clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM has classic midatlantic screwjob written all over it. 500 low way to far north for any of us. Disaster 12z runs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 it's had various levels of support. it might be a bit extreme in its solution. the ens have failed us before, they can again... until there are 10,000 members running im not as eager to go hug them as some are given their weaknesses compared to the op. No other model looks like it really. Yes, surface result here in the snow hole is the same. Right for the wrong reasons, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM has classic midatlantic screwjob written all over it. 500 low way to far north for any of us. Disaster 12z runs so far. Wouldn't call them disaster 12z runs. NAM is a good hit. GFS and GGEM are bad. I know the NOGAPS and DGEX have risen from utter obscurity today to claim the EURO's crown but honestly I would discount them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 As always, there is a middle ground we want. The GGEM and NOGAPS only look like the GFS in terms of us getting screwed. They are quite different otherwise, especially up north. correct, the NOGAPS and GGEM problem is the H5 track is too far north, not that it washes the H5 energy out. GFS loses the h5 energy as it moves east, and I think that is utter BS. There will be enough energy, but problem is if its as far north as the GGEM/Nogaps advertise it won't do us any good. Perhaps NYC-BOS. UKMET looked better but honestly its a little to early to see how the H5 evolves from there it could slide east like the euro or NE like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If Tuesday's storm pulls snow out from under us like Lucy to Charlie Brown with the football...I'm going to start agreeing with Ji. Especially after this morning's boondoggle. The Sun's now shining on my 0.1" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i love how everyone just assumes the gfs is totally out to lunch even though there is very little reason to believe in an amplified solution You've been pretty consistent with your feeling that this wouldn't be much. Well, you're definitely still in the game. Honestly, I don't know why we put much faith in anything more than a couple days out. It's funny that this thread went from talking about March 1960 early this morning to this in a few short hours. To tell the truth, if it's going to warm up right after this, I don't really care anyway. Should be noted just how much of a flip flop these models have done regarding temperatures in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wouldn't call them disaster 12z runs. NAM is a good hit. GFS and GGEM are bad. I know the NOGAPS and DGEX have risen from utter obscurity today to claim the EURO's crown but honestly I would discount them. The only model showing any kind of significant snow is the NAM. And its in the NAM's long range. That's a disaster run if I've ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wouldn't call them disaster 12z runs. NAM is a good hit. GFS and GGEM are bad. I know the NOGAPS and DGEX have risen from utter obscurity today to claim the EURO's crown but honestly I would discount them. Dont believe the hype. Both still give us 2 or 3 inches, which is what we should expect right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ugh, I think I need a Ph.d No PH.d for me, just a lowly MS. The similarities are in the Atmospheric Physics and Remote Sensing parts... Oh, and, in keeping with the thread topic, interested to see what the Euro shows in 20 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If Tuesday's storm pulls snow out from under us like Lucy to Charlie Brown with the football...I'm going to start agreeing with Ji. Especially after this morning's boondoggle. The Sun's now shining on my 0.1" of fluff. yes I would tend to agree with you. All the forecasts I heard were for snow all morning, and it stopped pretty quickly after 7:00 am. Nothing new. I dont believe anything I hear from any news outlet anymore. Its ridiculous. The winter is going into the ****ter pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You've been pretty consistent with your feeling that this wouldn't be much. Well, you're definitely still in the game. Honestly, I don't know why we put much faith in anything more than a couple days out. It's funny that this thread went from talking about March 1960 early this morning to this in a few short hours. To tell the truth, if it's going to warm up right after this, I don't really care anyway. Should be noted just how much of a flip flop these models have done regarding temperatures in the near future. The Ian/Wes combo remains the steadiest on this. Still time for changes, good or bad, but the 2-3 inch range keeps popping up and has for days. I suspect the Euro will agree and show .25 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The only model showing any kind of significant snow is the NAM. And its in the NAM's long range. That's a disaster run if I've ever seen one. The latest EURO did, of course we have the new one coming out shortly here so it could be totally different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Dont believe the hype. Both still give us 2 or 3 inches, which is what we should expect right now. The only problem is that the GFS has shown that same .1-.25 probably like 4 times (4-12") so far this winter and