Amped Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Closed 500mb low running us over is a good sign. However it appeasrs the sharper more amplified troff we were all hoping for isn,t gonna verrify, So this storm will probably be a quickie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dover gets crushed again with .74" we're never gonna' beat them this year, never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 barcolinic guy says tonight will have the most dramatic changes at 00z..for the better or for the worse....but its good that the EURO remained stubborn. 1 inch felt like alot to me today lol...cant imagine 4 New redtagger: barcolinic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 CHO-.31" WESTMINSTER-.52" ANNAPOLIS-.57" what airport code are you using for westmister? I use municipal apt dmw and it gives me .46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I love your PBP but for future reference since it seems to be used a lot, what do you consider "central VA"? Are we talking Richmond area east or when you say central VA does that imply from richmond to LHY and CHO? farmville to ric to asland to south east of cho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 So its basically MORE than 0z. its funny...mildews play by play made it sound like we were going to get screwed and the qpf held or got better in some areas(DCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, falling right in line with Accuwx forecast of a couple of days ago. phew suicides adverted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dover gets crushed again with .74" we're never gonna' beat them this year, never The time will come again in which we get a nice storm while they get mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ROA-.26" (flurries after storm give .02") ABE-.48" with .02" flurries after MDT-.38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 chris87, on 08 January 2011 - 01:16 PM, said: If people only knew some of the assumptions that are made in cloud microphysics schemes used in models, you would understand why QPF forecasts aren't very good. Not to fault researchers (believe me)...it just is a really hard process to parameterize and too computationally expensive to do explicitly. This! I'm constantly amazed the models score/verify as well as they do. Hey, both, check your PM's on Monday. I'll send you the draft exoscale computing roadmap that looks to mitigate the computational challenges chris87 references. It's for the eventual replacement for stratus and cirrus (so a ways off) and looks to solve the challenges on the h/w and s/w side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i dont think that's fully accurate even if some stations have more. it's pretty much the same but the qpf shield is slightly east here on the whole, slightly west down south in va though. run to run it's basically the same output.looking at hundredths of qpf is useless imo. Check your PMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The time will come again in which we get a nice storm while they get mixing. Might be this one, possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z will be uber telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Anything make it back to ROA? Thanks .27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 what airport code are you using for westmister? I use municipal apt dmw and it gives me .46 that's the station code I used, but I sometimes didn't include the .01 or .02 that were clearly flurries after the storm was over if it seemed apparent based on RH of 850 and 700mb, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 850's hr 66 -4 near ric 0c at rdu hr 72 -4 dc 0c va/nc border hr 78 dc -4 0c from danville to ptb east orf ~+2 hr 84 dc -4 ric -2 orf +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Check your PMs Check your PJ's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 its funny...mildews play by play made it sound like we were going to get screwed and the qpf held or got better in some areas(DCA) we're still 3-4 days out.. what are the odds any of these qpf numbers will be within .1? more important is the track the euro keeps spitting out is almost exactly the same run to run. though im still nervous with where it blows up... that could easily be an issue here with getting the highest qpf overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i dont think that's fully accurate even if some stations have more. it's pretty much the same but the qpf shield is slightly east here on the whole, slightly west down south in va though. run to run it's basically the same output.looking at hundredths of qpf is useless imo. In general the guidance seems to support a 2-4 or 3-5 inch 1st guess. I suspect that the gfs will trend towards the euro but this year, the models have tended to flop around even at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dover gets .74? How about SBY, and does temp create issues with precip type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z will be uber telling. I have to think the operational GFS will break at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ROA-.26" (flurries after storm give .02") ABE-.48" with .02" flurries after MDT-.38" Thank you, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Would anyone mind getting precip numbers for MDT and ABE? I know I'm popping in from the C PA forum but hey we all live in the snowhilr. thanks. ABE .5 MDT .34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 good thing we are getting a snowstorm because that arctic attack is looking pretty mundane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think Jason is still going to play the pops and snowfall pretty conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like Euro has the front type system coming through around Day 8 based on Day 7 maps off Plymouth Day 7 is cold enough, but don't know about Day 8 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 its funny...mildews play by play made it sound like we were going to get screwed and the qpf held or got better in some areas(DCA) He can make up anything he wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I have to think the operational GFS will break at some point. In all seriousness, I think it will. Baroclinic has been a serious debby downer in the past, but when thinks the GFS is out to lunch, it probably is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Can't blame that reasoning...too much uncertainty. I think Jason is still going to play the pops and snowfall pretty conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dover gets .74? How about SBY, and does temp create issues with precip type? .69" and warms to as high as 1.8C on surface, 850's are fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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