Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 it's not good news for me either... Ji posted a thread in our regional forum last nite to tell me unequivocally this would NOT be a cutter. Lee than posted that I had claimed it would be a cutter, (which i never did). Just catching up those who think this is an unprovoked troll...it's actually a retaliatory troll when more than model shows a cutter, i might believe it. We know how well outliers have done this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 it's not good news for me either... Ji posted a thread in our regional forum last nite to tell me unequivocally this would NOT be a cutter. Lee than posted that I had claimed it would be a cutter, (which i never did). Just catching up those who think this is an unprovoked troll...it's actually a retaliatory troll yep, if it does cut i will move it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 it's not good news for me either... Ji posted a thread in our regional forum last nite to tell me unequivocally this would NOT be a cutter. Lee than posted that I had claimed it would be a cutter, (which i never did). Just catching up those who think this is an unprovoked troll...it's actually a retaliatory troll Ha...I amended my post later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Was looking over 500mb's for the 2'nd storm on the GFS and saw something that concerned me and I wonder if that is why you have the GGEM solution. If you look at the 72 hr GFS you see that the southwest low is finally ejecting. If you also notice up to the north you have energy sliding south down the coast. I would think if the GFS is a little slower on ejecting the southwest short wave you may have issues with it phasing with the northern energy and having it cut up into the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So I just got the Bufkit files in for the 12z.. The good news is that if your north of DC, a very very shallow pocket of sub 32° hangs around through hr. 180 at about 950 mb mark (1400 feet) The bad news is that if your south of DC on this run... yeah, its not pretty. The storm moves hundreds of miles every six hours, but let's worry about surface temps 192 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Was looking over 500mb's for the 2'nd storm on the GFS and saw something that concerned me and I wonder if that is why you have the GGEM solution. If you look at the 72 hr GFS you see that the southwest low is finally ejecting. If you also notice up to the north you have energy sliding south down the coast. I would think if the GFS is a little slower on ejecting the southwest short wave you may have issues with it phasing with the northern energy and having it cut up into the midwest. Meant to also say that the GFS at this point squashes that short wave and leaves the door open for our second storm. If it were to intereact with the northern shortwave and drive into the lakes then it would screw up the set up for storm number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 when more than model shows a cutter, i might believe it. We know how well outliers have done this year. Unfortunately, several of the ensemble members from last night had a solution that took the low into the oh valley or the lakes so it's not completely on its own. Plus, if you look at the gfs 850 low, it's pretty far north. I'm guessing that the euro will track the primary low into at least the oh valley. That's what the euro ensembles did last nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The storm moves hundreds of miles every six hours, but let's worry about surface temps 192 hours out. Agreed, but its good to know that with that certian set-up you can expect that result. I know the system (if it even comes) will not be at that exact location, but this provides a base-line, so we can say later. "Well, we know from that 12z run that X happens, and now its X miles farther west and XYZ is different, so we can expect this"... Its like a creating a database of baseline markers to follow later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 What does it show for this Friday and sat.? mid west cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z euro looks great at 500mb so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z euro hr. 120 1004mb low southern miss snow into southern tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 12z euro hr. 120 1004mb low southern miss snow into southern tenn. Oh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 126 snow into western nc 1004 mb low southern ga miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 126 snow into western nc 1004 mb low southern ga miss The vortex over the great lakes sure is different than shown on the other models. It will be interesting to see what the euro ensemble mean shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 The Euro is way different by day 5....no mix threat here.. if I didn't know better, it might try and phase the southern vort with the lingering 500mb vort (over MI) from the Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 132 1008 low sc ga coast snow into southern va 0c rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 and OTS lol 0.05 to ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 hr 132 1008 low sc ga coast snow into southern va 0c rdu the LP is weakning. Dont like that. side note: Amazing how philly weenies can take .13 of qpf and make it into a 3-6 inch event(per Euro qpf totals) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 and OTS lol 0.05 to ric Ok...compromise this with the GFS and GGEM and you have a nice little storm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 500 low just gets crushed into nothing and it weakens the storm as it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 but that 132 storm isnt the main storm anyway..its always gotten crushed on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 so at hr 144 the ggem has a low over iowa and the euro has the low way east of sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 So we have one into the lakes one a little too far North before redevelopment for our liking one ots ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Storm still sitting in the Plains at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 far better than the gfs. south and nothing is better than north and rain. much better so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 one met I,ve read said that the flow was becoming tooooo progressive and big storm may not hapen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Ok...compromise this with the GFS and GGEM and you have a nice little storm for DC Basically, the models are telling us there will be a storm somewhere between the Mississippi River and the Atlantic round about eight days from now. We live in the most exciting of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Storm still sitting in the Plains at 150 yea that 1032mb low is a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I hate all these wild ass solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Basically, the models are telling us there will be a storm somewhere between the Mississippi River and the Atlantic round about eight days from now. We live in the most exciting of times. Quite a stretch by the models there. Next thing you know, they'll be telling us that June is warmer than January and that there will be a longer period of sunlight tomorrow than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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