Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Because the op run keeps the ULL rotting over us. The ensembles kick it out. Gotcha the Euro OP is a ghost of it's former self, guess it's a neutral Nina only superior model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You might have to ask for a table near a window. If I'm lucky.....few will show up, the restaurant will be happy to have us there....and I can hold court was data streams to my phone.....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 on my way home from portsmouth tonight, I noticed weenies were lining up to jump Off the high rise bridge between portsmouth And kittery. Those that were afraid to jump Had vaseline so the screwing we get won't Hurt to bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 One nice thing about getting older is it seems you need less sleep. 6-7 hrs for me now, 8-10 when I was in my teens.lol True. I get 8 on weekends but depending on weather urgency, anywhere from 4-6/7 during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 True. I get 8 on weekends but depending on weather urgency, anywhere from 4-6/7 during the week. Weekend guy is a stud! Mid week so so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Get to sleep early tonight. Rest up..No reason to stay up for the 00z runs..They'll still be there in the morning You should stay up and join us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 True. I get 8 on weekends but depending on weather urgency, anywhere from 4-6/7 during the week. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The dead period. I think it's kind of cool that collectively we've all figured out at the same time that there's not that much to talk about yet. This isn't like the old days in simpler patterns where a single s/w or two would interact and we could kind of keep tabs on the situation. It doesnt' really matter what one individual component of the soup does at this stage because there's 20 different parts that are all inter-related. I suspect we will have much great clarity tonight than people are expecting. I say this because it was about at this point last time that we got things figured out in terms of norlun goofiness or 1 vs 2 vs 3 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Gotcha the Euro OP is a ghost of it's former self, guess it's a neutral Nina only superior model. It's d8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 0z Init, little west but somewhat weaker with the BC s/w, stronger and somewhat slower with the NM s/w Normally those things would make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think it's kind of cool that collectively we've all figured out at the same time that there's not that much to talk about yet. This isn't like the old days in simpler patterns where a single s/w or two would interact and we could kind of keep tabs on the situation. It doesnt' really matter what one individual component of the soup does at this stage because there's 20 different parts that are all inter-related. I suspect we will have much great clarity tonight than people are expecting. I say this because it was about at this point last time that we got things figured out in terms of norlun goofiness or 1 vs 2 vs 3 storms. Coming out of the dead zone....I agree, I think the puzzle pieces start to come together tonight........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SREF came in more bullish than 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Really disturbing that our short-mid range models cannot even get a 12h position right on a s/w in the US. The southern system has slowed down quite a bit since the 12z run. The 18z made a big adjustment slower and the 0z stayed about the same or is maybe a smidge slower. Goes to show that sometimes the off hours catch trends. The ND system is weaker and probably a little faster although it may just be that it's a little west. The main PV has slowed considerably since the 12z as well. It may all result in a wash later, who knows. EDIT: By 12h, the only real noticeable changes vs 12z. PV is slower coming down. ND s/w is probably weaker and faster southern speedmax is further east in the complex but it's not all that different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 not sure if posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SREF came in more bullish than 15z. Was wondering. I could not discern any difference looking at the 500 and Mean SLP. Can you explain to me the color gradients? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Was wondering. I could not discern any difference looking at the 500 and Mean SLP. Can you explain to me the color gradients? The spread of the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 is there a ton of mixing tommorrow. just trying to figure out how we get point and click highs in the upper 30's.....the first week in january with DM heights around 5180 and 850's -10 C around 19z tommorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's d8 D3 d4 d5 no matter disastah since 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The spread of the members. So what does the bar on the side represent? Specifically on the 500 maps. It goes from 0 to 130. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So what does the bar on the side represent? Specifically on the 500 maps. It goes from 0 to 130. The spread in height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The energy coming down out of Canada around 18-24 west of the main PV is modeled at 0z even more intense than it was at 12z. It's never been this strong on a NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The spread in height. tkx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ridiculous that the 30h 0z NAM forecast does now show some interaction between the southern and diving ND system. Ridiculous because just 12 hours ago they were forecast to be several hundred miles apart. Same west of the western coast of Canada, the changes are kind of sharp for such a short window. There's a ton of energy coming down but so far it looks flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 D3 d4 d5 no matter disastah since 09 I guess. 500/1000mb z scores are still the highest for any model for the NHEM. It's struggled a bit here and there, but all of the models have. I almost feel like there are too many runs of too many models sometimes and that we put too much faith in the d5+ runs. As a result we get flip-flops and we start latching onto possible threats WAY earlier than we used to on these forums. I used to not even look at the threats that far out, but now I'm as guilty as anyone. I still give the EC and the EC ens more weight then anything else even with the occasional hiccup runs lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I guess. 500/1000mb z scores are still the highest for any model for the NHEM. It's struggled a bit here and there, but all of the models have. I almost feel like there are too many runs of too many models sometimes and that we put too much faith in the d5+ runs. As a result we get flip-flops and we start latching onto possible threats WAY earlier than we used to on these forums. I used to not even look at the threats that far out, but now I'm as guilty as anyone. I still give the EC and the EC ens more weight then anything else even with the occasional hiccup runs lately. Yeah we used to barely track anything \until it was inside 96 hours. Now we are tracking them at 7-8 days out and getting fairly invested in them at 120-132 hours which is just way too far out to start getting emotionally invested in a storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SREFs are pretty nice. Not a bad way to start the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I guess. 500/1000mb z scores are still the highest for any model for the NHEM. It's struggled a bit here and there, but all of the models have. I almost feel like there are too many runs of too many models sometimes and that we put too much faith in the d5+ runs. As a result we get flip-flops and we start latching onto possible threats WAY earlier than we used to on these forums. I used to not even look at the threats that far out, but now I'm as guilty as anyone. I still give the EC and the EC ens more weight then anything else even with the occasional hiccup runs lately. Yes. This. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SREFs are pretty nice. Not a bad way to start the 00z suite. The NAM may be coming together for a late hit but it looks ugly to me so far. The trajectory of the approaching energy out of Canada has oriented more to a SE vs SSE on the earlier runs. EDIT: By 42ish...there's a ton of energy there but either that western s/w is going to get pounced on or it's going to really fluck things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The NAM may be coming together for a late hit but it looks ugly to me so far. The trajectory of the approaching energy out of Canada has oriented more to a SE vs SSE on the earlier runs. I think it's early imo, but I think the NAM doesn't look bad. Ridging out west is a little better, and seems like more troughing on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The vortex is starting to take a pretty steep dive at 48-51 hours...we'll see if it produces something good. There's pretty potent energy comign down the back side of it in MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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