HoCoSnowBo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 "Wednesday and Thursday, the models were going to a major storm hitting the Eastern part of the country, but something happened with the runs Thursday Night and Friday. Suddenly, and for no apparent reason, the models went from a storm going up the Appalachians to a storm going well off the coast. We all know, the winter has been one with failing models, but we all know, the models have always trended west, not east which made me wonder what happened. My theory is, Mt Redoubt had caused the problem. Thursday afternoon, a NOTAM was issued restricted flights around Mt Redoubt which is an active volcano about to blow. 20 Years ago when the volcano blew, a 747 lost it's engines flying into the ash cloud. You can read the story below. Now you need to understand that aircraft provide weather information along flight route called Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System or ACARS. That information goes into the computer models to help understand the weather aloft. The Mt Redoubt sits right along the Asian flight path between US and Europe flights. So information collected along that flight path will end up in the models. This is where things get interesting. It just so happens that the jet stream energy which will eventually produce the storm in the East is coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. When the NOTAM was issued Thursday, most likely, flights were diverted around the Volcano, thus critical weather information from that area that goes into the models was missing, which would explain the sudden change. This is why I think now we will see the models go back to some western solution as the energy moves into western Canada and can be better defined by upper air measurements through soundings and ACARS. It's an interesting theory of mine and some might argue is bogus, but it's the only thing that I can think of that happened Thursday to change the models." What are your thoughts? am19psu EDIT: This is the link to the story - http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/18068/theory-on-why-models-made-big-shift-in-storm.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vogelhund Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Old News. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 please define whether this is HM or Henry Margusity as they are 2 different people........thanks just saw ampsu edit the article link to accuweather......so thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Old news yeah, but just thought i would throw it out there because it could be a major reason the models have been such a failure this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Old news yeah, but just thought i would throw it out there because it could be a major reason the models have been such a failure this year. That would only be the case if critical data-collection regions had been closed off all this time. They haven't. The airspace restrictions were only in place for a relatively short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Old news yeah, but just thought i would throw it out there because it could be a major reason the models have been such a failure this year. That would only be the case if critical data-collection regions had been closed off all this time. They haven't. The airspace restrictions were only in place for a relatively short period of time. ...not to mention that models were at a record high verification for 2010... unless that by this year he meant this past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vogelhund Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The Volcano is no longer erupting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stellarfun Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Henry M. doesn't know his aircraft systems. ACARS is not the main means of capturing and routinely reporting enroute weather; it is primarily used to alert the destination airport / airline maintenance base of potential issues or problems with the operation of one or more of a plane's components, systems, etc. It can also be used as an uplink from dispatch on enroute weather conditions (e.g., issuance of SIGMETS). The enroute reporting of weather is primarily done through AMDAR. Not all planes are equipped with AMDAR. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_Meteorological_Data_Relay I believe AMDAR data is fed directly to meteorological entities; ACARS data would not be, as the information is often proprietary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I think the point is that the failure to capture a small amount of data can have very large consequences on a model's prediction. Perhaps the unspoken analogy is lack of flights due to volcano eruption = lack of flights due to European snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Henry M. doesn't know his aircraft systems. ACARS is not the main means of capturing and routinely reporting enroute weather; it is primarily used to alert the destination airport / airline maintenance base of potential issues or problems with the operation of one or more of a plane's components, systems, etc. It can also be used as an uplink from dispatch on enroute weather conditions (e.g., issuance of SIGMETS). The enroute reporting of weather is primarily done through AMDAR. Not all planes are equipped with AMDAR. http://en.wikipedia....ical_Data_Relay I believe AMDAR data is fed directly to meteorological entities; ACARS data would not be, as the information is often proprietary. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The next day he wrote( WELL MODELS GO BACK OUT OT SEA... I am about as confused with this storm then I have ever been. So no snow map. The latest models now have the storm out to sea, so what's the next run going to show...I have no idea... Time for the Super Bowl...) I had a feeling people would not be happy with that post and sure enough, the following day he announced that he would be taking a break from the weather and claimed that he had recieved vulgar emails and threats. Crazy storm, crazy times. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saggy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The next day he wrote( WELL MODELS GO BACK OUT OT SEA... I am about as confused with this storm then I have ever been. So no snow map. The latest models now have the storm out to sea, so what's the next run going to show...I have no idea... Time for the Super Bowl...) I had a feeling people would not be happy with that post and sure enough, the following day he announced that he would be taking a break from the weather and claimed that he had recieved vulgar emails and threats. Crazy storm, crazy times. . The real HM.. I'd follow off a weather cliff. I've seen that guy predict a monthly winter temp anomaly that verified so true you could measure it in feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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