Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 if it makes you feel better...DC outsnowed Philly like .54 to .53 YES it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This thread is confusing. Ji, are your numbers just made up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 More than last night, I think. on qpf maps the .5 line is very similar but shifted slightly east .. looks se of dc on my maps tho so im not sure what the deal is i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 More than last night, I think. it may have a slightly sharper back edge but seems similar otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro seems consistent generally with itsself and Euro 0Z ensembles. biggest outlier of the 12Z runs is by far GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 More than last night, I think. same for IAD a bit more for DC....it is what is...probably a 4-6 inch snowstorm for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BWI-.55" MTN-.53" APG-.52" DCA-.53" (.02" falls after main storm) IAD-.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If people only knew some of the assumptions that are made in cloud microphysics schemes used in models, you would understand why QPF forecasts aren't very good. Not to fault researchers (believe me)...it just is a really hard process to parameterize and too computationally expensive to do explicitly. This! I'm constantly amazed the models score/verify as well as they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yeah more or less. i had to run earlier but just to be clear im not hugging the gfs but im not throwing it out. i think it's off a bit still. You have been good on this storm, Ian. 2-4 is still the best call. Maybe 3-6 is growing in confidence if we have a decent 18Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 on qpf maps the .5 line is very similar but shifted slightly east .. looks se of dc on my maps tho so im not sure what the deal is i guess 0z it was west of dc/balt.. now it's basically to the western edge of the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 NYC about .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BWI-.55" MTN-.53" APG-.52" DCA-.53" (.02" falls after main storm) IAD-.40" Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 .46" in RIC this run vs. .51" last night thru Wed 6Z looked like much less but thats nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 90 996 low just south of oz position qpf is much lower north and north west oc central va 0.20 dc 0.30 ric I am sorry for the stupid question but could the transfer that have people worried about the QPF be happening in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z it was west of dc/balt.. now it's basically to the western edge of the bay Eh, noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 BWI-.55" MTN-.53" APG-.52" DCA-.53" (.02" falls after main storm) IAD-.40" i need to move. I hate Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BWI-.55" MTN-.53" APG-.52" DCA-.53" (.02" falls after main storm) IAD-.40" LYH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This thread is confusing. Ji, are your numbers just made up? nope im looking at the euro MOS now DCA .55 total but some of that comes late as light snow lingers for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BWI-.55" MTN-.53" APG-.52" DCA-.53" (.02" falls after main storm) IAD-.40" I will take that and run. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 CHO-.31" WESTMINSTER-.52" ANNAPOLIS-.57" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 NYC about .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Eh, noise. barcolinic guy says tonight will have the most dramatic changes at 00z..for the better or for the worse....but its good that the EURO remained stubborn. 1 inch felt like alot to me today lol...cant imagine 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ok, time to hold your breath for 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am sorry for the stupid question but could the transfer that have people worried about the QPF be happening in this area? Yes- We want the transfer to occur as far south as physics will allow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Off how? yeah more or less. i had to run earlier but just to be clear im not hugging the gfs but im not throwing it out. i think it's off a bit still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 As I said before, in my opinion, models have gotten beyond using H5 Anomaly Correlation as a metric for skill.... This! I'm constantly amazed the models score/verify as well as they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You have been good on this storm, Ian. 2-4 is still the best call. Maybe 3-6 is growing in confidence if we have a decent 18Z suite. thx.. not over yet. i like 2-4/3-6 about equally i think, but 2-4 is safer while there is threat for a glance.. that seems less likely now than it has though. personal goal is just not to bounce around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nope im looking at the euro MOS now DCA .55 total but some of that comes late as light snow lingers for a while .01 comes first 6 hrs after storm and .01 comes second 6 hrs after storm no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 boston 12-15 inches? surface temps are questionable when the storm starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i need to move. I hate Leesburg Yes you do. To Garrett County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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