PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Real nice hold by the Euro. I was honestly worried it would slip east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 phl-.53" (was that posted yet?) I've been doing nothing but adding in my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 boston 12-15 inches? surface temps are questionable when the storm starts Ji... don't do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 lets be honest...alot of us were thinking after the 12z runs that we would get like .18 or something for the euro....we can relax till 12:45am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i need to move. I hate Leesburg It's a decent snowfall. Especially with H8 cooling from -5C to -10C during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Off how? too flat? i mean i dont know.. i still have trouble buying these tracks on the euro but the euro has better skill than the gfs so the last few runs are hard to ignore totally. middle ground is usually a good bet though they're all spitting out kinda similar qpf at this pt given the track differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Real nice hold by the Euro. I was honestly worried expecting it would slip east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That would be good. same for IAD a bit more for DC....it is what is...probably a 4-6 inch snowstorm for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 boston 12-15 inches? surface temps are questionable when the storm starts Give me 4-8 and I couldn't care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 phl-.53" (was that posted yet?) I've been doing nothing but adding in my head LYH if you don't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nothing better than a run with a better track and less precip. You are really into good conclusions this season.\ If you run the 500 mb animation (WRF, hee hee, or model of choice), the final few frames show that the 500mb vorticity dampens. Simply put, the storm weakens as it crosses the Blue Ridge and south central Apps. and nothing else is available to spin up the storm until it reaches the baroclinic zone offshore. (this zone being the persist clash of standing temperature patterns associated with the Gulf Stream). What was entirely different last winter was that the 500 mb pattern was the alter image; as storms transitioned into our area, the shortwaves reinforced the vorticity. Hopefully, the redtaggers here agree with my concept and can clean it up and explain it better. Sadly, until the spacing and timing of these short waves change a lot, we are stuck in a repeating cold/dry pattern. The repetition seems locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looked like much less but thats nice nevermind looking at the wrong crap 0.50 line runs from dc to farmville to orf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's a decent snowfall. Especially with H8 cooling from -5C to -10C during the event. That would help in the snow ratio department correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lets be honest...alot of us were thinking after the 12z runs that we would get like .18 or something for the euro....we can relax till 12:45am I have...now I need to change a diaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You have been good on this storm, Ian. 2-4 is still the best call. Maybe 3-6 is growing in confidence if we have a decent 18Z suite. I'd Go with 4" tops with 6" lollys and if we get more then bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Give me 4-8 and I couldn't care less. more like 10-12 for boston...not 12-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So its basically MORE than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LYH HGR: .3 LHY: .27 FDK: .39 JYO: .35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You are really into good conclusions this season.\ If you run the 500 mb animation (WRF, hee hee, or model of choice), the final few frames show that the 500mb vorticity dampens. Simply put, the storm weakens as it crosses the Blue Ridge and south central Apps. and nothing else is available to spin up the storm until it reaches the baroclinic zone offshore. (this zone being the persist clash of standing temperature patterns associated with the Gulf Stream). What was entirely different last winter was that the 500 mb pattern was the mirror image; as storms transitioned into our area, the shortwaves reinforced the vorticity. Hopefully, the redtaggers here agree with my concept and can clean it up and explain it better. Sadly, until the spacing and timing of these short waves change a lot, we are stuck in a repeating cold/dry pattern. The repetition seems locked in. uh oh, you've been reading too much of Tipp in the NE forum just kidding and sounds like a good explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nevermind looking at the wron crap 0.50 line runs from dc to farmville to orf You're fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 more like 10-12 for boston...not 12-15 So what? It's SNE......they should be getting a lot more than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 That would help in the snow ratio department correct? um ya...better dendrite growth..better ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Anything make it back to ROA? Thanks HGR: .3 LHY: .27 FDK: .39 JYO: .35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 phew suicides adverted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nevermind looking at the wrong crap 0.50 line runs from dc to farmville to orf Hate to ask IMBY-- How's it look west of Farmville?? Hard ending or slow taper down?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'd Go with 4" tops with 6" lollys and if we get more then bueno. A split between Euro and GFS would yield 3-6, I think. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 So what? It's SNE......they should be getting a lot more than us. no they shouldnt. We got 3 blizzards last year and thats our new climatology. We are just having an off year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Would anyone mind getting precip numbers for MDT and ABE? I know I'm popping in from the C PA forum but hey we all live in the snowhilr. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So its basically MORE than 0z. i dont think that's fully accurate even if some stations have more. it's pretty much the same but the qpf shield is slightly east here on the whole, slightly west down south in va though. run to run it's basically the same output.looking at hundredths of qpf is useless imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 no they shouldnt. We got 3 blizzards last year and thats our new climatology. We are just having an off year I don't envy them anymore......they got awfully screwed throughout pretty much all of last Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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