CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes. This. Lol This *1000, but people will always fall in love with a D5 superbomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The vortex is starting to take a pretty steep dive at 48-51 hours...we'll see if it produces something good. There's pretty potent energy comign down the back side of it in MN. It's a pretty incredible amount of energy really. What's really changed here is the earlier NAM snows have goon POOF. That may not be a bad thing if it favors a later hit, we'll see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That energy looks very impressive and starts to dig the trough at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm just a novice at this but a big difference I notice 0z NAM vs 18z NAM at hr 48/54 respectively is the vortex over western canada was closed off from the trough at this same time but it appears open and is dumping energy into the trough. Not sure what if any impact this would have just a difference I saw and was wondering about. (am I reading this right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That energy looks very impressive and starts to dig the trough at hr 54. What's totally different is the energy crashing ashore around 42 is now interacting with the main PV. The NAM never had that previously not sure about other models. May be able to compensate for a late start. EDIT: and we have a triple header as energy is coming west around the main PV. If this doesn't develop into something big I'm going to smash Ray's computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The RSM goes bonkers up here with the sfc trough. It's SREF members probably account for a lot of the juicy QPF up this way. Looks like it screws the NE hills of CT. AWT. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This NAM run is intriguing; much more dynamics pouring into the trough out of Manitoba - better relay off the Pac?? Eh, still looks like bleg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The RSM goes bonkers up here with the sfc trough. It's SREF members probably account for a lot of the juicy QPF up this way. Looks like it screws the NE hills of CT. AWT. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/rsmloop.html Was waiting for you to post that. Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 God, the orientation of the vortex is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Was waiting for you to post that. Kev. Yeah I'm just goofing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's kind of like a firehose of vorticity on the backside of the trough. I think I'd like to see it a little more concentrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This NAM run is intriguing; much more dynamics pouring into the trough out of Manitoba - better relay off the Pac?? Staggering how much it changed even inside of 48 hours but will the net result be a good one or just more or less what the Euro has been showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks to me like that lead SW that is 992 well ESE of the bench mark at hr 60 may well "muck things up"....no?...i'd like to see it 200 miles NE and headed for europe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The RSM goes bonkers up here with the sfc trough. It's SREF members probably account for a lot of the juicy QPF up this way. Looks like it screws the NE hills of CT. AWT. http://www.meteo.psu...0z/rsmloop.html Wow. Would be the biggest storm during my time up here in KLEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Inverted trough action going on by h72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is a weird run. Congrats NYC on the NORLUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The base of this thing it too rounded...nowhere to focus the vorticity....we need it to sharpen near the base to get something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 well the NAM now has that strong storm too out east. not a good sign, muck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This NAM run is intriguing; much more dynamics pouring into the trough out of Manitoba - better relay off the Pac?? From my post above it seemed like that energy go pinched off in Manitoba and "stolen" in the 18z run (not sure about other runs or models) but definitely a major difference this time on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 everything seems 6 hours late.. not sure. but the low has not even formed at 69hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is a weird run. Congrats NYC on the NORLUN. It's gonna shaft us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is a weird run. Congrats NYC on the NORLUN. The craziness continues! The norlun keeps heading southward. I might be enjoying the snow yet--unforutantley It will be when I'm in MD rather than in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is a weird run. Congrats NYC on the NORLUN. I dunno I think something like this is probably the most likely soln that screws most of us while a small area cashes in. Whether that's NYC or PSM I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's a bummer that we seem to be converging on solutions away from getting the ULL to dive underneath us and start something fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's gonna shaft us. The NAM is so wildly different than the earlier run I have a hard time believing any of it. Will await the GFS/GGEM and Dr Evil. This kind of looked like a giant turd to pretty quickly as it's an elongated system SW/NE. Still not convinced we don't pinch off even in this setup, but right now through 72 it's pinching a loaf. We're finding new ways to get screwed, be fun to watch a 300 mile long but 30 mile wide blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I dunno I think something like this is probably the most likely soln that screws most of us while a small area cashes in. Whether that's NYC or PSM I don't know. It was a pretty big change from 18z..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Now it wants to throw in another s/w at hr 78, coming in from OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It was a pretty big change from 18z..lol. It keeps the closed low in sort of the same spot in Michigan. The differences are the shortwaves rounding the base of the trough. At least in a generic sense it's keeping a sort of boring 500mb low position and we're relying on some type of norlun/inverted trough setup. 18z delivered that... 00z doesn't. Nature of the beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So were about 3 days away and pretty much all we can determine is somewhere NYC north will get some snow. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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