Stormpc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 at 90 it even misses NJ/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS looks like cr@p for DCA/BWI only problem is, if this year hadn't gone the way its gone, I wouldn't have to leave it as a viable option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS is mostly a weak miss. Definitely the eastern/weak outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS looks like cr@p for DCA/BWI only problem is, if this year hadn't gone the way its gone, I wouldn't leave it open as a viable option It looks like crap for everyone. Totally misses SNE. It has no support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That was a real let down. Of course the GFS op has been playing this game for a while. Willing to bet the GFS ensembles have more of a NAM solution then its own op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looking at 72 I think we are probably looking at a farther north solution for the coastal to take over. If by further north, you mean OTS, yeah, good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That was a real let down. Of course the GFS op has been playing this game for a while. Willing to bet the GFS ensembles have more of a NAM solution then its own op. Why? It has zero support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It looks like crap for everyone. Totally misses SNE. It has no support. well,again the way things have gone, it only takes one run to start a trend let's see what the rest of the globals have to say before dismissing it completely admittedly, I prefer having the NAM on our side this time instead of the GFS like 12/26, but anything that could screw us remains possible in my mind until we can break the "curse" so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS looks like cr@p for DCA/BWI only problem is, if this year hadn't gone the way its gone, I wouldn't have to leave it as a viable option Just a terrible run. Total mess. What the heck is it seeing that others aren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If by further north, you mean OTS, yeah, good call. Yep, should have seen that coming after watching the op runs the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well,again the way things have gone, it only takes one run to start a trend let's see what the rest of the globals have to say before dismissing it completely admittedly, I prefer having the NAM on our side this time instead of the GFS like 12/26, but anything that could screw us remains possible in my mind until we can break the "curse" so to speak "Curse"... no kidding. You're right though..like having the NAM in our camp. Glad the GFS is on its own for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Why? It has zero support. Didn't say I believed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, quite the weak solution from the GFS. Hasn't it sort of gone back and forth lately between that, and something that looks at least marginally better, the past couple of days? Clearly one of the biggest differences is the 500 mb trough remaining very flat-looking, compared to how much it digs in the NAM. Which one will be correct? Who knows. But it seems to me the GFS has been fairly broad and flat with that trough for awhile now, despite the high vorticity. I'll be interested also, to see the ensembles. Hey, anyone seen what the latest NOGAPS looked like?? HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just a terrible run. Total mess. What the heck is it seeing that others aren't? Until it gets some support, safer to say it is missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, quite the weak solution from the GFS. Hasn't it sort of gone back and forth lately between that, and something that looks at least marginally better, the past couple of days? Clearly one of the biggest differences is the 500 mb trough remaining very flat-looking, compared to how much it digs in the NAM. Which one will be correct? Who knows. But it seems to me the GFS has been fairly broad and flat with that trough for awhile now, despite the high vorticity. I'll be interested also, to see the ensembles. Hey, anyone seen what the latest NOGAPS looked like?? HA! They have been well NW of the operational for days. The Euro corrected, not sure why the GFS won't. If this things mostly misses OTS the GFS deserves major kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 In Euro we trust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 "Curse"... no kidding. You're right though..like having the NAM in our camp. Glad the GFS is on its own for now. You like having the 84 hour NAM in our camp? Im not going to say I dont like it because its one option and a good one tat that but the 84 hour NAM isnt what you call reliable....I like the fact more the 00Z Euro is in our camp and hopefully 12Z stays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wow, quite the weak solution from the GFS. Hasn't it sort of gone back and forth lately between that, and something that looks at least marginally better, the past couple of days? Clearly one of the biggest differences is the 500 mb trough remaining very flat-looking, compared to how much it digs in the NAM. Which one will be correct? Who knows. But it seems to me the GFS has been fairly broad and flat with that trough for awhile now, despite the high vorticity. I'll be interested also, to see the ensembles. Hey, anyone seen what the latest NOGAPS looked like?? HA! 12Z run? do you have a link? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 In Euro we trust? I'd be more worried if the NAM, Euro, Euro ensembles, and GFS ensembles all didn't have more wound-up looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just a terrible run. Total mess. What the heck is it seeing that others aren't? its washing out the h5 low as it moves east instead of amplifying it. Look at the 84 hours GFS h5 and compare it to the NAM at the same time or the Euro and you will see the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 In Euro we trust? Yes, Until the GFS gets some support I'm considering it out to lunch. Back around 1 to check out the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 They have been well NW of the operational for days. The Euro corrected, not sure why the GFS won't. If this things mostly misses OTS the GFS deserves major kudos. Yup, exactly! The ensemble mean has been very noticably to the northwest of the operational for some time now. I'll be interested to see if that continues with this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 its washing out the h5 low as it moves east instead of amplifying it. Look at the 84 hours GFS h5 and compare it to the NAM at the same time or the Euro and you will see the difference. Thanks...I see it. WOW there still seems to be a big difference. Looking forward to the Euro which will hopefully shed some light on which version might be right. Until then bring on the NOGAPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 its washing out the h5 low as it moves east instead of amplifying it. Look at the 84 hours GFS h5 and compare it to the NAM at the same time or the Euro and you will see the difference. It seems to have been doing this in several of its cycles the past few days, or wavering back and forth on what to do. But overall, it keeps that trough too broad. Sometimes, it's been a bit more amplified and gave a better-looking solution, other times it washed it out like today's 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will be important for the Euro to hold at 12Z. If it heads back towards the GFS, that might lend credence to that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 fwiw, Nogaps is looking much worse than last runs, at least through 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 fwiw, Nogaps is looking much worse than last runs, at least through 72 hours Maybe we'll see a massive jumping ship of the models towards the GFS. Ultimate kick to the groin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will be important for the Euro to hold at 12Z. If it heads back towards the GFS, that might lend credence to that solution. Every solution has some sort of credence...Pretty sure the outlier won many times the last few storms when we get to about 84-96 hours...Fact is this is going to be a relatively weak low so no one should really be expecting more than 3-6/4-8 anyway...not saying you are just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nogaps top map is IT for DCA/BWI https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011010812∏=prpτ=084&set=Core Goes on to hit NE in next two images https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011010812∏=prpτ=090&set=Core https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011010812∏=prpτ=096&set=Core GFS has support folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nogaps top map is IT for DCA/BWI https://www.fnmoc.na...au=084&set=Core Goes on to hit NE in next two images https://www.fnmoc.na...au=090&set=Core https://www.fnmoc.na...au=096&set=Core GFS has support folks not quite.... this is https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011010812∏=500τ=072&set=Core not equal to this http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_072l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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