CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Maybe the NAM took all my leftover beer from New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I wonder if the NAM is going to pull a Euro from a few runs ago...its rotting the ULL in the lakes and new energy is coming in...it might produce something beyond the model time frame, lol. What a bizarre solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It was a pretty big change from 18z..lol. I thought we might get clarity tonight - I hope this isn't the clarity. We get the remnant of a trough. Exciting. The angle of the dangle on all that energy is just sucky. It's diving in with too much of a SE component so it's blunted and the entire structure is shaped like a testicle west to east. This is the perfect pork job. Not close enough to retrograde the first storm snows for much of us, just the right timing to not get the heaviest trough snows in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 WILL....that 72...hr 980 low SE of novia scotia is doing us ZERO favors ....i wanna see this weaken and/ or be more EAST ...just away. ...this is mucking things up for us big time ...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's a bummer that we seem to be converging on solutions away from getting the ULL to dive underneath us and start something fun. It doesn't "want" to be down here so its not that surprising if it holds north. Still doesn't mean we can't get a nice storm out of some energy coming down through the trough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The run blows but it does give us some snow at the end of the run continuing. I spent the past hour reading the Kocin bible. Amazing how many of our signature huge storms had inverted trofs to start....many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It keeps the closed low in sort of the same spot in Michigan. The differences are the shortwaves rounding the base of the trough. At least in a generic sense it's keeping a sort of boring 500mb low position and we're relying on some type of norlun/inverted trough setup. 18z delivered that... 00z doesn't. Nature of the beast. Yeah it keeps the 500 low in a similar spot, but these s/w's are totally screwing with the orientation. I don't want to see it stretched out way to the se, and then pinch off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The big problem is the PV (sorry John) becomes less vertically elongated and as such doesn't allow anything beyond the Norlun type setup up which is hit or miss and almost impossible to call outside of a very short lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 WILL....that 72...hr 980 low SE of novia scotia is doing us ZERO favors ....i wanna see this weaken and/ or be more EAST ...just away. ...this is mucking things up for us big time ...no? No, that low certainly isn't doing us any favors. I would like to see it gone or well east and out of the picture. I think it helps keep the base of the trough from amplifying as much as it could compared to if it wasn't there at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah it keeps the 500 low in a similar spot, but these s/w's are totally screwing with the orientation. I don't want to see it stretched out way to the se, and then pinch off. Yeah the problem is we're relying on a shi*ty 500mb low position to deliver the goods. The way we get good snow is getting a shortwave to dig away from the closed low (probably won't happen close enough to us) or get a long strung out piece of vorticty to produce enough forcing to lower pressure and give us an inverted trough kind of setup. This is definitely not the setup most of us want and will screw the majority of us while some of us cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm just a novice at this but a big difference I notice 0z NAM vs 18z NAM at hr 48/54 respectively is the vortex over western canada was closed off from the trough at this same time but it appears open and is dumping energy into the trough. Not sure what if any impact this would have just a difference I saw and was wondering about. (am I reading this right?) yes that is something different on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 does that run even give ema flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 OT but PD1. A foot at Central Park and something like 2 inches at Stamford, CT. Good thing I was in LA...I'd have been swinging...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's kind of like a firehose of vorticity on the backside of the trough. I think I'd like to see it a little more concentrated. And it can't because the flow is too fast; the frequency is off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 another run and another solution. Can't we get run to run consistency on any model. Amazingly the models do seem to be converging on an inv trof like solution. But that's now. 12z tomorrow, we will probably have a bunch of new solutions. Amazing! I wonder if the NAM is going to pull a Euro from a few runs ago...its rotting the ULL in the lakes and new energy is coming in...it might produce something beyond the model time frame, lol. What a bizarre solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 does that run even give ema flurries? By the end of the run light snow makes it to about the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The run blows but it does give us some snow at the end of the run continuing. I spent the past hour reading the Kocin bible. Amazing how many of our signature huge storms had inverted trofs to start....many. It's a total disaster. Horrible. It's one model and it shifted thousands of miles collectively since 12z but if the GFS goes down the same road stretching out the structure more west to east we're rapidly heading out ot the threat window unless we find a magic trailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Even though our models are disagreeing... they're in better agreement now than they were for the last storm. The general setup appears to be in good agreement. The