Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like next weekend's event will probaby come in two pieces. A front and then a southern storm along it. Hopefully the front goes through first a decent period of time in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 from the old thread: Is it just me, or does it seem odd that the models show the 500mb wave coming out of the Pacific Northwest not having any real connection to the Gulf-Coast runner... and the models show the energy rolling zonally across the central Plains and into the Mid-Atlantic... but instead of a sfc low in the Ohio Valley and then perhaps a second coastal low forming near Chesapeake Bay, they keep bringing the sfc low that tracks along the Gulf Coast and draw it in north like a magnet? good inquiry.. bringing forward here so maybe it can be addressed. to me it seems it wants to try to get a surface reflection going but maybe the fact that it cant amplify is the issue. it does definitely try to tug on the se u.s. slp to bring it north eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Any word on the Euro ensembles? not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 not out yet What time do they usually roll, Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 217 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --HIPRES RMNS OVHD SUN NGT/MON...ITS ARCTIC ORIGINS HELPG KEEP TEMPS BELOW NRML. LOWS AGAIN IN TEENS SUN NGT MANY AREAS...THO A BIT LIGHTER WINDS SHUD KEEP WIND CHILLS FROM DIPPING BELOW ZERO EVEN IN NW CWA. WITH H8 TEMPS BELOW -5C MON...MAXIMA STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOUT FRZG THRU THE RGN. CLR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BCM OVC MON AFTN/EVE AS LOPRES ACRS DEEP SOUTH BRINGS MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE TO MID-ATLC. SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS QUITE COMPLICATED FOR MON NGT INTO WED. STRONG SHRTWV TROF BENEATH SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS SUN ACRS TX...WITH LOPRES RIDING ALONG NRN GULF COAST SUN NGT/MON. THIS SFC LOW SHUD CROSS INTO ATLC OFF GA/FL COAST ON MON AS IT WEAKENS DUE TO LIFTING OF SHRTWV TROF NWD TWD POLAR JET. AT SAME TIME...POTENT VORTICITY MAX IN POLAR JET CROSSES CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO OH VLY. SFC CYCLONE ALONG SE US COAST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL THIS NRN JET ENERGY CAN DRAW CLOSER TO IT...THUS THE LOCATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE CRITICAL IN HOW MUCH SNOW FALL ACRS MID-ATLC...AND MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ATTM. CURRENT FORECAST IS REFLECTIVE OF AFOREMENTIONED NRN BRANCH ENERGY AND SRN COASTAL LOW NOT GETTING TO COMPLETELY PHASE UNTIL PASSING N/E OF MID-ATLC. THIS SOLUTION WILL STILL PROVIDE LIKELY SN ACRS THE RGN BEGINNING MONDAY NGT...AS ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD NWD FOR THE SW IN ASSOCIATION OF FLATTENING SRN JET SHRTWV TROF. BEST CHC OF SN APPEARS TO BE TUE...AS EVEN WITHOUT COASTAL LOPRES STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENUF TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO RGN...AS WILL THE NRN DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES NEAR NEAR AREA TUE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY AREA OF SFC LOPRES DVLPG OVR CNTRL APLCNS BEFORE MOVING N OF RGN...WITH ITS OWN AREA OF ENHANCED QPF. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE DEPICTED AREAWIDE. ALSO WORTH A MENTION IS POSSIBILITY THAT ENUF WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN N/E FROM ATLC THAT SOME PRECIP MAY BCM MIXED WITH RN ACRS LWR SRN MD. ALL-IN-ALL...CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW DURG THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THO CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like next weekend's event will probaby come in two pieces. A front and then a southern storm along it. Hopefully the front goes through first a decent period of time in advance. Can we please stop posting stuff about the next weekend possible event, this is for the "Tuesday Snow Threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 from the old thread: good inquiry.. bringing forward here so maybe it can be addressed. to me it seems it wants to try to get a surface reflection going but maybe the fact that it cant amplify is the issue. it does definitely try to tug on the se u.s. slp to bring it north eventually Take a look at the 300 mb chart; really powerful jet streak but its axis doesn't "back". In other words, it retains that W - E orientation. I would think that for a storm to pop, you would need some vorticity and change of orientation at 300. Also, we do get a weak low at 850 in our area, but without the return flow out of the east as Wes has suggested in the past. So no entrainment of Atlantic moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What time do they usually roll, Ian? Soon.. Starts in like 10 min so should be out in 20-30 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Can we please stop posting stuff about the next weekend possible event, this is for the "Tuesday Snow Threat" Yeah now that it's just a thread for the Tuesday threat we should stop with the future stuff. However, before (to be fair) the thread did say "Jan 11-31" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not to go off topic, but you may want to turn in to CNN for some very bad news.... AZ is like a third world country these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 From Ian in the other thread: "more often than not we get less snow than expected i think.. save last yr i guess. i mean shoot there are some people north of here who might have expected like an additional 14" of snow this yr based on WSW and WWA alone. " But on a positive note, of the 3 times I've had forecasted snow this year, 2 have overperformed. Maybe the next one will as well. Question for someone: When models aren't showing what we want, many go to the "won't be sampled properly until" fallback position. But this time, we seem pretty confident of something, just don't know what. My question, when will the players all be on the field? I was reading somewhere here that the southern piece is still in NW Mexico, which the poster said was a very poor data area, and the northern piece was in western Canada, which they said wasn't sampled very well either. So, when, and, would we be shocked at some wild change at the time the data was better sampled? Maybe much better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 AZ is like a third world country these days. what are you kidding??