mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You came into today a bit bothered because you didn't get the advertised snow today so my guess is that you may be a little more hyper critical at this point perhaps? see my post above and then check this winter's forecasted snow stats and actual snow stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 close...i have my PhD in atmospheric science, but forecasting is not near my specialty...more of a hobby at this point in my career... more of a land surface modeler / data assimilation / remote sensing person.... Not a surprise, I could tell you were a modeler. Congrats on the PhD. I feel pretty humbled with my B.S. and my senior project working with LAPS compared to your background. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 see my post above and then check this winter's forecasted snow stats and actual snow stats I know how much snow has fallen Mitch...what's your point vs. mine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Phineas, don't even start your attacks on me a model that has had 6-8 runs showing a significant storm, whether it be the Euro or Nogaps, is jumping ship on us GFS hasn't really gotten on board this could be random noise, or it may not be considering the kind of winter we've had this is a wx Board and we discuss models, for better or worse It wasn't an attack, but you do need to relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not a surprise, I could tell you were a modeler. Congrats on the PhD. I feel pretty humbled with my B.S. and my senior project working with LAPS compared to your background. Thanks...I've seen your analysis....you really know what you're talking about...so i wouldn't be too humbled... the further you go along in school in this field...sometimes the further you get away from meteorology...especially because i got into this field to forecast...but then found out i loved research more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You sure? I'd definitely wait for the crucial NOGAPS ensembles and the more important 18z NOGAPS first. First of all when I am not worried that means we have no shot at a significant storm. If i feel its not going to happen I do not sweat it. When I think there is a good chance I do start to look at ways it could fall apart, because honestly even with a good setup there are numerous ways it could go wrong and we need much more to go right then wrong for it to all fall to pieces. With this particular storm evolution we have modeled right now the biggest threat we have to another screwjob is for the H5 energy out west to come east too far north. I am fairly confident that the OTS solutions are garbage and the trough from out west will catch the trough and reenergize the surface low. However the inverted trough will be moving north as the energy races east, and if that energy comes east too far north we are stuck in no mans land. The coastal is a dead wave until the H5 catches up. If that happens north of us, we are screwed. Now, that said, once I identify the biggest threat I do not want to see that solution showing up on guidance. I do not care what guidance it is, I never want to see what my biggest threat is showing up as we move towards the event. Now having it show up on a couple ensembles or one run of the NOGAPS is not a big deal. But its not a warm cozy feeling either. Now if it starts showing up on numerous guidance like the GGEM or UKMET or god forbid the EUro...then at that point I really start to feel my "fears" will be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not a surprise, I could tell you were a modeler. Congrats on the PhD. I feel pretty humbled with my B.S. and my senior project working with LAPS compared to your background. OK, since we have you geniuses here in this thread, what has to change at 500 mb to favor the Mid-Atlantic? The current pattern is so repetitive that cold-n-dry persistence is the expectation until something at 500 changes for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know how much snow has fallen Mitch...what's your point vs. mine? read my post on last page all I'm doing is going over the new model runs and comparing new runs to old and, the fact is, Nogaps now drops as much qpf on us as the GFS if no one thinks its significant, then fine, but it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It wasn't an attack, but you do need to relax. Im with mitchnick on this one though man..I think people were getting a little too optimistic after the EURO last night...That was probably the best case scenario, frankly I expect the EURO to take a step back..Maybe not to the extent of the GFS but I doubt itll look like last nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ukie actually looks good, like Euro Day 3 SLP http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 500MB http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It wasn't an attack, but you do need to relax. I am I'm gonna sit here 3 days out and look at models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Day 3 Ukie 700mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 850mb RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm waiting for the CRAS before I jump ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Day 3 Ukie 850 temps http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OK, since we have you geniuses here in this thread, what has to change at 500 mb to favor the Mid-Atlantic? The current pattern is so repetitive that cold-n-dry persistence is the expectation until something at 500 changes for us. I am sticking with my original thoughts-- there are some dynamical oddities with the GFS (I rarely ever say this since models don't do fluky things)--and I believe the GFS dynamic/kinematic fields are there. Probably around 0Z you will see a change in the overall solution--a large change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 close...i have my PhD in atmospheric science, but forecasting is not near my specialty...more of a hobby at this point in my career... more of a land surface modeler / data assimilation / remote sensing person.... Hey, me too. Send me a PM and let me know where you work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Canadian ots with very little precip for DCA/BWI (<.25") looks like the maps from this morning with the precip max to our east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Day 3 Ukie 850 temps http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Does look good. Western surface low reflection is farther south and the 500's look good. Would like to see some more digging from the northern energy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hey, me too. Send me a PM and let me know where you work. Ugh, I think I need a Ph.d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Canadian maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So much for model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What a strung out POS... amazing how the GFS always goes to crap in the day 3/4 range with the amplification of troffing in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So much for model consensus. well if the Euro jumps ship like Nogaps and Canadian, then there will be model consensus, but it just ain't the consensus we wanted or looked to have 12 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mykidsbutler Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ugh, I think I need a Ph.d I got one out in the garage i'll make you a deal on.............i know bad/old joke/off topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM solution looks the same at the surface as the GFS but its getting there totally different ways. GGEM solution is what I was worried about. It's taking the h5 energy too far north same as the nogaps. In this case the disconnect means the coastal low does not start to deepen and thus no storm. That H5 low can not be over Ohio into PA if we want anything more then an inch or two of snow here. The models that have had us getting hit track that H5 low over DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What a strung out POS... amazing how the GFS always goes to crap in the day 3/4 range with the amplification of troffing in the midwest. i love how everyone just assumes the gfs is totally out to lunch even though there is very little reason to believe in an amplified solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So much for model consensus. So now the UKMET looks like the Euro and GGEM looks more like the GFS (still a bit more west, especially up north). Nice consensus. Maybe Euro will have an inland runner to cap off the suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i love how everyone just assumes the gfs is totally out to lunch even though there is very little reason to believe in an amplified solution I think we assumed it was out to lunch because no other guidance supported it. If it gets supports, kudos to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think we assumed it was out to lunch because no other guidance supported it. If it gets supports, kudos to it. it's had various levels of support. it might be a bit extreme in its solution. the ens have failed us before, they can again... until there are 10,000 members running im not as eager to go hug them as some are given their weaknesses compared to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GGEM solution looks the same at the surface as the GFS but its getting there totally different ways. GGEM solution is what I was worried about. It's taking the h5 energy too far north same as the nogaps. In this case the disconnect means the coastal low does not start to deepen and thus no storm. That H5 low can not be over Ohio into PA if we want anything more then an inch or two of snow here. The models that have had us getting hit track that H5 low over DC. As always, there is a middle ground we want. The GGEM and NOGAPS only look like the GFS in terms of us getting screwed. They are quite different otherwise, especially up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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