stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I wonder if Ian will now bail on the outlier GFS? "meh, i guess the Euro is a bit better. 500 still isn't ideal. eh, climatology suggests it won't look like this and can't really amplify that much. Here's a positive nugget, followed by a bunch more negative stuff". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So where is Ian with his "meh"? No, he'd say, "hmm, interesting I guess." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The Philly/NYC forum makes me want to kick a bunny. So many weenies, so much self-centered preening. Ugh. its alright I got my pound of flesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 its alright I got my pound of flesh Hey hoffman, you worried sick over this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Fast mover No kidding, its got a 130 kt jet on its @*$ and 1047mb high diving into Nebraska! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 "meh, i guess the Euro is a bit better. 500 still isn't ideal. eh, climatology suggests it won't look like this and can't really amplify that much. Here's a positive nugget, followed by a bunch more negative stuff". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Day 7 850 map of N America so does that real cold air ever make it down here or not? if it does, it won't until after we get a brief warm-up it seems to me http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=7day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hey Midlo, let us know about 9-10 Day overrunning possibilities that were showing up on the 12Z please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I posted it in the NE subforum, but not sure if anyone already mentioned it as I didn't read pages from earlier this afternoon.....this looks eerily similar to March 1960 in just about every aspect....NAO block, AK block, and CONUS trough are almost identical. The only difference was it was just a shade north of the trough position in 1960 so its overall a slightly further north development. But I thought the comparison was pretty fascinating. Obviously everything would have to break perfect to get it to that storm's magnitude, but its a good sign that a storm has a good chance to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I posted it in the NE subforum, but not sure if anyone already mentioned it as I didn't read pages from earlier this afternoon.....this looks eerily similar to March 1960 in just about every aspect....NAO block, AK block, and CONUS trough are almost identical. The only difference was it was just a shade north of the trough position in 1960 so its overall a slightly further north development. But I thought the comparison was pretty fascinating. Obviously everything would have to break perfect to get it to that storm's magnitude, but its a good sign that a storm has a good chance to occur. Will, didn't Jerry mention that the other day as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will, didn't Jerry mention that the other day as well? I remember it. When the 12z GFS had it at Day 7... he mentioned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 HOW BOUT SOME BOM BABY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will, didn't Jerry mention that the other day as well? He might have, he was mentioning Dec '60 before, but he might have said March too. Obviously nobody should expect a storm of that magnitude right now, so its probably dangerous to even mention it because some will take that as a forecast....but it shows that this type of pattern can produce a good storm. Its not 100% ideal pattern because there isn't much of a ridge out west for it....but in Mar '60 there wasn't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Midlo, how about that 9-10 day period on Eurp, though the BOM is much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 He might have, he was mentioning Dec '60 before, but he might have said March too. Obviously nobody should expect a storm of that magnitude right now, so its probably dangerous to even mention it because some will take that as a forecast....but it shows that this type of pattern can produce a good storm. Its not 100% ideal pattern because there isn't much of a ridge out west for it....but in Mar '60 there wasn't either. you're right, it was 12/60 come to think of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 He might have, he was mentioning Dec '60 before, but he might have said March too. Obviously nobody should expect a storm of that magnitude right now, so its probably dangerous to even mention it because some will take that as a forecast....but it shows that this type of pattern can produce a good storm. Its not 100% ideal pattern because there isn't much of a ridge out west for it....but in Mar '60 there wasn't either. Will, do you have any maps from that storm? I can't find much online except hyperbole about lobster boats being overturned and NYC tourists being stranded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will, do you have any maps from that storm? I can't find much online except hyperbole about lobster boats being overturned and NYC tourists being stranded. Dec 1960 -- http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/19601211-19601213-4.53.jpg March 1960 -- http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/19600302-19600305-8.77.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Will, do you have any maps from that storm? I can't find much online except hyperbole about lobster boats being overturned and NYC tourists being stranded. If you have the Kocin 2 volumes, its on page 387...if not, I think there is a snowfall map of it on the NESIS site. The upper air maps are hard to come by from then, though plymouth state weather can probably do the reanalysis. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_036m.gif If someone doesn't post it in the next 10-15 min, I can do it, but just trying to finish something up here. It was kind of a hybrid Miller B storm much like is currently being modeled. It was a solid 8-12" storm for DCA/BWI areas and then it destroyed SNE later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nasty torch 1/16/11 +8 into va dc +4 +8c in northwestern nebraska and -24c over southwestern north dakota you ought to see the gradiant over south dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hey hoffman, you worried sick over this run? I'm worried about the Sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 +8 to NY cold is out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 He might have, he was mentioning Dec '60 before, but he might have said March too. Obviously nobody should expect a storm of that magnitude right now, so its probably dangerous to even mention it because some will take that as a forecast....but it shows that this type of pattern can produce a good storm. Its not 100% ideal pattern because there isn't much of a ridge out west for it....but in Mar '60 there wasn't either. I was looking at that storm in the KU book the other day because it struck me as similar but would not mention it because of what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 nasty torch 1/16/11 +8 into va dc +4 +8c in northwestern nebraska and -24c over southwestern north dakota you ought to see the gradiant over south dakota which days? 8, 9 or 10 (or all of them?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 which days? 8, 9 or 10 (or all of them?) Pretty sure all of them. ORH says SNE is torching at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro site just updated looks like all the cold is on our side of the Pole the cold mass is slowly moving SE by Day 10 fwiw N Hemisphere: http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011010800!!/ N America: http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011010800!!/ EDIT: I see a Ridge starting to show up SW of Greenland by Day 10 Maybe the start of the next round of a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro site just updated looks like all the cold is on our side of the Pole the cold mass is slowly moving SE by Day 10 fwiw N Hemisphere: http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011010800!!/ N America: http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2011010800!!/ Yeah the cold is going to get back in behind that monster cuter low but that is an ugly torch with the wave on the Arctic front forming too far north. Nice -NAO building back in at Day 10 with arctic air coming into the picture, but we need the arctic front to track further south to avoid this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 day 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Per Dendrite -- 2m temps in the 60s in the Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro has a nice trough over Japan on Day 10 so the trough should come back in over the east coast iow, that blob of cold in Canada should make it our way, but not to that magnitude of course http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011010800!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Per Dendrite -- 2m temps in the 60s in the Ohio Valley 60's to dc as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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