Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 the low to the west is still the primary circulation, the h5 has to catch up faster and energize the coastal and let moisture advection begin before it is further north and too late for our area. Its a race against time. The inverted trough will be slowly sliding north as the h5 energy rides east along it. If the h5 can catch it before it moves north of us we are ok. If not....congrats NYC again. when is the last time "timing" worked out well for us in a La Nina. I think we get 2-5 inches and there is better potential towards the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 the mass panic the evening of the Feb 10th storm was funny as the radar was dried up and we waited for the upper level energy to bomb the coastal and get the deform band going right on top of us. i wasnt panicing. I had 34 inches on the ground already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 when is the last time "timing" worked out well for us in a La Nina. I think we get 2-5 inches and there is better potential towards the end of next week and what's wrong with that? we knew it wouldn't be a repeat of last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 when is the last time "timing" worked out well for us in a La Nina. I think we get 2-5 inches and there is better potential towards the end of next week Tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 when is the last time "timing" worked out well for us in a La Nina. I think we get 2-5 inches and there is better potential towards the end of next week the storm the end of next week is a quick thump snow to ice scenario, trough axis is way too far west but cold is locked in. Its definitely not the setup for a MECS or anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the storm the end of next week is a quick thump snow to ice scenario, trough axis is way too far east but cold is locked in. Its definitely not the setup for a MECS or anything Fortunately the models are dead on with the setup 8-9 days out and won't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Fortunately the models are dead on with the setup 8-9 days out and won't change. of course they will but he is talking about the setup having potential and as of right now it is NOT looking better then the potential for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 of course they will but he is talking about the setup having potential and as of right now it is NOT looking better then the potential for Tuesday. this looks more exciting that the tues storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 this looks more exciting that the tues storm That probably won't be there in about 50 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 almost every SREF is hugging the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Some really nice looking runs in that SREF package. They burned me badly last storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Some really nice looking runs in that SREF package. They burned me badly last storm, though. I think there was more of a spread though. Those seem mighty close to each other for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 this looks more exciting that the tues storm I apologize, a low over Michigan with a trailing cold front is a perfect setup for a HECS here. Do you look at anything other then the pretty colors on the models Ji????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 All the models show a spell where the coastal low fizzles and we have to wait around for the northern stream impulse to energize it. If this storm comes to pass the radar will be ugly for a while and many weenies will bail. I've already bailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think there was more of a spread though. Those seem mighty close to each other for the most part. No, The sref was pretty adamant about the last storm. They are part of the reason the CWG held onto our forecast too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I apologize, a low over Michigan with a trailing cold front is a perfect setup for a HECS here. Do you look at anything other then the pretty colors on the models Ji????? Did I say HECS? I just said it looks more exciting...heavy snow to ice to arctic air coming through. Not every storm that i like has to be the blizzard of 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 No, The sref was pretty adamant about the last storm. They are part of the reason the CWG held onto our forecast too long. it probably wont burn you again though. Didnt you saw it was right up there with the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think there was more of a spread though. Those seem mighty close to each other for the most part. Nah, as Wes said they were locked-in. Almost shockingly so. They busted big. In this case, they are backed up by the Euro ensembles, however. The GFS ensembles mostly agree as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Some really nice looking runs in that SREF package. They burned me badly last storm, though. also some showing the solution i do not want to see, the primary holding on way too long and going north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 also some showing the solution i do not want to see, the primary holding on way too long and going north of us. Can you point out which ones show that? I see one, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Perhaps a little off-topic from the system next week, but I didn't see a whole lot of discussion on this. That is, has anyone else noticed that at least the GFS seems to have backed away from its previously and consistently advertised major Arctic outbreak (and remaining fairly cold through its duration, well into the second half of January)? To the point that there was talk about this being one of the colder Januaries that we've seen in awhile. In recent days, however, at least a few cycles of that model have been less emphatic. Yes, there is a period of sharp cold sometime around or just after next weekend, but the GFS has been shunting it more east (rather than plunging it south with a deep almost N-S trough as it showed for some time), and then whatever cold air comes in lifts out a whole lot faster and the flow relaxes quite a bit. Not to the point of being a torch, but certainly not all that great looking if you want winter weather. I think the GFS ensemble means are more in line with this outbreak still occurring, but I'd be interested in other thoughts on this. Just more uncertainty or a trend here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Nah, as Wes said they were locked-in. Almost shockingly so. They busted big. In this case, they are backed up by the Euro ensembles, however. The GFS ensembles mostly agree as well. Yeah I guess you're right. My memory of these failures is about as good as my untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Wes is a good luck charm- when he stays up for the GFS, it's a money run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Perhaps a little off-topic from the system next week, but I didn't see a whole lot of discussion on this. That is, has anyone else noticed that at least the GFS seems to have backed away from its previously and consistently advertised major Arctic outbreak (and remaining fairly cold through its duration, well into the second half of January)? To the point that there was talk about this being one of the colder Januaries that we've seen in awhile. In recent days, however, at least a few cycles of that model have been less emphatic. Yes, there is a period of sharp cold sometime around or just after next weekend, but the GFS has been shunting it more east (rather than plunging it south with a deep almost N-S trough as it showed for some time), and then whatever cold air lifts out a whole lot faster and the flow relaxes quite a bit. Not to the point of being a torch, but certainly not all that great looking if you want winter weather. I think the GFS ensemble means are more in line with this outbreak still occurring, but I'd be interested in other thoughts on this. Just more uncertainty or a trend here? I hope the cold backs off. We need a relaxation to increase our snow chances, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I hope the cold backs off. We need a relaxation to increase our snow chances, I think. You're right maybe, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS anybody? compared to 12z 500 looks better 18z crap always jumps around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 compared to 12z 500 looks better 18z crap always jumps around Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS anybody? [earthlight] Looks better. Trying so hard. So close. Will it make it? [/earthlight] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I hope the cold backs off. We need a relaxation to increase our snow chances, I think. Well, if you take some of those runs of the GFS at face value, you won't see any real snow chances when whatever cold air we get backs off. Not saying they're right (we are talking 10 days out or so), but some of those cycles sure don't seem to indicate good snow chances in the medium-longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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