Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know I mentioned it before, but even the euro ensembles seem to hint at solutions that might be swfe or cstl huggers as the PV goes west a bit. With the trough that far west, it could be active, but it's possible not everyone has frozen. Overall it looks good with the pattern seemingly active. Active = Good. Troubling however is the1058 HP which could tend to supress or shear out the flow ala Euro OP today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know I mentioned it before, but even the euro ensembles seem to hint at solutions that might be swfe or cstl huggers as the PV goes west a bit. With the trough that far west, it could be active, but it's possible not everyone has frozen. Overall it looks good with the pattern seemingly active. Active = Good. I'd rather have a pattern like that than one that has everything missing us to the east, even if it means some precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Love the raw numbers off the 18Z GFS for around the 20th...... -14F for a low temp for KBDR lol......January 1961 type cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I don't think anyone is, Pete. I fear in your COT zeal, you are underestimating the satisfaction we all will have with any snow. That said, we are all finding it comical (I think) about how every model on every run is showing things differently. Really, it strikes me there are numerous posts scoffing at the prospect of a 1-3", 2-4" snowfall. That and the fact that, despite the models obviously being rather clueless in this regime, some people are quick to pronounce the threat(s) dead. Personally, I find the lack of run to run continuity absolutely fascinating and riveting. I will be the first to admit that I am zealous when it comes to snow but I don't think that clouds my perception of the palpable disappointment and disatisfaction often expressed here for anything less than a HECS. The fact of the matter is the vast majority of the snow that falls in any Winter season comes from the more unremarkable systems. As for the CoT, what a wonderful, organically grown goof. It sure beats the "aw, shucks , guess it's never gonna snow here" (wherever here may be) attitude that many adopt as a coping mechanism. But hey, what do I know, I'm just a ski freak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Troubling however is the1058 HP which could tend to supress or shear out the flow ala Euro OP today. Well a 1058 high east of the Canadian Rockies probably won't do that. The euro op solution today could allow it to shear apart, but that is because the ULL rots over us and keeps the flow zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well a 1058 high east of the Canadian Rockies probably won't do that. The euro op solution today could allow it to shear apart, but that is because the ULL rots over us and keeps the flow zonal. Scot how does the Euro Ens end up with a LP tucked in the SNEcoast when the OP has nothsigh within 1200 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Really, it strikes me there are numerous posts scoffing at the prospect of a 1-3", 2-4" snowfall. That and the fact that, despite the models obviously being rather clueless in this regime, some people are quick to pronounce the threat(s) dead. Personally, I find the lack of run to run continuity absolutely fascinating and riveting. I will be the first to admit that I am zealous when it comes to snow but I don't think that clouds my perception of the palpable disappointment and disatisfaction often expressed here for anything less than a HECS. The fact of the matter is the vast majority of the snow that falls in any Winter season comes from the more unremarkable systems. As for the CoT, what a wonderful, organically grown goof. It sure beats the "aw, shucks , guess it's never gonna snow here" (wherever here may be) attitude that many adopt as a coping mechanism. But hey, what do I know, I'm just a ski freak. We'll call that the Circle of SiGNGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We'll call that the Circle of SiGNGS. LOL. Big snow while you're gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Scot how does the Euro Ens end up with a LP tucked in the SNEcoast when the OP has nothsigh within 1200 miles? euro ensembles in more detail http://www.americanw...post__p__221079 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well a 1058 high east of the Canadian Rockies probably won't do that. The euro op solution today could allow it to shear apart, but that is because the ULL rots over us and keeps the flow zonal. I do not think I have seen this. Look at the hemispheric 240 Euro, HP extends all the way around the globe through east of the divide through South America all the way back to the North Pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 LOL. Big snow while you're gone. In that I trust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Moderate moderate snow coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Worst part of the day is after the 18z GFS... few posts and boredom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Worst part of the day is after the 18z GFS... few posts and boredom The dead period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Worst part of the day is after the 18z GFS... few posts and boredom LES rot for you tonight, coating over bare spots? Put a tarp down before you put up the tent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I do not think I have seen this. Look at the hemispheric 240 Euro, HP extends all the way around the globe through east of the divide through South America all the way back to the North Pole What are you trying to say?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 LES rot for you tonight, coating over bare spots? Put a tarp down before you put up the tent? Lake Effect? It's snow showers with the cold front if they hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Scot how does the Euro Ens end up with a LP tucked in the SNEcoast when the OP has nothsigh within 1200 miles? Because the op run keeps the ULL rotting over us. The ensembles kick it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 What are you trying to say?? That he was looking at the map upside down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Because the op run keeps the ULL rotting over us. The ensembles kick it out. I think there is more concern for the D8 system to track too close than to whiff SE at this time. The Atlantic block is much weaker at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That he was looking at the map upside down Maybe I'm tired, but I wasn't sure if he was busting chops or asking questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The dead period. So true! At least at until 9AM, you often are working and if not...sleeping. Friday night my wife and I are going out to this really nice (overpriced) restaurant that we have $50 gift card for....at least I'll have something to do.....although there is a chance I'll be bouncing off the wall wx wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So true! At least at until 9AM, you often are working and if not...sleeping. Friday night my wife and I are going out to this really nice (overpriced) restaurant that we have $50 gift card for....at least I'll have something to do.....although there is a chance I'll be bouncing off the wall wx wise... You might have to ask for a table near a window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Maybe I'm tired, but I wasn't sure if he was busting chops or asking questions. Get to sleep early tonight. Rest up..No reason to stay up for the 00z runs..They'll still be there in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think there is more concern for the D8 system to track too close than to whiff SE at this time. The Atlantic block is much weaker at that point. Yeah I agree. I don't really buy the euro op. I thought he was trying to say a 1060 high would suppress it, but a high in that position...2000 miles west, won't help suppress it imo. I think we run the risk of having huggers or even swfe, but that doesn't mean they can't be mostly frozen. I just feel, with a trough that far west, it opens up the door for more storms, but it also could mean ptype problems for some. I'm just speculating at this point. I would rather have an active period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Get to sleep early tonight. Rest up..No reason to stay up for the 00z runs..They'll still be there in the morning I'm off tomorrow, so I'll enjoy the time I have to relax at night. I like to stay up late normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What are you trying to say?? Nothing just noticed the HP areas that circle the globe. n to S unbroken all the way around, just a cool spec in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah I agree. I don't really buy the euro op. I thought he was trying to say a 1060 high would suppress it, but a high in that position...2000 miles west, won't help suppress it imo. I think we run the risk of having huggers or even swfe, but that doesn't mean they can't be mostly frozen. I just feel, with a trough that far west, it opens up the door for more storms, but it also could mean ptype problems for some. I'm just speculating at this point. I would rather have an active period. Same here. Huggers are nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm off tomorrow, so I'll enjoy the time I have to relax at night. I like to stay up late normally. One nice thing about getting older is it seems you need less sleep. 6-7 hrs for me now, 8-10 when I was in my teens.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah I agree. I don't really buy the euro op. I thought he was trying to say a 1060 high would suppress it, but a high in that position...2000 miles west, won't help suppress it imo. I think we run the risk of having huggers or even swfe, but that doesn't mean they can't be mostly frozen. I just feel, with a trough that far west, it opens up the door for more storms, but it also could mean ptype problems for some. I'm just speculating at this point. I would rather have an active period. Definitely...I'm all set with 0F temps and dry. Already tried that out 7 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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