aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nogaps top map is IT for DCA/BWI https://www.fnmoc.na...au=084&set=Core Goes on to hit NE in next two images https://www.fnmoc.na...au=090&set=Core https://www.fnmoc.na...au=096&set=Core GFS has support folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 fwiw, Nogaps is looking much worse than last runs, at least through 72 hours Maybe today is when the wheels come off the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nogaps top map is IT for DCA/BWI https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011010812&prod=prp&tau=084&set=Core Goes on to hit NE in next two images https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011010812&prod=prp&tau=090&set=Core https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011010812&prod=prp&tau=096&set=Core GFS has support folks are you serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 not quite.... this is https://www.fnmoc.na...au=072&set=Core not equal to this http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_072l.gif the surface result is the same remember, Nogaps has had the amped up solution for many runs in a row the fact that it looses it now may be a red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nogaps top map is IT for DCA/BWI https://www.fnmoc.na...au=084&set=Core Goes on to hit NE in next two images https://www.fnmoc.na...au=090&set=Core https://www.fnmoc.na...au=096&set=Core GFS has support folks the 78 hour map is the classic DC split screwjob lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 are you serious? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the surface result is the same remember, Nogaps has had the amped up solution for many runs in a row the fact that it looses it now may be a red flag I would never trust the NOGAPS at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Maybe today is when the wheels come off the bus. At least it snowed here today when it wasn't supposed to for the most part...so maybe it won't snow when it was supposed to..this is some funny stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 not quite.... this is https://www.fnmoc.na...au=072&set=Core not equal to this http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_072l.gif True enough. The NOGAPS surely is not the big, huge hit it has shown the past few days, but it's clearly at this point still well west of the GFS and overall looks better. Whatever that may be worth. Not saying the GFS will be wrong, but I wouldn't quite say the NOGAPS is suddenly in the GFS camp right now either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Agreed. The model solutions provided by the NOGAPS are at times very confusing....to say the least.... I'm not familiar with the vertical resolution of the NOGAPS but as was said before the ultimate goal of the NOGAPS for the Navy may serve its purpose better than it serves the purpose of forecasting winter storms.. I have read your posts.... Are you a numerical modeler--perhaps a graduate student doing some modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the surface result is the sameremember, Nogaps has had the amped up solution for many runs in a row the fact that it looses it now may be a red flag not quite... this is https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011010812∏=prpτ=090&set=Core not equal to this http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_090l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 At least it snowed here today when it wasn't supposed to for the most part...so maybe it won't snow when it was supposed to..this is some funny stuff. I am not going to bail based on the silly NOGAPS. Euro is always the arbiter in situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 not quite.... this is https://www.fnmoc.na...au=072&set=Core not equal to this http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_072l.gif you are right, but the NOGAPS way of screwing us is my fear not the GFS. The nogaps tracks the h5 low way too far north, over central PA. Basically the trough from the old southern wave is north of us before the energy catches up from the west so everything gets going too late. That is the bigger threat then this way OTS garbage the GFS is spitting out. The GFS did not bother me one bit, the NOGAPS solutions is more troublesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I would never trust the NOGAPS at the surface. Fixed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 you are right, but the NOGAPS way of screwing us is my fear not the GFS. The nogaps tracks the h5 low way too far north, over central PA. Basically the trough from the old southern wave is north of us before the energy catches up from the west so everything gets going too late. That is the bigger threat then this way OTS garbage the GFS is spitting out. The GFS did not bother me one bit, the NOGAPS solutions is more troublesome. Yeah, bro... fear the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am not going to bail based on the silly NOGAPS. Euro is always the arbiter in situations like this. The clues phineas the clues...you have to find the clues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nogaps https://www.fnmoc.na...au=084&set=Core We'll be digging mass graves for DC/RIC/RDU snow weenies if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I would never trust the NOGAPS at the surface. but comparing apples to apples (prior runs of Nogaps to new run of Nogaps) it suggests bad things look, we are 3+ days away from this "thing" in the DCA/BWI area a lot can still go wrong, or a lot can go right GFS didn't bother me....now I'm a bit