psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Can you point out which ones show that? I see one, at least. ARW1 ARW3 ARW4 RSM1 RSM2 RSM3 RSM4 ETA3 ETA5 RSM 3 and 4 are a total disaster and would be nothing at all the others in that cluster would be very little, maybe 1-2" and Philly north might do well as the secondary finally takes over in total 9 out of 21 SREF members are a bad solution, but none because the storm is OTS, its because they take the primary west and north of us Of course that leaves 11 that are pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS anybody? The Southeast crew all over the early play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 [earthlight] Looks better. Trying so hard. So close. Will it make it? [/earthlight] everytime earthlight asks that question..the phase misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Well, if you take some of those runs of the GFS at face value, you won't see any real snow chances when whatever cold air we get backs off. Not saying they're right (we are talking 10 days out or so), but some of those cycles sure don't seem to indicate good snow chances in the medium-longer range. I am not concerned. GFS still struggles with 48 hours out. Why look at 200+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Precip further north at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ARW1 ARW3 ARW4 RSM1 RSM2 RSM3 RSM4 ETA3 ETA5 RSM 3 and 4 are a total disaster and would be nothing at all the others in that cluster would be very little, maybe 1-2" and Philly north might do well as the secondary finally takes over in total 9 out of 21 SREF members are a bad solution, but none because the storm is OTS, its because they take the primary west and north of us Of course that leaves 11 that are pretty good You are doing some generous extrapolation of those runs, IMO. It doesn't matter either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Precip further north at 66 No it's not. The same look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 a 90 precip is further north looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Better than 18z. Dark green moving further NW, but still has that anemic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 At hr 90 nam would have more precip with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I am not concerned. GFS still struggles with 48 hours out. Why look at 200+? Very true, of course...if you're looking for specific storms, etc., I agree. But at those ranges of course I'm just looking to see what the overall, longwave flow indicates, and using it for that isn't all that bad. My point really was that for some time, the GFS in the longer ranges looked consistently cold, and there was a substantial Arctic outbreak in the offing. Now, there have been at least a few cycles that have backed way off from that, even to the point that it's not all that cold here behind whatever front goes through next weekend...and the flow then lifts significantly from what it showed for so long before that. Now the ensemble mean has been a little different, as one might expect. Again, not talking specific 300+ hour fantasy storms, but the main overall flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS still a mess but it still gives us now. Its going to be hard for us not to get at least 2-3 inches from this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Through 90HR has a nicer look than 18z. Nice move back off the ledge by the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS still a mess but it still gives us now. Its going to be hard for us not to get at least 2-3 inches from this storm A little better than 18z, but not much. 1-3..2-4 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Precip field is a little weird. Low looks closer at 102 but precip is pretty tightly wrapped. Decent track on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Through 90HR has a nicer look than 18z. Nice move back off the ledge by the GFS tonight. we end up with .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Better than 18z. Dark green moving further NW, but still has that anemic look. yea one thing the low is further west as it goes up the coast from va on, that could help things in the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A little better than 18z, but not much. 1-3..2-4 this run. Please do not just look at the colors over your house. The track is more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 we end up with .25". I think the low shifted back west a bit as well. Certainly seems more impressive than the wispy 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS will be a nice outlier when the Euro dumps .4 to .6 over the area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A 2-4 inch storm is not bad at all. This winter I'd take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Please do not just look at the colors over your house. The track is more west. Good point. However, we all looked at the track on 12/26 and thought the precip field would be better given the track of the slp...did not work out too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs having major feedback problems with the front runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Good point. However, we all looked at the track on 12/26 and thought the precip field would be better given the track of the slp...did not work out too well. We were kind of doomed with that one, though. Wes even said with that one that it really had to work out just right for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think the low shifted back west a bit as well. Certainly seems more impressive than the wispy 18Z. Definitely looks farther west, but still ends up shifting off to the east too much. Maybe not important now, but the QPF field still looks kind of anemic overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And now we wait to see how much of an outlier the operational GFS is with its ensembles. The gap has been growing each cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And now we wait to see how much of an outlier the operational GFS is with its ensembles. The gap has been growing each cycle. Something has to cave soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It clearly moved west: 00Z 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah, solid jump back. Nice move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 gfs having major feedback problems with the front runner you watched jb's vid too eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.