Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Midlo, you doing Euro play/play? 2 birthday parties 1 last night the other during the mid day runs hop on im here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well, a voice of reason from Henry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 30 s/w tad stronger more ridging in the east low placement nw. of 0z near tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 30 s/w tad stronger more ridging in the east low placement nw. of 0z near tx Sounds good all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 JB on the video today said 3-6 for Balt-Was with pockets of 10-12 but said he worried about the transfer. So to average out his forecast....1-12 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 JB on the video today said 3-6 for Balt-Was with pockets of 10-12 but said he worried about the transfer. So to average out his forecast....1-12 inches? JB code = but it may not happen at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hoping for good things, am really interested in the longer range outlook wrt temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 JB code = but it may not happen at all Yeah, JB always leaves an out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well, a voice of reason from Henry... Reduce all his numbers to a third of his projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 42 s/w dug in a liitle more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 48 hr 500 vorticities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 as of Sunday 18z, Heights are higher at HAT as I kept their mos from last night's Euro run well see how it goes as we get into the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 From a modelling perspective, how does the OP become such an outlier within it's ensembles at 72 hrs? If I understand how the ensemble members work that seems nonsensicle that the op varies from all 11 other members at 72 hrs. I wish I had an answer...in my opinion...the OPS is the model configuration that is run at the highest resolution with what is considered by the respective operational center to have the most optimally performing (or verified) model parameterizations (things like how cumulus convection is handled, boundary layer evolution, radiation and land surface physics..to name a few). Ensembles are run with either different physics or perturbed initial conditions with main goal of assessing the variability of a forecast. In general, the OPS is probably the most trusted solution on average..statistically speaking...yet nothing precludes the OPS solution from being completely different from an entire suite of ensembles which show a low amount of variability (around their solution). But to that point, either could be right, the GFS OPS solution is just on the flatter, OTS envelope of possible solutions. There is a good physical explanation why, but nothing sticks out from my quick analysis...that's why we leave it to computers to solve all these non-linear differential equations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, JB always leaves an out. yea, he says he is worried about DC and Baltimore with the transfer of energy translation: we are SOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 54 s/w is flat as a pancake northern branch a little more diggng east precip into nc central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 JB on the video today said 3-6 for Balt-Was with pockets of 10-12 but said he worried about the transfer. So to average out his forecast....1-12 inches? How much does he call for Philly, NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs ensembles look good GFS Ensembles run using a lower resolution of the Pre-July version of the model.....just sayin..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I wish I had an answer...in my opinion...the OPS is the model configuration that is run at the highest resolution with what is considered by the respective operational center to have the most optimally performing (or verified) model parameterizations (things like how cumulus convection is handled, boundary layer evolution, radiation and land surface physics..to name a few). Ensembles are run with either different physics or perturbed initial conditions with main goal of assessing the variability of a forecast. In general, the OPS is probably the most trusted solution on average..statistically speaking...yet nothing precludes the OPS solution from being completely different from an entire suite of ensembles which show a low amount of variability (around their solution). But to that point, either could be right, the GFS OPS solution is just on the flatter, OTS envelope of possible solutions. There is a good physical explanation why, but nothing sticks out from my quick analysis...that's why we leave it to computers to solve all these non-linear differential equations... Thanks for the reply.... fascinating stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 60 northern extent of precip further north near va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS Ensembles run using a lower resolution of the Pre-July version of the model.....just sayin..... You'd think maybe one would look like the operational though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS Ensembles run using a lower resolution of the Pre-July version of the model.....just sayin..... so are you saying the GFS ensemble mean no longer has a better verification score then the op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 From a modelling perspective, how does the OP become such an outlier within it's ensembles at 72 hrs? If I understand how the ensemble members work that seems nonsensicle that the op varies from all 11 other members at 72 hrs. See my post above re: version/resolutoin...also there are actually 21 members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I wish I had an answer.....that's why we leave it to computers to solve all these non-linear differential equations... So here is an "interesting to me question" for ya: Is this particular pattern relatively easy or relatively difficult for a model such as the GFS to generate consistent solutions? My less than informed oninion is that it should be easy--non-challenging--because the pattern seems to be in stasis--equilibrium--it continues to set up nearly the same with each system. Sure, each system is unique but they all seem to intensify and weaken in the same regions throughout the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 60 1016 low about the same spot precip further north in to ric was at va border at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks closer to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks closer to the NAM yea I like that look right there... as long as the energy moves east and not northeast from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 so are you saying the GFS ensemble mean no longer has a better verification score then the op run? It still does, but NOT in the short range (I don't know the cross over point, maybe day 5 or something). The OP is usually better than the raw ensemble mean in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hr 72 northen extent about the same but there is alot more qpf in nc than 0z ric ~.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yea, he says he is worried about DC and Baltimore with the transfer of energy translation: we are SOL Real translation...12/26 redux with good snows in VA and NC and then another foot for the snow-starved weenies of NYC/CT/LI/RI/MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What is the western extent of the precip in VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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