Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Lordy, the next frame (if there was one) would be freaking great! I'll say... Omegas of -15 over DC area... we'd get a period of very heavy snow. Seasonal trend is to move things a bit S over time, and a little nudge south would be still AOK in my books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ENDER....you were right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 <br /><img src="http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znam850mbTSLPp06_county084.gif" /> Midlo, you and I are probably okay with the 850 there, as long as that's as far north and west as it makes it, but most of RIC isn't, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The NAM is right before the GFS catches a clue--how often does that happen? Well, the NAM does get to run first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ENDER....you were right! Ah, yeah, sure. Let's just all go to the mall and stop watching the models. It's obviously a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 <br /><img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_ref_084l.gif" /><br /> That mofo is about to dryslot Cent. VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ah, yeah, sure. Let's just all go to the mall and stop watching the models. It's obviously a done deal. Haha true. But my gut feeling says GFS will continue to improve in its kinematic/dynamic representation with little to no improvement in the overall scenario. Being a betting man, I will say slight improvement for the 12Z run, but the big shift won't come until 0Z for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ah, yeah, sure. Let's just all go to the mall and stop watching the models. It's obviously a done deal. well I was talking about those in MD liking the NAM then again, it gave me .12" qpf on last night's 0Z run and I'm guessing .02" has fallen and the chances of more look bleak, so I guess I have no reason to be celebrating except for the fact I'm a hopeless snow weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 if that trough could be just 50 miles south of where its currently depicted, DCA/BWI would be in heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I approve of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If this thing winds up for the MA and NE like the NAM says it's possible... do you realize this would be the 6th KU event in only the last winter and a half?... that's incredible since the long term average is what, an event every 2 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 if that trough could be just 50 miles south of where its currently depicted, DCA/BWI would be in heaven If that trough was digging further south, that'd allow the coastal to take over sooner, deepen/intensify quicker, right? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If that trough was digging further south, that'd allow the coastal to take over sooner, deepen/intensify quicker, right? Thanks. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 if that trough could be just 50 miles south of where its currently depicted, DCA/BWI would be in heaven Thinking the same thing. Still think we would do very well as the coastal took over BUT have that drop another 50 to 100 miles and I think it would be lights out. Of course we are talking the long range on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If this thing winds up for the MA and NE like the NAM says it's possible... do you realize this would be the 6th KU event in only the last winter and a half?... that's incredible since the long term average is what, an event every 2 years or so. I don't think this would be a KU event for DCA/MA as depicted by the NAM PHL N & E, yeah it has a shot for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If this thing winds up for the MA and NE like the NAM says it's possible... do you realize this would be the 6th KU event in only the last winter and a half?... that's incredible since the long term average is what, an event every 2 years or so. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just a quick aside...I haven't been able to post during the week because of work constraints but I saw a lot of negativity towards the NOGAPS, which from the standpoint of a NWP model can be justified because of its less than adequate verification scores, but its consistency towards showing a more amplified solution appears to have been at least been shown to be a potential solution at this point as more and more models show a more amplified solution.... so it should be noted that as a NWP model the NOGAPS can not be considered as good as other global models, but the data assimilation team at NRL has developed and is currently using 4DVAR, a scheme consistent with ECMWF, so although the NOGAPS should be taken with a grain of salt, it should at the same time at least be considered from time to time because of its advanced assimilation analysis scheme on the front-end of the NWP model... just my thoughts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This looks like a snow to mix back to snow event once the transfer takes place, especially closer toward the coast. Had many of those growing up in South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 if that trough could be just 50 miles south of where its currently depicted, DCA/BWI would be in heaven Gotta love that h5 difluence. H7 Omega's are good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 What? Kocin-Uccellini: an event appearing here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/nesis.php#rankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Kocin-Uccellini: an event appearing here: http://www.ncdc.noaa...is.php#rankings I know Randy knew that, I just don;t think he thought it looked like a KU even, at least for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just a quick aside...I haven't been able to post during the week because of work constraints but I saw a lot of negativity towards the NOGAPS, which from the standpoint of a NWP model can be justified because of its less than adequate verification scores, but its consistency towards showing a more amplified solution appears to have been at least been shown to be a potential solution at this point as more and more