40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Don't worry, the H5 calendar reads Feb 6, 1978... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 0.75+ max over central CT at 90 hours. Similiar to the 18z nam which gave BDR 1.1+ liquid all snow. These IVT's wont be forecasted well until gametime. It could set up anywhere from nnj to maine, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We need to either get rid of that front running wave or slow it down big time....its screwing up a lot of these solutions. Which one? That low that develops off the US East Coast or the shortwave that gets into ND in about 12-18 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 big snowstorm coming to SNE ok ignore the euro and gfs Ahhhh gotcha. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good my ride up will not be impeded outside of CT. I see my snow jinx is working. Lol seems like it snows everywhere I'm not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We need to either get rid of that front running wave or slow it down big time....its screwing up a lot of these solutions. I wouldn't be suprised to see tha vanish at the last moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Good my ride up will not be impeded outside of CT. I see my snow jinx is working. Lol seems like it snows everywhere I'm not Weren't you in MD last Feb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Which one? That low that develops off the US East Coast or the shortwave that gets into ND in about 12-18 hours? The one out over the Atlantic at about 60 hours...its hard to say exactly which vortmax is forming it as they become diffuse looking before redeveloping out over the water. Regardless, with so many moving parts, its going to be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We need to either get rid of that front running wave or slow it down big time....its screwing up a lot of these solutions. i think the 18z nam just kept it weak (996vs the gfs consistently stronger solution) i'm just hoping the 0z nam doesn't deepen the first SW to 980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 0.75+ max over central CT at 90 hours. right over my snowboard, its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 That SE to NW pointing blue thing needs to be circumcised and be done with it. Anyone here a Moel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Man the GFS continues giving CT 6-12 from the Norlun run after run..Why does it have to be this crap model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Man the GFS continues giving CT 6-12 from the Norlun run after run..Why does it to be this crap model? You mean the model that schooled all the others last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 i think the 18z nam just kept it weak (996vs the gfs consistently stronger solution) i'm just hoping the 0z nam doesn't deepen the first SW to 980 Yeah the NAM keeps it more strung out and then let it escape east enough so that it doesn't interfer too much with the main show diving in from the lakes...so we end up seeing a big solution on the NAM and the ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We need to either get rid of that front running wave or slow it down big time....its screwing up a lot of these solutions. Yep....really porking us all around on the GFS. I can't see it going a ton faster, we need it to be slower/stronger I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We need to either get rid of that front running wave or slow it down big time....its screwing up a lot of these solutions. Yeah it retrogrades right back at ME at 980...12z it just scooted progressively on along. There's going to be a lot of frustrating model runs over the next 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 You mean the model that schooled all the others last week? I non violently disagree..It was the first to catch onto the closer in storm after the NCEP coverup...but it didn't perform any better before that. As soon as it came west..so did every other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yep....really porking us all around on the GFS. I can't see it going a ton faster, we need it to be slower/stronger I think. Not all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I non violently disagree..It was the first to catch onto the closer in storm after the NCEP coverup...but it didn't perform any better before that. As soon as it came wes..so did every other model Not true. The GFS was on its own for a while... I think it performed quite well within the 72-96 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Man the GFS continues giving CT 6-12 from the Norlun run after run..Why does it have to be this crap model? It was giving me like 15-20" for a few runs......I still say that foolish thing is not going to pan out (I know it's physically possible, Will).....the storm is either going to happen or it won't......any inverted trough is only going to drop a light snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 It was giving me like 15-20" for a few runs......I still say that foolish thing is not going to pan out (I know it's physically possible, Will).....the storm is either going to happen or it won't......any inverted trough is only going to drop a light snowfall. See HM's post today about norlun troughs and heavy snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think people are confusing what I just said, I did not mean that there will likely be a snowstorm, I am just saying that with the models confused in their solutions I doubt it verifies with this solution at the end. I mean we have about 72 more hours to go before the snow starts. So therefore the models are going to continue to struggle with the various moving parts involved. I mean look at the individual GEFS members for the 12z run, is there any consistency in their solutions? I mean two days ago models showed a snowstorm. Why can't they show the snowstorm within the next two days? Easy said then done, but give the models some more time before catching onto one solution. There are many out there in the models, we need to use caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I non violently disagree..It was the first to catch onto the closer in storm after the NCEP coverup...but it didn't perform any better before that. As soon as it came west..so did every other model The GFS probably did better with the last storm than any other model, especially inside probably 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The 18z NOGAPS slides the leading edge under us and then the whole vortex joins it and gives E MA a HECS, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not all of us We'll be able to start a CT obs thread in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Halifax is looking like pretty in the GFS. If any model is able to accurately pick out the location of the Norlun feature this far out, I would be amazed. Nobody in SNE should give up at this point, especially Cape Cod to Cape Ann. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The one out over the Atlantic at about 60 hours...its hard to say exactly which vortmax is forming it as they become diffuse looking before redeveloping out over the water. Regardless, with so many moving parts, its going to be a nightmare. Do you mean to actually turn it into a real storm again or forecast until then? Or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Not true. The GFS was on its own for a while... I think it performed quite well within the 72-96 hour period. I don't agree at all. On it's own? I don't think you'll get anyone to agree with that..That's why the NCEP/HPC coverup was issued becasue it was so far west they thought it was init errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Yeah the NAM keeps it more strung out and then let it escape east enough so that it doesn't interfer too much with the main show diving in from the lakes...so we end up seeing a big solution on the NAM and the ETA. How did the euro handle it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We'll be able to start a CT obs thread in a few days. Free weenies at my place if we break 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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