhat of a comma head. The gfs and now the 00z NAM seem to hint at this, but the GEM and Euro aren't as severe with the NORLUN. It starts as inv trough type snows, but sort of evolves to almost a CCB, but we are still on the western fringe. I def could see NORLUN snows that give a narrow area some fun, but I don't think it's a given. At least at this stage. Yeah agreed. Even 24 hours out it's tough to predict where the NORLUN will set up.... and made more difficult since it's so narrow. I think given the recent trends of a more broad ULL/trough at a more NW location we're probably getting away from bigger threats and now looking at a narrow band of light-moderate snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 FWIW, the euro ensembles have 40-50% probs of 0.5" liquid in 12hrs for eastern areas, by 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think the general pattern is coming into better focus. I definitely feel much more comfortable about this storm than the previous. Is that the best word for it at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's always really hard to get these polar lows to dive to below our latitude; I feel as if the models tend to overdo these type of solutions and thus create something out of nothing. I seem to remember once during Winter 08-09, the GFS had the PV coming down and creating a full-on blizzard in the medium range, sort of like the ECM from the other day, but the solution ended up being a fairly mundane cold front. This one appears to be the same as we don't really have the digging to get a Nor'easter started and thus the precipitation will probably be relegated to instability snow showers and a few inches from the Norlun. Not very exciting but hopefully it whitens the ground for everyone and gets quickly into the 50/50 position for the Miller A threat next week. Exactly. That's why you get crazy solutions when the closed low dives underneath us a la 1978. It's unusual and can produce epic results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I don't expect for any real solution to be honed in on by the models for another 24-36 hours. Yeah if that. Would feel no different if the nam had just smoked sne. We've just now moved out of model la-la land and into the time frame when we *should* actually start to consider the possibility of a storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There are some ridiculous solutions on the SREFs...lol. The spread is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 FWIW, the euro ensembles have 40-50% probs of 0.5" liquid in 12hrs for eastern areas, by 12z Saturday. Well NAM sort of laid an egg though it DOES hold out some hope for later light snows beyond 84 hours for some. Let's see what GFS/CMC/UK does. Euro (for me) waits till AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 LOL, for me the fact that I looked at the GFS yesterday AM and it had moved some features 1000 miles in 12 hours, and to look at the NAM tonight and see it do the same....not that interested in this system yet. The NAM does have moisture re-increasing over us at 84, and it is backign moisture down from Maine at the same time. but let's face it, it blows. Yeah it's a bad setup. Let's be honest about it. Will someone squeeze out 10"... possibly... but for the majority of us this is not a good setup and is getting worse. Hopefully the other models sharpen up the trough or bring the ULL south a bit and we can start to close off a second low east of SNE. The earlier solutions with the NORLUN turning into a CCB were able to focus s/w energy and let it to amplify underneath us with a sharper parent low in the Great Lakes. Now we're moving toward a broader low which keeps a NORLUN type situation but doesn't allow it to go wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think the general pattern is coming into better focus. I definitely feel much more comfortable about this storm than the previous. LOL no matter what you could get hosed on your forecast, if a Norlun develops you could be forecasting some snow and your area get blitzes, people will not know the difference, then again nothing could happen. Bad turn of events on the NAM for any widespread snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 FWIW, the euro ensembles have 40-50% probs of 0.5" liquid in 12hrs for eastern areas, by 12z Saturday. Thx scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks like it could be nothing for ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 LOL no matter what you could get hosed on your forecast, if a Norlun develops you could be forecasting some snow and your area get blitzes, people will not know the difference, then again nothing could happen. Bad turn of events on the NAM for any widespread snow. I said at 5 and 6 that I could see a couple inches... maybe a light to moderate event. So I definitely left the door open for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 FWIW, the euro ensembles have 40-50% probs of 0.5" liquid in 12hrs for eastern areas, by 12z Saturday. yea a norlun from hell with high ratio's FTW is our best shot at this stage IMO. get that lead SW to be weaker and shear out NE......... we want is weaker and way the F out to sea....not a bit closer to muck things up even more....It's not about to move 300 miles SW to where it would actually hit us....so Get it The F($K away. then like will said sharpen the base of the trough and roll the dice. Euro was said to keep that lead SW weaker and then OTS And gives us 40/50% probs of .5 liquid by sat am. that's damn good in my book. l will be focusing on what euro does