baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Agreed...I'll go with the Euro ensembles at this point...even though that is a cop out. But they are king even in this model-troubled winter. I would actually be worried about a further north and more robust solution. The -NAO is impressive but its in the process of breaking down....we are seeing one of the few breakdowns this winter (then it will probably build back after 7-10 days). But most big snowstorms over the EC occur when the nao breaks down...not when it ramps up. The Archambault events are when it ramps up to negative, but that is precip and not snow....a lot of the snowstorms were when it went from negative to positive. Or negative to neutral. Yeah good points. The GFS has seemingly had the most trouble adjusting to the breakdown of the -NAO amongst the globals and has been the least bullish in developing a more amplified height field pattern in the mid/upper levels. What confounds me is the way it comes in more impressive each run from a dynamic standpoint yet it seems to produce the same result. It is very weird, and this run really looked much better overall even though it paints a similar eventual scenario. The height field, the much more curved jet max (also stronger through 84), a fatter mid level S/W and a more diffluent upper level height field into the upstream ridge. It all screams stronger development...and it seems sooner or later the GFS will have to shift in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah I see that now, the upper wave is too flat. I still honestly don't buy the GFS and the way it plows the wave through that ridge and remains so flat and pathetic. GFS op continues to remains a stalwart though. The GFS hasn't looked right to me for a couple of days now with how it handles the interaction between the southern shortwave and the energy diving down. I have been thinking that it leaves the duel low or strung out low to long and that it should consolidate better with a more westerly track. The current 06Z run seems a little better then previous runs though and it looks like a more westerly track because of that. Also the ensemble members have seemed to be better then the OP on a quicker consolidation and with that they have also had a more westerly track on the means. Question I have is, is my thinking right as far as my assumption and if so is the delaying of the merging of duel structure strung out low a realistic option. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The GFS hasn't looked right to me for a couple of days now with how it handles the interaction between the southern shortwave and the energy diving down. I have been thinking that it leaves the duel low or strung out low to long and that it should consolidate better with a more westerly track. The current 06Z run seems a little better then previous runs though and it looks like a more westerly track because of that. Also the ensemble members have seemed to be better then the OP on a quicker consolidation and with that they have also had a more westerly track on the means. Question I have is, is my thinking right as far as my assumption and if so is the delaying of the merging of duel structure strung out low a realistic option. Thanks in advance. This is basically what I am talking about. This is the current 06Z and it seems to do a better job then the previous runs of merging the duel structured low but it still seems to slow to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The GFS hasn't looked right to me for a couple of days now with how it handles the interaction between the southern shortwave and the energy diving down. I have been thinking that it leaves the duel low or strung out low to long and that it should consolidate better with a more westerly track. The current 06Z run seems a little better then previous runs though and it looks like a more westerly track because of that. Also the ensemble members have seemed to be better then the OP on a quicker consolidation and with that they have also had a more westerly track on the means. Question I have is, is my thinking right as far as my assumption and if so is the delaying of the merging of duel structure strung out low a realistic option. Thanks in advance. A lot of different scenarios can still play out. It is almost a sure bet though, even based off the GFS and its own dynamic/kinematic fields, is that there will be a more impressive and stronger primary surface low/inverted trough over the OV as it heads E. It is seemingly impossible to have a low amplitude S/W like the GFS does interacting with an amplified upper level ridge and simply passing through it in such a weak way. Forced ascent aloft with that shortwave (DPVA) will develop a stronger low level circulation NW and will also enhance the warm air advection off the coast. It is likely that the low off the coast tracks closer inland as a result of the stronger primary circulation. The coastal should tank out quickly off the VA coast but prolly a tad N, at least IMO. As ORH said there is a legitimate chance the inland low actually tracks well NW of its current position. DC/BA and NOVA is once again in the middle under such a scenario, but I do believe snow is likely with much better eventual totals along the coast and Delmarva. Trends with the development of the inland primary will need to be watched. It does seem possible there will be a minor screwzone somewhere in between all the chaos of the coastal developing low and the inland primary. Exactly where tough to tell still. For now, the type of snow totals Ian/Wes suggested are pretty good overall IMO with a solid 2-4" inland, chance for 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A lot of different scenarios can still play out. It is almost a sure bet though, even based of the GFS and its own dynamic/kinematic fields, is that there will be a more impressive and stronger primary surface low/inverted trough over the OV as it heads E. It is seemingly impossible to have a low amplitude S/W like the GFS does interacting with a amplified upper level ridge and simply passing through it in such a weak way. Forced ascent aloft with that shortwave (DPVA) will develop a stronger low level circulation NW and will also enhance the warm air advection off the coast. It is likely that the low off the coast tracks closer inland as a result of the stronger primary circulation. The coastal should tank out quickly off the VA coast but prolly a tad N, at least IMO. As ORH said there is a legitimate chance the inland low actually tracks well NW of its current position. DC/BA and NOVA is once again in the middle under such a scenario, but I do believe snow is likely with much better eventuial totals along the coast and Delmarva. Trends with the development of the inland primary will need to be watched. It does seem likely there will be a minor screwzone somewhere in between all the chaos of the coastal devleoping low and the inland primary. Exactly where tough to tell still. Thanks for the follow up. Been in the back of my mind for a while that we may have rain/snow/sleet issues fairly far inland on the coast