mattie g Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 That's one feeble coastal on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 you watched jb's vid too eh? he has used that line for the last 95 east coast snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 he has used that line for the last 95 east coast snowstorms definitely one of his favorites. you ever noticed he always picks on the gfs when it's not showing a storm and talks about it's usual errors. Yet all he says about the euro, (which also isn't showing a storm), is "the euro hasn't come around yet". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 definitely one of his favorites. you ever noticed he always picks on the gfs when it's not showing a storm and talks about it's usual errors. Yet all he says about the euro, (which also isn't showing a storm), is "the euro hasn't come around yet". lol How about, "I got the meteorology right but the weather wrong!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The Ji storm next weekend looks pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 How about, "I got the meteorology right but the weather wrong!" if we all lived at h5 he would be a god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And now we wait to see how much of an outlier the operational GFS is with its ensembles. The gap has been growing each cycle. And that gap is the Nogaps... another great hit... probably about 25mm or so. Hasnt budged from this solution since it came into range Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 if we all lived at h5 he would be a god :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And that gap is the Nogaps... another great hit... probably about 25mm or so. Hasnt budged from this solution since it came into range Monday. Again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Again? about 1 inch qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 about 1 inch qpf? That would be about right with 25mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ukie at 72 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And that gap is the Nogaps... another great hit... probably about 25mm or so. Hasnt budged from this solution since it came into range Monday. do you have a link for the nogaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I really am astonished at how consistent the NOGAPS has been...I mean granted, it is almost certainly going to be consistently WRONG, but the startling metronome-like regularity with which it has been spitting out essentially the exact same solution for literally DAYS now has me in awe. Maybe it broke and someone in Annapolis is just releasing the same forecast from 4 days ago ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol, the NOGAPS is such crap...but i like that its trying to make a name for itself. I'm pulling for ya NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Do you have the frame before that Dr No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol, the NOGAPS is such crap...but i like that its trying to make a name for itself. I'm pulling for ya NOGAPS If it manages to pull off this most unlikely of coups, I suggest we change the name to the YESGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 do you have a link for the nogaps? https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=ngp_namer&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here's 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 lol, the NOGAPS is such crap...but i like that its trying to make a name for itself. I'm pulling for ya NOGAPS I remember back in 98 and 99 at PSU we would actually look at the NOGAPS a lot. Not because it was any good but there wasn't that much guidance past day 3 back then. AVN only went to 72 hours. MRF went to 10 days but it was only run once a day. Same with Euro and it was impossible to get much on it until 7pm almost. ETA and NGM went to 48 hours. I remember Dr. Neese yelling at us one time for analyzing a day 5 storm on the NOGAPS in the weather station. lol It used to flip around crazy from one run to the next. I never remember it having one solution locked in like this over and over. I wonder if there is something in its progressive bias that would cause this solution. Perhaps it moving the western energy in faster and allowing a better phase with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 According to tombo ...0z gfs ens mean is hse to over or just se of the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FWIW... NOGAPS is a bit warm in the 850 department at 90.... then crashes at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 As expected, the 00Z GFS ensembles are NW of the operational and show a nice hit. In other news, the GGEM appears to have backed way off from 00Z last night and now resembles the Euro, maybe a bit more impressive. Consensus building... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FWIW... NOGAPS is a bit warm in the 850 department hoW is that graphic warm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FWIW... NOGAPS is a bit warm in the 850 department at 90.... then crashes at 96 Yoda, have a little self-respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 FWIW... NOGAPS is a bit warm in the 850 department at 90.... then crashes at 96 it will have to be, if we want heavy precip we need good moisture advection off the atlantic from the coastal, but with that also comes WAA at some levels... to get the big win you have to dance with the devil when things are not lined up perfectly like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GEFS is slightly west of op, but look at that big fat blue line. Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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