issue now is the orientation and timing of individual shortwaves to produce some kind of inverted trough snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's a total disaster. Horrible. It's one model and it shifted thousands of miles collectively since 12z but if the GFS goes down the same road stretching out the structure more west to east we're rapidly heading out ot the threat window unless we find a magic trailer. This run is a perfect example of why someone (like Kevin) who's locked in a 4-8" solution based on an inverted trough and an upper level low in a terrible position busts 9 times out of 10. Way too much can go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah it keeps the 500 low in a similar spot, but these s/w's are totally screwing with the orientation. I don't want to see it stretched out way to the se, and then pinch off. The fact that we have pancake shaped trough doesn't help. Sheared out city. The theme of this winter has been elongated ULL's. We need the energy diving just east of south, not slamming SE. If the other models show it too..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The funny thing is this: Didn't many people a week ago speculate that this system would be easier for modeling to figure out and totally different vs last one? Well it is different but if anything it appears harder. That said......I agree with messenger......this threat is on life support. The only solace is that run to run consistency is non existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 By the end of the run light snow makes it to about the Pike. Ray will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 another run and another solution. Can't we get run to run consistency on any model. Amazingly the models do seem to be converging on an inv trof like solution. But that's now. 12z tomorrow, we will probably have a bunch of new solutions. Amazing! I don't expect for any real solution to be honed in on by the models for another 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Even though our models are disagreeing... they're in better agreement now than they were for the last storm. The general setup appears to be in good agreement. The issue now is the orientation and timing of individual shortwaves to produce some kind of inverted trough snows. I think it's still up in the air as far as NORLUN or inv trough snows that evolve into somewhat of a comma head. The gfs and now the 00z NAM seem to hint at this, but the GEM and Euro aren't as severe with the NORLUN. It starts as inv trough type snows, but sort of evolves to almost a CCB, but we are still on the western fringe. I def could see NORLUN snows that give a narrow area some fun, but I don't think it's a given. At least at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The funny thing is this: Didn't many people a week ago speculate that this system would be easier for modeling to figure out and totally different vs last one? Well it is different but if anything it appears harder. That said......I agree with messenger......this threat is on life support. The only solace is that run to run consistency is non existent. Agreed, as far as a uniform region wide threat. Still think odds are good someone get nailed pretty good from the norlun...all we can do is cross fingers I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The funny thing is this: Didn't many people a week ago speculate that this system would be easier for modeling to figure out and totally different vs last one? Well it is different but if anything it appears harder. That said......I agree with messenger......this threat is on life support. The only solace is that run to run consistency is non existent. I think the general pattern is coming into better focus. I definitely feel much more comfortable about this storm than the previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This run is a perfect example of why someone (like Kevin) who's locked in a 4-8" solution based on an inverted trough and an upper level low in a terrible position busts 9 times out of 10. Way too much can go wrong Don't forget Kevin's special juju snow dance to make sure the inv trough sets up right over his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's a bummer that we seem to be converging on solutions away from getting the ULL to dive underneath us and start something fun. It's always really hard to get these polar lows to dive to below our latitude; I feel as if the models tend to overdo these type of solutions and thus create something out of nothing. I seem to remember once during Winter 08-09, the GFS had the PV coming down and creating a full-on blizzard in the medium range, sort of like the ECM from the other day, but the solution ended up being a fairly mundane cold front. This one appears to be the same as we don't really have the digging to get a Nor'easter started and thus the precipitation will probably be relegated to instability snow showers and a few inches from the Norlun. Not very exciting but hopefully it whitens the ground for everyone and gets quickly into the 50/50 position for the Miller A threat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Don't forget Kevin's special juju snow dance to make sure the inv trough sets up right over his head. Hopefully my norlun fetish out-jujus his snow dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This run is a perfect example of why someone (like Kevin) who's locked in a 4-8" solution based on an inverted trough and an upper level low in a terrible position busts 9 times out of 10. Way too much can go wrong LOL, for me the fact that I looked at the GFS yesterday AM and it had moved some features 1000 miles in 12 hours, and to look at the NAM tonight and see it do the same....not that interested in this system yet. The NAM does have moisture re-increasing over us at 84, and it is backign moisture down from Maine at the same time. but let's face it, it blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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