bothered, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 you are right, but the NOGAPS way of screwing us is my fear not the GFS. The nogaps tracks the h5 low way too far north, over central PA. Basically the trough from the old southern wave is north of us before the energy catches up from the west so everything gets going too late. That is the bigger threat then this way OTS garbage the GFS is spitting out. The GFS did not bother me one bit, the NOGAPS solutions is more troublesome. agreed...it's not great for DC/BWI...but it is a closer to the NAM than the GFS....and it is still quite a great run for New England...where the GFS is straight out to sea....maybe my analysis is a little too broad sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 you are right, but the NOGAPS way of screwing us is my fear not the GFS. The nogaps tracks the h5 low way too far north, over central PA. Basically the trough from the old southern wave is north of us before the energy catches up from the west so everything gets going too late. That is the bigger threat then this way OTS garbage the GFS is spitting out. The GFS did not bother me one bit, the NOGAPS solutions is more troublesome. You sure? I'd definitely wait for the crucial NOGAPS ensembles and the more important 18z NOGAPS first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 but comparing apples to apples (prior runs of Nogaps to new run of Nogaps) it suggests bad things look, we are 3+ days away from this "thing" in the DCA/BWI area a lot can still go wrong, or a lot can go right GFS didn't bother me....now I'm a bit bothered, that's all that's fair....the upper level energy being farther north is not going to be great for DCA/BWI.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I would never trust the NOGAPS at the surface. the problem isnt the surface its H5, Nogaps is still amped up but it tracks the H5 low way north of previous runs, instead of tracking over VA it takes the H5 low over Ohio into central PA then over NYC. Its not even close to a good track for this area at H5 and a huge shift from previous runs. Don't kid yourself that the problem is just the surface. Of course it is the NOGAPS so unless the GGEM/UKMET/Euro shows a similar solution then I would not worry too much. If one or more of them follow the NOGAPS in tracking the H5 low north of us then we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 not quite... this is https://www.fnmoc.na...au=090&set=Core not equal to this http://www.nco.ncep....fs_slp_090l.gif well, let me be clear I am speaking of the DCA/BWI area Nogaps gives us 4-6mm, which is between .1 and .25", and that is what the GFS drops on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 but comparing apples to apples (prior runs of Nogaps to new run of Nogaps) it suggests bad things look, we are 3+ days away from this "thing" in the DCA/BWI area a lot can still go wrong, or a lot can go right GFS didn't bother me....now I'm a bit bothered, that's all You came into today a bit bothered because you didn't get the advertised snow today so my guess is that you may be a little more hyper critical at this point perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the problem isnt the surface its H5, Nogaps is still amped up but it tracks the H5 low way north of previous runs, instead of tracking over VA it takes the H5 low over Ohio into central PA then over NYC. Its not even close to a good track for this area at H5 and a huge shift from previous runs. Don't kid yourself that the problem is just the surface. Of course it is the NOGAPS so unless the GGEM/UKMET/Euro shows a similar solution then I would not worry too much. If one or more of them follow the NOGAPS in tracking the H5 low north of us then we are in trouble. Take deep breaths, maybe drink a cup of hot tea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I have read your posts.... Are you a numerical modeler--perhaps a graduate student doing some modeling? close...i have my PhD in atmospheric science, but forecasting is not near my specialty...more of a hobby at this point in my career... more of a land surface modeler / data assimilation / remote sensing person.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 that's fair....the upper level energy being farther north is not going to be great for DCA/BWI.... I think my issue with the mass panic here is that the GFS doesn't really look like the NOGAPS. Both are screwjobs but the scenarios are different. They don't support each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Does anyone know where the love of G-d goes when the gfs and nogaps turn minutes to hours? The midatlantic might have had its storm it is said, if the 500 low had closed off south-er... (To tune of Edmund Fitzgerald) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Phineas, don't even start your attacks on me a model that has had 6-8 runs showing a significant storm, whether it be the Euro or Nogaps, is jumping ship on us GFS hasn't really gotten on board this could be random noise, or it may not be considering the kind of winter we've had this is a wx Board and we discuss models, for better or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the problem isnt the surface its H5, Nogaps is still amped up but it tracks the H5 low way north of previous runs, instead of tracking over VA it takes the H5 low over Ohio into central PA then over NYC. The seasonal trend is really repetitive...each storm is setting up the same as if on rails like slot cars. GFS gives 0 to 2 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 depending on how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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