Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 78 1012 low near hat less precip further nw of central va ric at 0.25 dc at near 0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 72 northen extent about the same but there is alot more qpf in nc than 0z ric ~.20" that is a very good sign, the further south the energy starts to transfer to the coastal the better for everyone... unless you live right on the beaches perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This is going to be a good run of the Euro... OV low is in very SE KY at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So here is an "interesting to me question" for ya: Is this particular pattern relatively easy or relatively difficult for a model such as the GFS to generate consistent solutions? My less than informed oninion is that it should be easy--non-challenging--because the pattern seems to be in stasis--equilibrium--it continues to set up nearly the same with each system. Sure, each system is unique but they all seem to intensify and weaken in the same regions throughout the season. I don't have much experience in assessing forecasts during certain patterns. It would be interesting to see if there have been studies (wrt to verification scores) that have looked at relative model performance during different ENSO cycles, for example. Although, its hard to separate improvement (degradation) when operational centers are constantly updating model physics or assimilating new satellite observations...maybe someone else is familiar with any studies that have looked at this? Finally, as far as I can remember the ECMWF has been the best model, when considering H5 anomaly correlation (although you could have a pretty good debate that H5 AC is used to show improvement and carries a lot of weight but at this point, when all models are between 0.85 and 0.90 (most of the time), the statistical differences between models is no longer statistically significant). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 78 1012 low near hat less precip further nw of central va ric at 0.25 dc at near 0.10" Uh oh, hope its not about to pull one of these miller b type "tighten the precip up right along the coast" POS solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 84 more blow up of qpf over central va broad 1012 low east of nc/ va border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 thru Teus 18Z, less precip for RIC than 0Z run .20 vs. .34" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nothing better than a run with a better track and less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 DC is up to .40 by hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks good.. a little less qpf dc area than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nothing better than a run with a better track and less precip. for DC Tues 18z .10 Wed 00z .30 not bad dude...relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 .46" in RIC this run vs. .51" last night thru Wed 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 little qpf hole of ji's house. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks good.. a little less qpf dc area than 0z Mostly a hold, I think. More QPF than GFS, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 for DC Tues 18z .10 Wed 00z .30 not bad dude...relax Total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks good.. a little less qpf dc area than 0z shows a better period of heavy snow though..... .30 falls between 18z and 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It cranks it up 96hr map 983 SE of Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 84 more blow up of qpf over central va broad 1012 low east of nc/ va border I love your PBP but for future reference since it seems to be used a lot, what do you consider "central VA"? Are we talking Richmond area east or when you say central VA does that imply from richmond to LHY and CHO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 90 996 low just south of oz position qpf is much lower north and north west oc central va 0.20 dc 0.30 ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nothing better than a run with a better track and less precip. If people only knew some of the assumptions that are made in cloud microphysics schemes used in models, you would understand why QPF forecasts aren't very good. Not to fault researchers (believe me)...it just is a really hard process to parameterize and too computationally expensive to do explicitly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 mitchnick, we demand precip numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Panic over? Watch the 18z gfs come back W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Total in DC is .55 IAD is .40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 thru Wed 6Z more for BWI .52 v. .50 last night looks like a little more to come after Wed 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If people only knew some of the assumptions that are made in microphysics schemes used in models, you would understand why QPF forecasts aren't very good. Not to fault researchers (believe me)...it just is a really hard process to parameterize and too computationally expensive to do explicitly. No doubt. It is probably the piece I have the least amount of faith in, followed by temps at any real range. Amazing we can even get close considering the complexities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Total in DC is .55 IAD is .40 More than last night, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Mostly a hold, I think. More QPF than GFS, at least. yeah more or less. i had to run earlier but just to be clear im not hugging the gfs but im not throwing it out. i think it's off a bit still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 if it makes you feel better...DC outsnowed Philly like .54 to .53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 .50" QPF sounds good with me, especially if ratios are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Total in DC is .55 IAD is .40 Thanks Euro! Disaster averted. I'm ready to drink this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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