CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The door is open for a better solution. If it's only a few inches..well, not every storm is a foot plus. It probably won't be until 00z Thursday until we get a better idea. I thought yesterday it may take a few days, and indeed it probably will with such a complicated setup. Just remember the blow torch forecasts that people were going for. This is a bonus for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Who cares if this storm brings advisory amounts. Take it and run. We'll have more chances. Exactly my thoughts scott. The last storm will obviously be remembered around here for the flooding and the wind. Like I said we got maybe 5-6 inches of slop when the dust settled, so nothing great in regard to the snow aspect. But yeah I would take 3-6 or somthing like that and run with this event. In my mind its all about nickle and diming your way to a good winter, if you get a snowy monster or two then great sit back and enjoy. I mean I thought winter was suppose to end shortly after christmas LOL. Anyway looks like we will have some cold and some chances at snow in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The door is open for a better solution. If it's only a few inches..well, not every storm is a foot plus. It probably won't be until 00z Thursday until we get a better idea. I thought yesterday it may take a few days, and indeed it probably will with such a complicated setup. Just remember the blow torch forecasts that people were going for. This is a bonus for all. A 4-8" deal works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The door is open for a better solution. If it's only a few inches..well, not every storm is a foot plus. It probably won't be until 00z Thursday until we get a better idea. I thought yesterday it may take a few days, and indeed it probably will with such a complicated setup. Just remember the blow torch forecasts that people were going for. This is a bonus for all. I had said i thought we'd have clarity by last night at the latest. of course you were right. lets hope it starts to shift in a better direction once the shortwaves are onshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Bottomline is this..the entirety of SNE sees accumulating snow out of this whole deal. Whether it s2-4 or 6-12 we don't know..but at this point it's gonna snow and the details will reveal their hands in the coming 24-48 hours. Until then keep your weenies close to the vest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The door is open for a better solution. If it's only a few inches..well, not every storm is a foot plus. It probably won't be until 00z Thursday until we get a better idea. I thought yesterday it may take a few days, and indeed it probably will with such a complicated setup. Just remember the blow torch forecasts that people were going for. This is a bonus for all. I think we have to consider that the models didn't nail the last storm until 48 hours out besides thr gfs, and that was a relatively easy setup.. this one has like 9 lows and 27 s/w's roaming around like sharks.. we still have 2 full days of model watching 5TH and last post for me... Gfs is still king of pattern as of now.. I say we stick with it until it fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think we have to consider that the models didn't nail the last storm until 48 hours out besides thr gfs, and that was a relatively easy setup.. this one has like 9 lows and 27 s/w's roaming around like sharks.. we still have 2 full days of model watching 5TH and last post for me... Gfs is still king of pattern as of now.. I say we stick with it until it fails Self imposed? Crazy maps out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think we have to consider that the models didn't nail the last storm until 48 hours out besides thr gfs, and that was a relatively easy setup.. this one has like 9 lows and 27 s/w's roaming around like sharks.. we still have 2 full days of model watching 5TH and last post for me... Gfs is still king of pattern as of now.. I say we stick with it until it fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We'll have our chances..lol. No need to go rafters yet. It's 84+ hours out, so I think there is room for improvement. Could it be a 1-3" fluff job?? Sure, but given how every model has changed its tune on virtually every run, I'm not sure we can just assume we only need the broom for this one. Come on - poke the hornet's nest with me. lol - suspect Kevin is in T-minus 2:34:67 and counting away from an utter implosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Self imposed? Crazy maps out there. No, he's been restricted. See at left in profile box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 We'll have our chances..lol. No need to go rafters yet. It's 84+ hours out, so I think there is room for improvement. Could it be a 1-3" fluff job?? Sure, but given how every model has changed its tune on virtually every run, I'm not sure we can just assume we only need the broom for this one. this has been the theme this year. with the multiple shortwaves their strength timing and phasing/not phasing issues it seems models can ONLY generally latch on to time and "potential" of an event. BUT NOT even close to the details...i.e track...R/S line Qpf etc.....so hanging on each model run outside 72 hours seems pointless to me. Then it seems around 60 hours out as the shortwaves (multiple) are able to be handled better ......models come around with the nam and/or gfs leading the way. blocking FTL with the euro? I like the nam and then the gfs to lead the way in this pattern FTW. I really think the nam is the model to watch over the next day or so. but then again i'm just a weenie (and the nam has the best 5H so i am told.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 this has been the theme this year. with the multiple shortwaves their strength timing and phasing/not phasing issues it seems models can ONLY generally latch on to time and "potential" of an event. BUT NOT even close to the details...i.e track...R/S line Qpf etc.....so hanging on each model run outside 72 hours seems pointless to me. Then it seems around 60 hours out as the shortwaves (multiple) are able to be handled better ......models come around with the nam and/or gfs leading the way. blocking FTL with the euro? I like the nam and then the gfs to lead the way in this pattern FTW. I really think the nam is the model to watch over the next day or so. but then again i'm just a weenie (and the nam has the best 5H so i am told.) I can hear Loretta Lynn belting out...."STAND BY YOUR WEENIE...." and the grand finale....'STAND....................BY.....................YOUR .......WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEENIEEEEEEE!" Reflecting from " 'cause after all...he's just a weenie....." