chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FNMOC and the folks at NRL should not be mocked in any way, but some of the NOGAPS solutions have been on the "bombastic" side. We can't give credit yet, but I do hear you in that the NOGAPS may have had a close solution first--closer than the GFS and other globals perhaps. It should be noted, unless I am wrong, that the NOGAPS also runs around 30 or so vertical levels. This is pretty archaic compared to most models these days. That said, the folks at FNMOC/NRL etc are no less intelligent than any others in the modeling world. They do a great job as well. Agreed. The model solutions provided by the NOGAPS are at times very confusing....to say the least.... I'm not familiar with the vertical resolution of the NOGAPS but as was said before the ultimate goal of the NOGAPS for the Navy may serve its purpose better than it serves the purpose of forecasting winter storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The nam is a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow with 2-4 or maybe 5 for the dc area if we were lucky and then a dry slot unless the upper low somehow reforms to the south and gets us in the deformation zone. I'm not wild about having a closed low at our latitude. I'd rather the euro solution. Still, it's going to be the dc areas biggest snow of the season no matter which model is right. Agreed. I'd like to see the upper low dig a little bit more..the DC/BWI corridor are going to be probably just a bit too late to get into the deformation...but a nice event shown by the NAM....sometimes its hard not to imagine how you could see it coming together for a better output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The nam is a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow with 2-4 or maybe 5 for the dc area if we were lucky and then a dry slot unless the upper low somehow reforms to the south and gets us in the deformation zone. I'm not wild about having a closed low at our latitude. I'd rather the euro solution. Still, it's going to be the dc areas biggest snow of the season no matter which model is right. NAM seems to be quicker with the system looking at 4 day Euro that is below (0Z Wed) vs. NAM at 84 hrs (12Z Tue), both models show the 5460 height line at almost the identical location in a SW/NE trajectory over DCA/BWI if the NAM was to slow down a bit to Euro's speed AND allow the western trough to dig some more, that might work out better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The nam is a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow with 2-4 or maybe 5 for the dc area if we were lucky and then a dry slot unless the upper low somehow reforms to the south and gets us in the deformation zone. I'm not wild about having a closed low at our latitude. I'd rather the euro solution. Still, it's going to be the dc areas biggest snow of the season no matter which model is right. I don't disagree. Hence why I agree with your snow totals overall. There is some hedge room either way, but I find your totals about exactly what I would have gone with considering the situation. I think a lot of folks would be quite ecstatic about the potential for 2-5" without needing the stars to align. As for the dry slot, that is a worry, but I think that is what keeps this threat to a 2-5" amount for DC/BA and not more. You and Ian are quite realistic in your forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hopefully, the trend to the west is over. DC/BWI/PHL will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hopefully, the trend to the west is over. lol........precip type isn't the issue, dryslotting is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol........precip type isn't the issue, dryslotting is. Even with a dryslot, NAM shows a thump snow of 6-10 hours for DCA/BWI, with the further the north being the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I don't disagree. Hence why I agree with your snow totals overall. There is some hedge room either way, but I find your totals about exactly what I would have gone with considering the situation. I think a lot of folks would be quite ecstatic about the potential for 2-5" without needing the stars to align. As for the dry slot, that is a worry, but I think that is what keeps this threat to a 2-5" amount for DC/BA and not more. You and Ian are quite realistic in your forecasts. I'm not doing a blog today but Jason will probalby call and I'm going to try to get us to really jack up the 1" probabilities. Even yesterday, I thought we were a little low but since we still 4 days away, being conservative was the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Even with a dryslot, NAM shows a thump snow of 6-10 hours Like wes said, it would amount to maybe 2-4" (or maybe 3-6" in Baltimore) and I'm sure 40N would get 8"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's nice knowing that we will see some snow no matter what specific details come to fruition in the next 72hrs. Wasn't the case with BDI. To me the pressure is then off, and I think it will be a fun storm to track, as minor details with the upper energy determine whether this is pedestrian or a big deal. So, it will go down to the wire probably. I'll be rooting for the thing to close off in southern WV or SW VA and track ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Like wes said, it would amount to maybe 2-4", and I'm sure 40N would get 8"+. Go whine somewhere else, Fuzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The way the NAM looked from 84 hours out for today and 72 hours out for today and 48 hours out for today and even 24 hours out for today....I'll pass on what it has to say at this point. Doesn't make me right just means I'm not confident in this solution good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Go whine somewhere else, Fuzz. There is no need to start any fights over this. We probably get something modest out of this, and more than just a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The way the NAM looked from 84 hours out for today and 72 hours out for today and 48 hours out for today and even 24 hours out for today....I'll pass on what it has to say at this point. Doesn't make me right just means I'm not confident in this solution good or bad The only thing it does at this range is providing some backing for the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The way the NAM looked from 84 hours out for today and 72 hours out for today and 48 hours out for today and even 24 hours out for today....I'll pass on what it has to say at this point. Doesn't make me right just means I'm not confident in this solution good or bad well considering every event for BWI (including today's) has fallen apart literally within 12-24 hours of it starting, this is probably the best way to look at it, but you know us weenies...mentally self-destructive every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 well considering every event for BWI (including today's) has fallen apart literally within 12-24 hours of it starting, this is probably the best way to look at it, but you know us weenies...mentally self-destructive every time I'm not sure today really fell apart. These setups are always tough and it did snow (still snowing here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know Randy knew that, I just don;t think he thought it looked like a KU even, at least for us this lol @ him trying to explain to me what KU was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Not if the west trend continues. lol........precip type isn't the issue, dryslotting is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 all I can say is, Tuesday is coming together about as nicely as it could all things considered I just hope we get verification this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Agreed. all I can say is, Tuesday is coming together about as nicely as it could all things considered I just hope we get verification this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Heights in front of the northern energy building more then the 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not sure today really fell apart. These setups are always tough and it did snow (still snowing here). its a bust here 1-3"? ha, we didn't even get 1-3 hours of snow let alone 1" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 12 z gfs hr 72 ... not the greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 its a bust here 1-3"? ha, we didn't even get 1-3 hours of snow let alone 1" of snow I think most of us weren't paying any attention to today for a good reason..SNOOZER. 72 GFS is def looking more amped in the northern stream at 500MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like the northern energy is holding back some compared to the 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol at the GFS 72 hrs it'll show something, but it won;t be the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The GFS remains in its own little world where there might be no real storm at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looking at 72 I think we are probably looking at a farther north solution for the coastal to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looking at 72 I think we are probably looking at a farther north solution for the coastal to take over. Does seem that way ... 500 vort is noticably farther north than 6Z. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.