and now reading your reply it sounds like we may have issues with it to the south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06Z GFS mean looks west of the OP again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Total precip GFS Ensemble looks better then the OP. 06Z Ensemble 06Z OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For those interested on where the 850 line sets up. Looks like EVA on up through EMD and DEL have issues with precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like the rich get richer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 rain and 38, ugh. does seem hopeful we can get dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 rain and 38, ugh. does seem hopeful we can get dryslotted. Isn't that determined between the 700mb low and the 500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hmm, might have to believe more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A snow squall is trundling east with tendency toward negative tilt later in the morning. The deliciousness of that negative tilt will determine how much bonus snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 06Z DGEX total precip. Central and Southern VA probably not accurate because precip has fallen before the time frame. Looks like N Jersey on up gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 one thing that was concerning about the op euro at 0z was the miller b precip pattern.. we had good bit more qpf here but we're right on the line. i think either way we're locking in for some snow.. i guess i may need to raise my number a bit if 'trends' hold, but i'm nervous about the evolution still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 one thing that was concerning about the op euro at 0z was the miller b precip pattern.. we had good bit more qpf here but we're right on the line. i think either way we're locking in for some snow.. i guess i may need to raise my number a bit if 'trends' hold, but i'm nervous about the evolution still. Can't see the members of the Euro but looking at the 06Z GFS members most show the precip starting to kick in around the DC and Baltimore area. It's a concern of mine as well that we could actually see the low crank a little farther north and take us out of that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 one thing that was concerning about the op euro at 0z was the miller b precip pattern.. we had good bit more qpf here but we're right on the line. i think either way we're locking in for some snow.. i guess i may need to raise my number a bit if 'trends' hold, but i'm nervous about the evolution still. The wetter but closer the edge scenario was the one that I guess several of us were asking for. Hope I don't pay for my wish for that with 33 and rain. Course, as dry as its been, I still didn't want to see another one slide by with us fringed and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 baroclinic_instability had discussed earlier on that he felt the low to the west would be stronger and drive farther into the OV. If this would be the case I think we would see most of our snow from that and not the coastal low as it cranks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The wetter but closer the edge scenario was the one that I guess several of us were asking for. Hope I don't pay for my wish for that with 33 and rain. Course, as dry as its been, I still didn't want to see another one slide by with us fringed and dry. My thinking is still, that the coastal will be right on the coast but if we do get a stronger low to the west I think that would take away any benefit of that for our area as well as cause precip type issues farther inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Temp profile from the DGEX isn't pretty as the bulk of the storm is moving through. This is close to having mixing issues all the way into the DC, Balt corridor. 850's 2M Temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yea, double barreled lows are never good for virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yea, double barreled lows are never good for virginia It is what it is. This is not going to be an easy winter for our region one way or the other. At least something will be falling from the sky on Tuesday, apparently. That's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It is what it is. This is not going to be an easy winter for our region one way or the other. At least something will be falling from the sky on Tuesday, apparently. That's a start. She got 15" from that post Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 She got 15" from that post Christmas storm. Oh, I retract my sympathy. May her rain be my gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Might be time for the long lost storm where it is better to be north and west of the cities. Haven't seen that in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Might be time for the long lost storm where it is better to be north and west of the cities. Haven't seen that in a long time. Or we just have what we have now and everybody's pretty much satisified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Or we just have what we have now and everybody's pretty much satisified. Yes, it is very "satisfying" to keep getting dusting after dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes, it is very "satisfying" to keep getting dusting after dusting. Don't reply to me Faisal. Nobody said anything about any past situation. We're talking about the storm as modeled by the Euro last night. STFU and stop being a busybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Is there a long analog list of strong Nina's where there was the degree of blocking we have this year? I am not sure we can simply rely on climo for a nina to discout any threat as unlikely because climo for a nina also argued the NAO should average positive this year. My issue with Nina years isn't whether or not you can get persistent high lat blocking. It's the tendency for a relatively quiet s-stream. This means the chances of meaningful snowfall in DC are reliant on a split n-stream or a very rare s-stream s/w. Alas when Nina years offer a one of the two prior chances they also tend to feature an already in place, fairly strong HP from Canada, and a tendency of any east coast trough to be pretty dramatically deep, albeit transient. Thus the SE, SNE and eastern NE tend to do far better than we. As do points along and west of the Apps and into the OV as the other path for southern systems would tend to be along somewhere to our west as the usually transient block lifts out and NE. Take for instance the position of today's and the last block's, center of greatest height anomalies. They started further east well over GL. They're now well back over Hudson's Bay. This puts the core of the greatest negative anomalies right over, or very near, us. This isn't the perfect scenario for a coastal hugging nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nams into it's run. PV is exiting quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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