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 oh boy, new SREF run want to make the OV Low the dominant one this has got to be wrong; only out to 75 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Around here 3-6" is a significant storm Especially this year. Semantics. I'd refer to a 3-6" event as a snowfall, especially if it comes without wind and/or real cold. The latter would be a "storm" in my eyes. And, for me, it doesn't matter what climo dictates - relativity has nothing to do with it. And before anyone decides to jump on my back, I'm not complaining. Just stating my take on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 From Ian in the other thread: "more often than not we get less snow than expected i think.. save last yr i guess. i mean shoot there are some people north of here who might have expected like an additional 14" of snow this yr based on WSW and WWA alone. " But on a positive note, of the 3 times I've had forecasted snow this year, 2 have overperformed. Maybe the next one will as well. Question for someone: When models aren't showing what we want, many go to the "won't be sampled properly until" fallback position. But this time, we seem pretty confident of something, just don't know what. My question, when will the players all be on the field? I was reading somewhere here that the southern piece is still in NW Mexico, which the poster said was a very poor data area, and the northern piece was in western Canada, which they said wasn't sampled very well either. So, when, and, would we be shocked at some wild change at the time the data was better sampled? Maybe much better? They may be sampled relatively well now though there are always uncertainties about vortices over the northeast and little spokes swing around them. Even if the models had identical initial analysis and data assimulation methods. there still could be signficant differences at times depending on how the various models handle various parameterization schemes for the boundary layer, convection, cloud physics and radiation and probably a couple more that I left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 new SREF has the 5H Low pretty N into Central OH and brings the 0-50 line up to near Wes' house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 new SREF has the 5H Low pretty N into Central OH and brings the 0-50 line up to near Wes' house 0-50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0-50? sorry, 850-0 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 but don;t worry, our friends in NE get clobbered by the SREF as it transfer energy to the Low offshore once to our north look, I'm just posting this; I'm not saying its right for BWI, SREF has stunk in every event this year but 12/16 it did OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 don southerland said it would be a southern new england winter. It sure looks to be verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 but don;t worry, our friends in NE get clobbered by the SREF as it transfer energy to the Low offshore once to our north look, I'm just posting this; I'm not saying its right for BWI, SREF has stunk in every event this year but 12/16 it did OK Whew, they certainly are snow starved.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 but don;t worry, our friends in NE get clobbered by the SREF as it transfer energy to the Low offshore once to our north look, I'm just posting this; I'm not saying its right for BWI, SREF has stunk in every event this year but 12/16 it did OK It is the NAM scenario taken to the extreme. Just another camp to look at. We are in the Euro money range so ride it until it throws you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 don southerland said it would be a southern new england winter. It sure looks to be verifying. Is that a joke? I have about the same amount of snowfall for this season as a lot of people in the NNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 don southerland said it would be a southern new england winter. It sure looks to be verifying. Did he also call for southern Virginia winter, because that sure is verifying too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You're forgetting the northern Alabama winter too.... Did he also call for southern Virginia winter, because that sure is verifying too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is that a joke? I have about the same amount of snowfall for this season as a lot of people in the NNE thread. no that is not a joke. He made that statement a couple of months ago. I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OTS. This storm really goes both to our NW and to our SE. State College PA will get 10"(Yes I was there for 5 years and I'm going against models.) " NYC will get 10" NrN Georgia may get 10". We will get 4-6" and the dryslot. 850MB and 700MB close off too far noprth for us, this is a classic too DC dryslot Miller B. Hopefully iut won't be as bad as 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What is the timing for the snow event early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You're forgetting the northern Alabama winter too.... And Iowa and Minnesota. Just about every location in the country is above average snowfall aside from the dca/bwi region, and even we are very close to average I believe so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Did he also call for southern Virginia winter, because that sure is verifying too. well I guess your getting hit and so is above 40n . Midatlantic getting the shaft so far, I,m willing to bet euro changes its tune tonight also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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