models show a more amplified solution.... so it should be noted that as a NWP model the NOGAPS can not be considered as good as other global models, but the data assimilation team at NRL has developed and is currently using 4DVAR, a scheme consistent with ECMWF, so although the NOGAPS should be taken with a grain of salt, it should at the same time at least be considered from time to time because of its advanced assimilation analysis scheme on the front-end of the NWP model... just my thoughts.... I had wondered. I often follow the Nogaps to distinguish trends... e.g. if its amplified and the other models are flat, the other models will likely amplify before long. I've noticed that if there is an abruft shift in the Nogaps (such as amplifying) the Euro often follows suite the same run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I approve of this run. Ditto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just a quick aside...I haven't been able to post during the week because of work constraints but I saw a lot of negativity towards the NOGAPS, which from the standpoint of a NWP model can be justified because of its less than adequate verification scores, but its consistency towards showing a more amplified solution appears to have been at least been shown to be a potential solution at this point as more and more models show a more amplified solution.... so it should be noted that as a NWP model the NOGAPS can not be considered as good as other global models, but the data assimilation team at NRL has developed and is currently using 4DVAR, a scheme consistent with ECMWF, so although the NOGAPS should be taken with a grain of salt, it should at the same time at least be considered from time to time because of its advanced assimilation analysis scheme on the front-end of the NWP model... just my thoughts.... I could be wrong here, but the intention of the NOGAPS was never CONUS. Was it? I thought at least the initial goal was wave/sea modeling and oceanic systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Don't be so optimistic guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Just a quick aside...I haven't been able to post during the week because of work constraints but I saw a lot of negativity towards the NOGAPS, which from the standpoint of a NWP model can be justified because of its less than adequate verification scores, but its consistency towards showing a more amplified solution appears to have been at least been shown to be a potential solution at this point as more and more models show a more amplified solution.... so it should be noted that as a NWP model the NOGAPS can not be considered as good as other global models, but the data assimilation team at NRL has developed and is currently using 4DVAR, a scheme consistent with ECMWF, so although the NOGAPS should be taken with a grain of salt, it should at the same time at least be considered from time to time because of its advanced assimilation analysis scheme on the front-end of the NWP model... just my thoughts.... FNMOC and the folks at NRL should not be mocked in any way, but some of the NOGAPS solutions have been on the "bombastic" side. We can't give credit yet, but I do hear you in that the NOGAPS may have had a close solution first--closer than the GFS and other globals perhaps. It should be noted, unless I am wrong, that the NOGAPS also runs around 30 or so vertical levels. This is pretty archaic compared to most models these days. That said, the folks at FNMOC/NRL etc are no less intelligent than any others in the modeling world. They do a great job as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Haha true. But my gut feeling says GFS will continue to improve in its kinematic/dynamic representation with little to no improvement in the overall scenario. Being a betting man, I will say slight improvement for the 12Z run, but the big shift won't come until 0Z for the GFS. The nam is a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow with 2-4 or maybe 5 for the dc area if we were lucky and then a dry slot unless the upper low somehow reforms to the south and gets us in the deformation zone. I'm not wild about having a closed low at our latitude. I'd rather the euro solution. Still, it's going to be the dc areas biggest snow of the season no matter which model is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You know, I've heard a lot of people talking about the SREF, NAM and Euro and how they are to warm for coastal area's etc etc. Shouldn't we take a step back and realize that this is still 3 days out. A lot of you guys warn weenies like myself to not get wrapped up in temps and qpf amounts until under 48 hrs. SREF and NAM are showing precip reaching our area toward the end of their runs and when they should be the least trusted. With that said, I can definitely see the possibility of the northern energy really bringing the mild temps in for places like DC/Balt/Phil. BUT, this storm still has a good bit of wiggle room so let's give it some time before making assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I could be wrong here, but the intention of the NOGAPS was never CONUS. Was it? I thought at least the initial goal was wave/sea modeling and oceanic systems. I believe you are right. The end goal of the NOGAPS serves the needs of the US Navy and they may well be very happy with its output and how it is used in their other specific products... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 You know, I've heard a lot of people talking about the SREF, NAM and Euro and how they are to warm for coastal area's etc etc. Shouldn't we take a step back and realize that this is still 3 days out. A lot of you guys warn weenies like myself to not get wrapped up in temps and qpf amounts until under 48 hrs. SREF and NAM are showing precip reaching our area toward the end of their runs and when they should be the least trusted. With that said, I can definitely see the possibility of the northern energy really bringing the mild temps in for places like DC/Balt/Phil. BUT, this storm still has a good bit of wiggle room so let's give it some time before making assumptions. DC/BWI/PHL will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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