winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i dont think that's fully accurate even if some stations have more. it's pretty much the same but the qpf shield is slightly east here on the whole, slightly west down south in va though. run to run it's basically the same output.looking at hundredths of qpf is useless imo. Isn't it unwise to look for models that are generous with qpf this far ahead of the event? The pesimistic part of me likes to see when GFS cuts off the moisture/precip. At the surface it cuts off by 12Z on Wednesday. Knowing the system will be a fast mover with the 500 mb weakening as it cross the Apps. and knowing that the initial slug of moisture will be lost to virga and the tail end will be lost to downsloping, how much snow will be realized on the ground in DC? YIKES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 In general the guidance seems to support a 2-4 or 3-5 inch 1st guess. I suspect that the gfs will trend towards the euro but this year, the models have tended to flop around even at this time range. i havent seen much yet to change thoughts in that range... the euro would be more or at the high end at least. i cant yet treat the gfs like the nogaps and throw it out instantly though so caution is probably wise still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Thanks mitchnick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like Euro has the front type system coming through around Day 8 based on Day 7 maps off Plymouth Day 7 is cold enough, but don't know about Day 8 http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest here's a better map with 850 winds too looks like Euro brings in the cold front and it does NOT warm up like last night's run, at least I don;t think based on Day 7 map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=7day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 180 snow into va with a low north of the lakes lol. cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Thanks mitchnick! now just be sure to send us some damn snow and quit hogging it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think Jason is still going to play the pops and snowfall pretty conservatively. Understandable with the 12z GFS showing what it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Isn't it unwise to look for models that are generous with qpf this far ahead of the event? The pesimistic part of me likes to see when GFS cuts off the moisture/precip. At the surface it cuts off by 12Z on Wednesday. Knowing the system will be a fast mover with the 500 mb weakening as it cross the Apps. and knowing that the initial slug of moisture will be lost to virga and the tail end will be lost to downsloping, how much snow will be realized on the ground in DC? YIKES! more often than not we get less snow than expected i think.. save last yr i guess. i mean shoot there are some people north of here who might have expected like an additional 14" of snow this yr based on WSW and WWA alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 180 snow into va with a low north of the lakes lol. cold front how about up here? how much qpf for Philly, I mean DCA/BWI? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i havent seen much yet to change thoughts in that range... the euro would be more or at the high end at least. i cant yet treat the gfs like the nogaps and throw it out instantly though so caution is probably wise still. You'd almost have to break it up in 3 zones with DC proper and immed burbs at 2-4, (example) and less out JI's wasy and more east towards Annapolis. I guess the good thing is that a less amped system will keep our 850's cool enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 how about up here? how much qpf for Philly, I mean DCA/BWI? thanks just a cold front 0.10-0.25 surface a little warm not much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 just a cold front 0.10-0.25 surface a little warm not much though tanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 tanks! lol...this year .10 to .25 is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You'd almost have to break it up in 3 zones with DC proper and immed burbs at 2-4, (example) and less out JI's wasy and more east towards Annapolis. I guess the good thing is that a less amped system will keep our 850's cool enough. Yeah probably on the differing areas of accum. More east/northeast is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 more often than not we get less snow than expected i think.. save last yr i guess. i mean shoot there are some people north of here who might have expected like an additional 14" of snow this yr based on WSW and WWA alone. I guess, 48 hrs. out from the event, you can take the weighted average of the GFS/Euro/SREF ensembles and blend the resultant with Wes' hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 mitch double check ric dt says 0.67" here and the 0.50 line went way west to farmville curious to kfvx total because that is where the 0.50 line went to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 mitch double check ric dt says 0.67" here and the 0.50 line went way west to farmville curious to kfvx total because that is where the 0.50 line went to DT erred .46 ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DT erred .46 ric Start a new thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Start a new thread Go ahead dude...I'll pass the baton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlady Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is it just me, or does it seem odd that the models show the 500mb wave coming out of the Pacific Northwest not having any real connection to the Gulf-Coast runner... and the models show the energy rolling zonally across the central Plains and into the Mid-Atlantic... but instead of a sfc low in the Ohio Valley and then perhaps a second coastal low forming near Chesapeake Bay, they keep bringing the sfc low that tracks along the Gulf Coast and draw it in north like a magnet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Post here about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Start a new thread I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 My 1/4" of "Snow Pack" is holding strong here in Towson, MD. Would be nice to see enough snow to cover the grass at least once before spring. I'll be looking forward to the 00Zs. That's about all i have to say in my meaningless post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What if it starts on Monday? Can 3" really be considered a threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What if it starts on Monday? Can 3" really be considered a threat? Threat of snowfall, I guess. I really wouldn't refer to it as a "storm" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What storm? The NJ/SNE KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Threat of snowfall, I guess. I really wouldn't refer to it as a "storm" though. Around here 3-6" is a significant storm Especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Around here 3-6" is a significant storm Especially this year. Well...isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Any word on the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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