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Awesome... 2-4"!!! Sign me up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 A lot of spread still on the 15z SREFs, but some nice hits in there for ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't like the trend of the leading vortmax to get strung out and then cutoff from the main vortex...its letting a stronger low run away form us. Who knows if that will continue to be the case on future runs as the setup is so delicate, but its something we should be watching over the next 24 hours...root for it not to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The door is open for a better solution. If it's only a few inches..well, not every storm is a foot plus. It probably won't be until 00z Thursday until we get a better idea. I thought yesterday it may take a few days, and indeed it probably will with such a complicated setup. Just remember the blow torch forecasts that people were going for. This is a bonus for all. Door is open for a total miss too. I think we'll have a much clearer picture after the 0z tonight as we'll have the benefit of two more runs. One of the critical s/ws in this whole process is north of MT and will be into ND by morning. That rotates all the way around and eventually kicks off storm two which IMO we need to slow down 12-18 hours. If you follow through on the GFS that energy eventually does get capture and spins just off our coast into the Gulf of Maine. Slow it down 12 hours and it might get interesting with the intermediate low wrapping moisture back in while we await the bigger dog. If the timing stays nearly the same....oh well, three cooks in the kitchen is too many and we may manage to miss three "storms" in just a few days. JMHO I think it will mostly ride on what happens with the ND s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 I reiterate..for those doubting it's gonna snow substntially see HM and Donny S's posts I posted earlier/or on the main wx page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The 12z NAM is intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 accuweather gives 16.5" of snow I am assuming these number are from last nights oz run!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The 12z NAM is intriguing 18z NAM is interesting too. We aren't going to miss a nice setup by much with the "first" set of systems. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 18z NAM is interesting too. We aren't going to miss a nice setup by much with the "first" set of systems. Frustrating. 18z NAM extrapolates to a snowbomb I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Persistent little bugger the ETA has been. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAEAST_18z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 OH MY GOD, the 18z NAM is stronger with the intermediate stream short wave passing through Britt Columbia, as well as slightly farther west with the western end of the SPV.... what the means i have no f clue but oh my god - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Anyone have a read on the Euro Ensembles yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The euro ensembles look like the op run..maybe a little nw of the op by hr 96. They look good for the d8 storm fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 OH MY GOD, the 18z NAM is stronger with the intermediate stream short wave passing through Britt Columbia, as well as slightly farther west with the western end of the SPV.... what the means i have no f clue but oh my god - LOL (that's why i promise i will never post until the run is thru and then very sporadically) i think the euro ens are out in about 13 mintues (to next poster) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't like the trend of the leading vortmax to get strung out and then cutoff from the main vortex...its letting a stronger low run away form us. Who knows if that will continue to be the case on future runs as the setup is so delicate, but its something we should be watching over the next 24 hours...root for it not to do that. Models started to do that last night. That's the biggest problem right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The euro ensembles look like the op run..maybe a little nw of the op by hr 96. They look good for the d8 storm fwiw. Yeah...not bad. Some snow for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 18z NAM extrapolates to a snowbomb I think Yes, I think it looks like every blizzard to hit the east coast since the 1700's. If we can speed up the s/ws, strengthen them, and move them by hundreds of miles we're in the money. Hang on, we should know by Sunday. OH MY GOD, the 18z NAM is stronger with the intermediate stream short wave passing through Britt Columbia, as well as slightly farther west with the western end of the SPV.... what the means i have no f clue but oh my god - And they all teleconnect in a way very similar to the great blizzard of 1888. My Great Uncle Willard Scott still has the charts posted on the back of his toilet seat. I'd get out the KY and start lubing the shovels. -- The other option is that we develop a stronger system 2 FTW. Or we can just b**ch about the 120h forecast not working out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madroch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 OH MY GOD, the 18z NAM is stronger with the intermediate stream short wave passing through Britt Columbia, as well as slightly farther west with the western end of the SPV.... what the means i have no f clue but oh my god - Funny enough, considering the fine quality of the source, to warrant my first post..... Potential 5 post limit be d@@med. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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