CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 GFS looks like it's ready to dig that vortlobe better than any run since 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 3:56 PM, CoastalWx said: The NAM is doing what exactly what I referred to last night with the OES thing. That'll get the party started before the main show comes...IF the NAM is right. NAM looks like a powderkeg after hr 84. You nailed it, for sure, great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 3:53 PM, CT Blibut I dizz said: Sake Superior is the best out there! All the great Sushi houses have it...but I digress. Back to the H5 analysis. At 54 the elongated? spv is rotating se now over superior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 3:58 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS looks like it's ready to dig that vortlobe better than any run since 00z. That sounds like dirty talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 3:56 PM, CoastalWx said: The NAM is doing what exactly what I referred to last night with the OES thing. That'll get the party started before the main show comes...IF the NAM is right. NAM looks like a powderkeg after hr 84. At 72, It looks like it still wants to develop a trough with that 1st piece that is escaping back thru SW ME.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The gfs develops a modest low and runs it out well east of the BM. That's def going to throw things off a little, but not sure of the strength is reasonable given upper level support?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Boy this is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 3:59 PM, Kbosch said: You nailed it, for sure, great job. LOL, well there was nothing to "nail", I was just mentioning it because it may be a decent appetizer before any main course. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 4:00 PM, CoastalWx said: The gfs develops a modest low and runs it out well east of the BM. That's def going to throw things off a little, but not sure of the strength is reasonable given upper level support?? That's been modeled. I'd like to see it continue to be a modest low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 4:00 PM, CoastalWx said: The gfs develops a modest low and runs it out well east of the BM. That's def going to throw things off a little, but not sure of the strength is reasonable given upper level support?? I think the NAM was even stronger with that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 lobe into lower michigan and WOW does that upper low swing towards negative between 60 and 66. toggle that stuff and checkitout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like it's gonna pull a 06z and get CT with snow first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 trend has been to shift the inverted trough SW. Big NNE is looking less likely, while SNE and maybe CNE are targetted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 4:02 PM, dendrite said: I think the NAM was even stronger with that low. I don't think it has a huge outcome to the sensible wx, but obviously we don't want it strong. I'd prefer it to not be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 only loioking at H5. peeked athe surface and something swing e through kentucky tennesse at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 4:05 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't think it has a huge outcome to the sensible wx, but obviously we don't want it strong. I'd prefer it to not be there. I've gone from jackpot to negligible snows so I need some monkeywrenches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What an abomination considering the possibilities. Still not a done deal for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 4:06 PM, dendrite said: I've gone from jackpot to negligible snows so I need some monkeywrenches. Well the gfs doesn't give me much love either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 4:04 PM, wxwatcher91 said: trend has been to shift the inverted trough SW. Big NNE is looking less likely, while SNE and maybe CNE are targetted I posted that earlier and they ripped me apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 It looks like the initial energy shortwave is weaker on the 12z GFS than 12z NAM at hour 72 and therefore the SPV is further to the northeast rather than further southwest or west. I think we may be seeing the progressive bias in the GFS playing out still at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The ULL is getting stretched out too much. It needs to tighten and concentrate the vortmax closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 4:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Looks like it's gonna pull a 06z and get CT with snow first. Yeah Friday looks snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 4:02 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL, well there was nothing to "nail", I was just mentioning it because it may be a decent appetizer before any main course. Maybe. But with the way the upper levels look I think that's it exactly...a tasty appetizer before a big meal for someone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I don't think the surface looks good at 84. intense low we se of ne and don't see a low forming in closer. looked like a capture about to happen at 78. what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 LOL at CT getting it repeatedly on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 4:08 PM, CT Blizz said: Yeah Friday looks snowy Mt. Tolland might get more snow than anyone in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 On 1/4/2011 at 3:33 PM, mahk_webstah said: Lets test this.... 4 inches over 30 hours is that good? 3 inches over 36 hours? is that good? 2 inches over 48 hours? Have you reached your breaking point yet? lol i agree 100pct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 This run blows f unless a jackpot of 4-6 in parts of CT and eastern NY State from inverted trof are what you want. BOS maybe an inch or 2 if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I like the trend at 500mb bring the PV further south...almost there...just not quite enough. It's still out at the 90-110 hour range...and the changes that are needed are subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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