I've gotten like 2 inches total. So I really won't expect anything unless I'm square in the middle of .25-.5 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the sad part is, that as bad as the Euro has been this year 3+ days out, whatever its solution in the next 45 minutes, it will give little solace what the heck have they done to these models over the years I think there is this competition amongst the designers/programmers to have their numerical models look good on that 500mb graph and its almost the he!! with the surface wx (I know that's extreme, but they don;t seem to be getting better no matter how someone may claim otherwise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the sad part is, that as bad as the Euro has been this year 3+ days out, whatever its solution in the next 45 minutes, it will give little solace what the heck have they done to these models over the years I think there is this competition amongst the designers/programmers to have their numerical models look good on that 500mb graph and its almost the he!! with the surface wx (I know that's extreme, but they don;t seem to be getting better no matter how someone may claim otherwise) The Euro Ensembles have been a pretty good tool this year. Now that we are around day 3 and into day 4, I'd hope that the OP wouldn't differ that radically from what the Ens means have been showing the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS Ensembles are still west of Op and look better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The Ian/Wes combo remains the steadiest on this. Still time for changes, good or bad, but the 2-3 inch range keeps popping up and has for days. I suspect the Euro will agree and show .25 or so. I'll take 2 or 3. I get to admire the beauty of it, I don't have to kill myself shoveling it, and when it warms up, I don't feel bad about it being gone. I'll say this, I think before the seasons over, the tide will turn just once, and a storm will be modeled wrong in our favor. Weird winter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs ensembles look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS Ensembles are still west of Op and look better... I'll take P1 and P10 as an appetizer please. Then I'll have a double portion of P9 as my main course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS Ensembles are still west of Op and look better... Wow...every member gives us snow and there's not a lot of divergence on the solutions. Almost all of them look better than the Op, at least at a quick glance. Still...I'm not going to believe it this time until I have to go out and shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow...every member gives us snow and there's not a lot of divergence on the solutions. Almost all of them look better than the Op, at least at a quick glance. Still...I'm not going to believe it this time until I have to go out and shovel. you could always shovel dirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 you could always shovel dirt Or how about salt? This winter so far, we've accumulated far more salt on the roads than total snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs ensembles look good They have for days but this might be the best batch yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like all the ensemble members are stronger at H5.... for example, 72 hour depiction: http://www.meteo.psu...GT_12z/f72.html still would like to see the H5 vort energy take a line from say the KY/TN border through southern VA, at least for the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i love how everyone just assumes the gfs is totally out to lunch even though there is very little reason to believe in an amplified solution Like clockwork, this pattern has periodicity. The favored areas continue and the screw zones continue. Nature hears our discontent and shrugs its shoulders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 People are so fickle. You guys need to just chill out. I really used to respect eastern and now american because of the level-headedness of everyone. But I can almost get better analysis from accuweather now. 0z and 6z were good and everyone was talking about a solid 2-4/4-8 event and now with a couple runs of the 12z models people are jumping ship. Truth is that the UKMET/NAM/GEFS all give a good shot for the mid-atantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Midlo, you doing Euro play/play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like all the ensemble members are stronger at H5.... for example, 72 hour depiction: http://www.meteo.psu...GT_12z/f72.html From a modelling perspective, how does the OP become such an outlier within it's ensembles at 72 hrs? If I understand how the ensemble members work that seems nonsensicle that the op varies from all 11 other members at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12z euro hr 24 only changes slightly more ridging in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looks like all the ensemble members are stronger at H5.... for example, 72 hour depiction: http://www.meteo.psu...GT_12z/f72.html still would like to see the H5 vort energy take a line from say the KY/TN border through southern VA, at least for the MA yea the op GFS idea of washing out the h5 energy is probably wrong, but its the track of the H5 that could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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