with that lead SW...at 0z ...better keep it weak king euro.......nite folks. the 1978 analog i.e SPV under us threat appears to be on life support....just give me a norlun from hell over e 1/2 of sne/cne over a 60 hr period ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thx scott It's mostly inside 128 and down by you, but that's not bad this far out. LOL, another solution we have. What a mess to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was caught in the clipper today that everyone forgot about. I had to go up to Elizabethtown, NY ...Dacks about 60 miles south of the border and a beautiful snowy day. Snow accumulation mainly above Chestertown...up to 2 inches in places. I think the general pattern is coming into better focus. I definitely feel much more comfortable about this storm than the previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think it's still up in the air as far as NORLUN or inv trough snows that evolve into somewhat of a comma head. The gfs and now the 00z NAM seem to hint at this, but the GEM and Euro aren't as severe with the NORLUN. It starts as inv trough type snows, but sort of evolves to almost a CCB, but we are still on the western fringe. I def could see NORLUN snows that give a narrow area some fun, but I don't think it's a given. At least at this stage. I'm moving onto the Miller A if we are still relying on an inverted trough of gold at the end of an inverted rainbow, by 12z tmw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just want to say given the degree of change in the NAM in 12 hours although I'm a little bummed it didn't show a better solution it doesn't make me feel better or worse about this system. My expectations are of light hit to a miss, so this doesn't change that much one way or the other. If the GFS and one other model agree that this is a flat diddly dick system where we have to rely on trough snows wake me up Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was caught in the clipper today that everyone forgot about. I had to go up to Elizabethtown, NY ...Dacks about 60 miles south of the border and a beautful snowy day. Snow accumulation mainly above Chestertown...up to 2 inches in places. Nice! I'm hoping the ski areas in VT can cash in on 1-3" of powder for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm moving onto the Miller A if we are still relying on an inverted trough at the end of an inverted rainbow, by 12z tmw. Ray...let's make RSM3 happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yea a norlun from hell with high ratio's FTW is our best shot at this stage IMO. get that lead SW to be weaker and shear out NE......... we want is weaker and way the F out to sea....not a bit closer to muck things up even more....It's not about to move 300 miles SW to where it would actually hit us....so Get it The F($K away. then like will said sharpen the base of the trough and roll the dice. Euro was said to keep that lead SW weaker and then OTS And gives us 40/50% probs of .5 liquid by sat am. that's damn good in my book. l will be focusing on what euro does with that lead SW...at 0z ...better keep it weak king euro.......nite folks. the 1978 threat SPV under us threat appears to be on life support....just give me a norlun from hell over e 1/2 of sne/cne over a 60 hr period ok. I hope people didn't have their hearts set on that. There is a reason why that storm may be more than a 100 yr storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's mostly inside 128 and down by you, but that's not bad this far out. LOL, another solution we have. What a mess to figure out. I was pleasantly surprised by how strong the mean was...977 nearing NS is impressive at 96hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ray...let's make RSM3 happen. I'm w ya. I'm not going bi*** and ruin the thread like I usually do, but this is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here's the SREF total precip...definitely some huge weenie solutions in there. edit: Brian beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There were getting some snow in BTV because I had 92.9F on from there and the traffic report said roads were slick etc. That station came in good all the way down to maybe 20 miles above ALB. Montreal stations were saying 2-4 cm ...not exactly a blizzard. Nice! I'm hoping the ski areas in VT can cash in on 1-3" of powder for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 LOL at RSM3. Check out what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ray...let's make RSM3 happen. Might be meaningless but the mean there is about perfect climo depiction of a NORLUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love how strong the high is with regard to that Miller A.....I maybe able to score a cf outta of a track close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I said at 5 and 6 that I could see a couple inches... maybe a light to moderate event. So I definitely left the door open for some snow. Explain the difference, use les as example, narrow corridor of heavy snow, most people are not as dumb as the media thinks, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love how strong the high is with regard to that Miller A.....I maybe able to score a cf outta of a track close to the coast. You would on the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cue the funeral music for this one.... setting your expectations on an inverted trough is like setting your expectations on winning 330 million on mega millions tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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